The season has begun. Results are in, and outside of one in Ann Arbor, Michigan, nobody is disputing any of them! This is great news for a couple of different reasons. The first is that, after spending all offseason discussing what we think will happen, we have actual results to help us determine what we may have been right about, or what we might be wrong about. The second reason is that it means we just got to spend an entire weekend watching football, and who doesn't love sitting on the couch watching football for an entire holiday weekend?
Still, while that second reason is great, the first one holds more sway here. Notice how I said what we MAY have been right or wrong about? We shouldn't draw any conclusions about one game, especially when it's the first game of the season. In fact, when it comes to power ratings, we shouldn't draw definitive conclusions at any point.
A quick reminder for the 5% of you reading this part who didn't skip to the rankings below: power ratings aren't meant to rank teams based on what they've done this season. They're designed to rank teams based on what they're predicted to do going forward. The wins and losses don't matter as much as the performances. In short, you're trying to strip away the random craziness that can take place in a college football game (a bouncing ball squeezing through four different sets of arms, or an extra second being added to the clock, for example) to find the data that matters. It's the process sportsbooks use to set lines, and gamblers use to try to beat those lines.
They're not infallible. Every week, I go under the hood and look at new data to see what needs to change. So, as you peruse this week's rankings and every set for the rest of the season, remember that the picture is constantly changing, but not in the same reactionary way you'll see in the AP Top 25, Coaches Poll, or even the College Football Playoff rankings.
Title odds via DraftKings
| 1 |  |
| I had Ohio State at No. 1 in the preseason, and while the margin between them and No. 2 is narrow (which is the same for the top eight in general), there wasn't anything in the Buckeyes' 56-3 win over Ball State worth getting excited about or freaking out about. They dominated a team they're supposed to dominate, and looked clean doing so. Title Odds: +550 | |
| 2 |  |
| People will freak out about Oregon playing Boise State so close, but I'm writing most of it off to it being the first game of the season, and operations not being as clean as you'd like. The Ducks are breaking in two new coordinators after all, and they still outgained Boise State 497 yards to 274. If they convert a few fourth-down attempts, the game is likely much more comfortable. That said, the inability to convert on fourth-and-short against a G6 team (even if it's Boise) is definitely something worth keeping an eye on. Title Odds: +950 | |
| 3 |  |
| The Irish were a bit slow out of the gate against Wisconsin Sunday night before putting the game away in the second half. Some of that was first-game mistakes, and some was probably the fact that Wisconsin is a better team than it was last season. What encouraged me most about the performance was how the run game clicked in the second half. Now we wait a month and a half before the Irish are likely to be tested again. Title Odds: +610 | |
| 4 |  |
| Obviously, we're going to learn a lot more about Texas against Ohio State this week than we did against Texas State. Knowing that, I was still impressed by what I saw from the Longhorns in their season debut. The new running back room looks strong, and the combination of Ryan Wingo and Cam Coleman at WR will make this offense extremely difficult to stop. If Arch Manning continues to improve, this team could end up at No. 1 here quickly. Title Odds: +650 | |
| 5 |  |
| Indiana won comfortably against North Texas, but there were some eyebrow-raising moments in the game. North Texas moved the ball pretty effectively against the Hoosiers' defense and hit a surprising number of explosive plays. Was it the first-game jitters combined with a billion-degree heat, or is it something that could bleed into the rest of the season? Rest assured, we are monitoring the situation. Title Odds: +950 | |
| 6 |  |
| There was very little to learn from the Bulldogs' 63-3 win over Tennessee State. It essentially felt like we were watching a Georgia scrimmage against a local high school team. This week, they play Western Kentucky and seeing as how Nevada just ran all over this Hilltoppers defense Saturday night, I'm not sure we'll learn a whole lot more this week, either. Title Odds: +720 | |
| 7 |  |
| I heard plenty of talk from Miami detractors this offseason about how the Canes will find ways to mess up their ACC title hopes because that's what they always do, but I think those detractors are too quick to ignore the Miami of last year's CFP run. I think those "messing with our food" days are over, and the performance against Stanford seemed to reflect that. Miami's biggest opponent for the first two months of the season may be boredom. I know they have to play Clemson and Florida State, but I have Miami favored by at least two touchdowns against both right now. Title Odds: +900 | |
| 8 |  |
| This is the team that changed my opinion the most this weekend and climbs higher than anyone else in my top 15. I had LSU at No. 12 coming in, but they looked every bit the national title contender against Clemson, not just a playoff contender. The offense tore Clemson apart, and the defense looked just as strong as last season. Title Odds: +1400 | |
| 9 |  |
| There isn't much to take away from Oklahoma's 51-0 win over UTEP. They went out and did what was required, and most importantly, limited John Mateer's exposure to hits. The defense is nasty, and if Mateer stays healthy, the offense is good enough to win a lot of games. This week, the Sooners are on the road to face Michigan in a game that will teach us a lot about both. Title Odds: +2800 | |
| 10 |  |
| I bumped Alabama up slightly following the 48-10 win over East Carolina. Not because I was overly impressed by beating the Pirates, but because Keelon Russell gives this team a slightly higher ceiling. Ty Simpson was a very good quarterback for the Tide last year, but he couldn't help make up for the lack of a rushing attack. Russell can, and will. Title Odds: +2500 | |
| 11 |  |
| I saw a lot of people taking joy in dunking on Texas Tech mega booster Cody Campbell for talking about taking their vengeance and running up the score against Big 12 opponents who ran their mouths this offseason, only to see the Red Raiders look underwhelming against Abilene Christian. In Campbell's defense, I don't think Abilene said anything about Tech and Brendan Sorsby! Seriously, it wasn't the most impressive performance, but the game was decided pretty quickly. Tech just never turned on the afterburners. Title Odds: +2200 | |
| 12 |  |
| My primary concern about Ole Miss coming into the year was its overreliance on Trinidad Chambliss to mask its deficiencies, and that didn't change after its 41-38 win over Louisville. The good news is that Chambliss rules and can cover up a lot of problems. The bad news is that there are a lot of good teams on the schedule (Ole Miss plays four teams I have ranked ahead of it here) for one QB to beat by himself. Title Odds: +2700 | |
