College football power ratings: Ohio State, Texas lead list of top teams heading into 2025 season
The Buckeyes and Longhorns start the year on top, but the gap is closing as college football takes a step toward parity
By
Tom Fornelli
•
9 min read
It's an interesting time in college football, and for once, I'm not talking about anything happening off the field. As the 2025 season begins, I can't shake the feeling that I don't know what's going to happen. At least, not with the same misplaced confidence I usually have.
What's happening off the field is shaping the product on it, particularly in the national title race. The College Football Playoff tends to dominate the conversation, but for all its flaws and ripple effects elsewhere, the reality is the 2025 chase feels wide open.
At least, as wide open as it realistically gets.
Parity has long been a pipe dream in college football, but there's at least a version of it in today's game. I've argued an expanded playoff shrinks the number of teams capable of winning the national title in a given season, but who those teams are seems to change year to year. In the past, if you gave me three picks before the season, odds were one would win it. This year, I'm not nearly as sure.
The portal and NIL have helped even out top-tier rosters, as has the loss of extended COVID eligibility -- no more 25-year-old quarterbacks sticking around. Programs such as Ohio State will always hover near the top, but maybe the Buckeyes spend a season sitting sixth before climbing back into the top two.
Those shifts have reshaped my power ratings as well. The gap at the top isn't nearly as wide as it used to be. Another change: I've never shared these ratings publicly. This season, I will.
Every week of the regular season, I'll release my top 12 teams. Why 12? Because that's how many make the CFP. If the bracket expands, so will my list.
These are power ratings, not a poll. If No. 1 loses a close game, there's a good chance it stays No. 1. Think of it this way: if I rank you first, I'd favor you over No. 2 on a neutral field. Same for No. 2 over No. 3, and so on.
The order will evolve as we learn more about teams, though not with the knee-jerk swings you see in polls built solely on results. Injuries and other factors will matter too. There's a long season ahead, but before most of the country has taken a snap, here's where things stand.
All listed odds courtesy of Fanduel.
2025 Preseason Fornelli Power Ratings
| 1 |  |
| Ohio State may summarize everything I mentioned about the uncertainty surrounding the sport's title picture. These are your defending champions, but a lot of key pieces from last year's team are gone, including the QB. At the same time, it's still Ohio State, and the Buckeyes aren't the only team with questions at those same positions. Plus, it's a program that recruits well enough that you give it some benefit of the doubt. All that said, I have never had a preseason No. 1 team with a rating as low as Ohio State's this season, and I've been doing those for over a decade. Furthermore, if we consider Ohio State is currently a 1.5-point favorite at home against my No. 2 team this week, it seems my ratings are slightly different than the overall market. Title Odds: (+650) | |
| 2 |  |
| Another talented, inexperienced team. Seriously, it's a theme this year. Steve Sarkisian's Longhorns have reached the Final Four the last two years, but have yet to get to a title game. There's talent all over the two-deep, but can both lines of scrimmage reload well enough to stay near the top? Also, can Arch Manning live up to the hype that comes with his last name? This team is the current favorite to win it all for plenty of reasons. That said, I'm not making the bet at current prices because Texas still needs to get through the SEC, and is far from a lock to secure a first-round bye because of it. Now that the seeding has changed, that bye becomes far more important. Title Odds: (+550) | |
| 3 |  |
| I haven't been so uncertain about a Georgia team entering a season since Kirby Smart's first year. Last year's offensive line play wasn't up to the high standard set by the program in recent seasons, and the strength of it (the interior) has moved on. I have no idea what to expect from Gunner Stockton. The defense is losing key pieces. They're still this high because they still dominate recruiting, and that talent could allow them to dominate yet again. It could also be a reset season! It's a fascinating team to watch in 2025. Title Odds: (+700) | |
| 4 |  |
| Like everybody ahead of the Tide, I have questions about the QB. I don't have nearly as many questions about Kalen DeBoer, whom I firmly believe is one of the best coaches in the country, and that factors into how I rate teams. There are plenty of coaches whom I consider a detriment to their team. Even if DeBoer's in a tough spot of replacing the greatest coach of all time, he is not one of them. I know Alabama missed the playoff last year, but the truth is this team was only a few plays away from being in the CFP. And, trust me, none of the 12 teams that did make the field were wishing Alabama was in it. Title Odds: (+900) | |
| 5 |  |
