One of the many differences between power ratings and opinion polls is that while both typically take history into account, only one actually needs to. I know it drives me crazy when I see voters in the AP Top 25 or Coaches Poll giving teams too much credit for what they did in prior years and not giving enough credence to what's been going on this season.
When I see a 7-3 team getting votes ahead of a 9-1 team just because nobody expected the 9-1 team to be 9-1, it makes me legitimately angry. In my opinion, it's pure laziness on the voter's part.
But history does matter in power ratings. It's proven over time to be one of the more reliable predictors of future success, but even that's changing a bit in modern college football. Still, it matters, but as the season goes on and new data comes in, it should matter less in any reliable power rating. That is the case here. While I haven't stopped considering it entirely, for the first time this season, the overwhelming majority of each team's rating is based on 2026 performance.
That has not led to much change at the top, as our top eight this week is almost exactly the same as it was last week. Behind those teams, though, things have changed pretty dramatically. We have three new teams in the top 12 this week, including two from the Big 12, and you know what? Texas Tech isn't the highest-ranked of the two!
Title odds via DraftKings
Fornelli Power Ratings
| 1 |  |
| Don't look now, but while the Buckeyes remain No. 1 for yet another week, they're hanging on by a thread. The defensive performance against Illinois wasn't nearly as impressive as the 19 points allowed would suggest. They did a great job keeping Illinois out of the end zone, but it was one of the worst performances the Buckeyes have ever had at home under Ryan Day, according to most of the key metrics I care about in these ratings. Those same concerns we saw when Texas wore them down in the second half earlier this year are still there, and eventually, spamming the Jeremiah Smith button won't be good enough. Last Week: 1 | Title Odds: +475 | |
| 2 |  |
| Georgia's offense had its worst performance of the season against Oklahoma, but I don't hold that against it. Oklahoma has a lot of problems on offense, but the Sooners' defense is legitimately incredible. Very few teams will have their best day against it. That said, if the Bulldogs had done a little better, they'd probably be No. 1 right now! Last Week: 2 | Title Odds: +500 | |
| 3 |  |
| You can dismiss Notre Dame's schedule as much as you'd like, but even if it hasn't been nearly as good as some others, they've still played three Big Ten teams. Those Big Ten teams are spending plenty of money on their rosters in comparison to the rest of the country, and the Irish are smacking them around like an eighth-grade bully welcoming the sixth graders to middle school. Like everyone, I'd like to see what this team looks like against elite competition, but we'll have to bide our time for a little longer. Last Week: 3 | Title Odds: +600 | |
| 4 |  |
| I've seen a lot of concern about Texas recently, which I understand. The Longhorns are undefeated, but they haven't looked unstoppable. It's important to remember, though, that they've played a far more difficult schedule than most teams have. My ratings have it as the second-most difficult in the country so far. It'd be one thing if they were struggling against Arkansas. They're struggling against Ohio State and Tennessee at Neyland Stadium. Cut them some slack. Last Week: 4 | Title Odds: +600 | |
| 5 |  |
| I am not rooting against Miami, but I am hoping a road game at Clemson can provide a little bit of a challenge. Let's face it, there's been very little reason to tune into Miami games this year, which sucks because Darian Mensah and Malachi Toney are balling. I want there to be a reason for people to tune in! This should, in theory, be one of the biggest games on the ACC schedule. Let's hope the game is compelling enough to last longer than a quarter before finding something else. Last Week: 6 | Title Odds: +700 | |
| 6 |  |
| The Hoosiers drop a spot because their performance this season hasn't matched what we saw last year, and as I said up top, last season matters less at this point. Josh Hoover is not a bad QB, but watching him miss a couple of touchdowns on Friday night against Northwestern really drove home the idea that he is not the same player Fernando Mendoza was for this team. Tack on some injury concerns at running back, and a secondary that doesn't look as strong, and the Hoosiers are more vulnerable than they were last year. Not so much that they're falling below sixth, but Oregon closed the gap on them quite a bit this week. Last Week: 5 | Title Odds: +1200 | |
| 7 |  |
| One of the reasons I was so high on Oregon in the preseason wasn't just that it was Oregon; it was also that Dante Moore was coming back. It was that the Ducks, unlike most teams in the country, had legitimate QB depth. We saw it play out on Saturday night. Dante Moore was taken out by a cheap shot, and Dylan Raiola came in, and the Ducks did not miss a beat. Hell, you can argue they looked better with Raiola than they had at any point this year. I don't know if that was because of Raiola or if the hit on Moore woke the Ducks out of the daze they seemed to be in at the start of the season. Either way, Oregon finally looked like Oregon against the Trojans. That should be a concern for everyone else. Last Week: 7 | Title Odds: +2300 | |
| 8 |  |
| There is so much going well with the Crimson Tide right now. Keelon Russell looks incredible, Ryan Coleman-Williams is catching passes instead of dropping them, and the defense looks like a pain in the ass to play against. I wasn't sold on Alabama being a title threat in the preseason, but they're very much in the conversation now. They're also entering the most pivotal stretch of their season in the schedule. We'll know for sure what this team is capable of by Halloween. Last Week: 8 | Title Odds: +2100 | |
| 9 |  |
| No team has benefitted more from the removal of last season than the Florida Gators, who were a better team than their 4-8 record suggested last year, but weren't nearly as good as they were this season. Yes, I have questions about the defense, but the offense is a wagon. And if I've learned anything covering this sport, it's that having a great offense covers up a lot of cracks and keeps you in the conversation. They aren't going anywhere. This has not been a fluke start. Last Week: NR | Title Odds: +1800 | |
| 10 |  |
| Do I agree with Lane Kiffin trying to make his team's injury issues a schedule thing? No. I believe football injuries happen in football, not because you have to play nine SEC games, but because, in any football game, strong individuals are hammering into one another over 100 times per game. That said, given the injuries LSU is dealing with, I understand why Lane is concerned! So am I. Sam Leavitt's injury history has been a factor in my ratings of this team all season, and he's perpetually banged up. As I wrote when discussing Oregon, QB depth isn't something most teams have. I do like the flashes of what we've seen from Landen Clark, though. Last Week: 10 | Title Odds: +1750 | |
| 11 |  |
| Now here's a team I was dead wrong about coming into the season. I was convinced that with Kyle Whittingham leaving and taking plenty of Utah's top players and a chunk of its coaching staff with him to Michigan, we'd see the Utes take a step backward. Not a giant one, but one that would put them more in the bucket of Big 12 teams generally considered the second tier. Nope. Nuh uh. Morgan Scalley's team isn't just winning games; it's refusing to take prisoners, and I have now moved them to the top of the Big 12 pile. They have to play both Houston and BYU, but those games are in Salt Lake City. That's part of the reason why they're my new Big 12 favorite. Last Week: NR | Title Odds: +8400 | |
| 12 |  |
| But not by much! I can already see the angry BYU messages (you guys aren't far behind) for having both Utah and Tech ahead of them, but while the Red Raiders haven't been nearly as good as they were last year, they're still good. That said, the reality of the situation right now is that my teams ranked between 11 and 18 are separated by little more than a field goal. We're likely to see a lot of churn in this area for the rest of the season. Last Week: NR | Title Odds: +5200 | |
Dropped out: Ole Miss, USC, Penn State