| I get why Penn State will receive plenty of love in preseason opinion polls, considering what it has coming back. But while it has a lot coming back, it's still a team that hasn't proven itself capable of breaking through to the elite tier! Now, that said, experience matters, and players do improve with it, so I've certainly taken that into account with my preseason rating. But while experience is great, my theory is now that we're getting past the era of 24-year-old COVID seniors, the power shift will tilt back in talent's general direction. Penn State is clearly a very talented team, which is why it's fifth, but a lot of folks seem to gloss over the fact this squad lost its best player on both sides of the ball. That has an impact. Then there are the results we all know about. A team that doesn't beat top-five teams on the field will have a tough time climbing higher than No. 5 in a power rating until they do so. Title Odds: (+700) | |
| 6 |  |
| Here's a team that could make my preseason rating look ridiculous if C.J. Carr brings a passing threat to the offense. Just think about how good this team was last season when opponents didn't fear the QB's ability to throw the ball. If this offense shows the capability to stretch the field vertically, combined with what it has on defense, we're suddenly looking at a very real title threat. I know. Crazy thing to say about a team that literally reached the title game last year, right? There's an argument to be made that Notre Dame's two toughest games will be the first two it plays, so I wouldn't be shocked if we see a slower start. However, I don't know how much of an impact that will have on their overall standing here, unless the Irish look truly inferior, or suffer injuries. Title Odds: (+1500) | |
| 7 |  |
| Last year's Clemson team had plenty of warts, but it was a team I felt was playing its best football at the end of the season, even though it lost two of its final three games. We all know Cade Klubnik is back, but what has me bullish on the Tigers is most of the offensive line returns, and the unit gave me hope last year. There's also a freakish collection of talent on defense. I'm not fully buying the idea of Dabo stunting on the country with a third natty, but I can see this team cruising through the ACC on its way to a first-round bye for sure. Also, while there aren't odds available on this, if I were to bet on one team who I think I'd be adjusting my rating for the most in the early weeks, it's this one. There's still that voice in the back of my head that isn't overly sold on this squad. The season opener against LSU, where Clemson is currently favored by 3.5 could tell us a lot about both teams. Title Odds: (+1200) | |
| 8 |  |
| It's time for all those recruiting classes to shine. Dan Lanning and company have amassed plenty of talent in Eugene, and with so many veterans moving on, they get their shot. My expectation is that this team will take a slight step back offensively. With Dillon Gabriel gone, Evan Stewart hurt and the loss of two starting tackles, we could see a slightly more ground-and-pound approach. It'll still be effective if not quite as explosive. I also expect we'll see them make up for that on the defensive side of the ball. The Ducks could prove to be the best defense in the country by the time it's all said and done. Title Odds: (+1400) | |
| 9 |  |
| There's plenty of variance here. Of the teams in my top 12, I think LSU is as good as anybody if it hits its ceiling. Unfortunately, its floor is probably lower than everybody else here, too. There are concerns on the offensive line, but this team should find ways to score plenty of points considering its QB and skill talent. But can the defense finally take a step up and help the Tigers win games against good teams? As for this week's contest against Clemson, the 3.5 points spread suggests the market isn't too different on both teams than I am. If Clemson's home field advantage is worth 3 points, that would suggest these teams are just about equal. Title Odds: (+1300) | |
| 10 |  |
| You probably think this feels high. I get it. I think it feels a bit high myself! What's important to remember here, though, is that Michigan went 8-5 last year despite putrid QB play and missing its best corner for half the season. Whether it's Mikey Keene or Bryce Underwood, I am extremely confident the Wolverines will get better play from the QB position in 2025. I'm also confident there's enough talent on the roster that the losses on defense can be overcome. The ceiling isn't as high here in the post-Harbaugh era (not yet, anyway), but the floor still feels solid. This week's game against New Mexico won't tell us anything in either direction, but that Week 2 road game against Oklahoma will tell us a lot. Title Odds: (+3500) | |
| 11 |  |
| It will all depend on the QB. I love the running backs, I like the WR corps and I have faith in the offensive line. Defensively, the Aggies lost talent, but I'll be long dead before I stop having faith in a Mike Elko defense. The question is whether or not Marcel Reed can be a consistent difference-maker. If he can, look out. If he can't? Well, you should probably continue looking out. I won't try to sell you on the Aggies as national title contenders because I don't believe it, but as for a week-to-week basis, this could be one of the more undervalued teams on the market. Title Odds: (+3300) | |
| 12 |  |
| Carson Beck, coming off elbow surgery, is unquestionably a downgrade from Cam Ward. That's a given. However, while Miami's offense may not reach the heights it did last season, it won't have to. The defense will be much improved thanks to a change in philosophy on the sidelines as well as a roster overhaul in the secondary. The Canes will also be at worst the second-best team along the lines of scrimmage in the ACC. They have a chance this week to surprise, as a home date against Notre Dame with a brand-new starting quarterback certainly provides an opportunity. The Canes are currently 2.5-point dogs at home, which isn't far out of line with how I view the teams. Title Odds: (+4000) | |
