One of the hallmarks of sports fandom these days is the compulsion to overreact to everything. The Florida Gators started the season 4-0. The Gators beat Auburn and then blew out an Ole Miss team coming off a win over LSU. The Gators were suddenly the hottest team in the country. A serious playoff contender.
Then they went on the road and lost to Missouri 45-17, and they actually sucked the entire time. They were so overrated. Anybody who moved them into the top 10 in their opinion polls or power ratings is a clown and should feel stupid.
When you do these power ratings, it's important to avoid overreacting to any single result. Crazy things happen in sports all the time, and typically, if the game spread is 5.5 points but the final score shows a 28-point deficit, it's an outlier result. It doesn't mean it isn't real, or that it was a fluke. It just means that, among the possible range of outcomes, the one we saw wasn't nearly as likely as many others.
It doesn't mean Florida sucks. While the Gators drop a few spots in the ratings this week, their defense was already a concern last week, even though I had them at No. 9. I didn't downgrade it much this week. What was downgraded was the offense, because Missouri took away the run game, and Florida didn't have much of a counter. That's useful information.
Frankly, the real takeaway I had from the game was that I hadn't given Missouri nearly enough credit. I liked the offense already, but I was far too low on their defense. What the Tigers did in that game may have produced an outlier result, but it was no fluke. As a result, they don't crack the top 12 this week, but they're hovering. And honestly, given the way things have gone for teams ranked 11th and 12th in these ratings this season, the Tigers should probably thank me for not putting them there yet. I had Penn State at No. 12 two weeks ago, and look what's happened there.
Now, if you want to talk about a team that may have sucked the entire time, Penn State's the team we should be talking about! That was a big swing-and-miss on my part, but hopefully it's been corrected going forward.
Title odds via DraftKings.
| 1 |  |
| It's kind of crazy to think of Ohio State as a one-man team, but Jeremiah Smith is so damn good that if he actually were the only guy who touched the ball on every snap, the Buckeyes would probably still be a playoff threat. He's doing things this season that are laughably absurd. He has 823 yards receiving already, which would rank 117th nationally if he were a team. Seriously, Smith has more yards receiving than UCLA and BYU , as well as 20 other G6 teams. Last Week: 1 | Title Odds: +430 | |
| 2 |  |
| We're finally going to see Georgia tested this week. You may have noticed the Bulldogs opened as favorites against Alabama in Tuscaloosa, but the line quickly moved to make Alabama the favorite. That makes sense by my numbers. I've no doubt the Bulldogs are good, but they haven't seen a dangerous QB yet this season. We'll learn a whole lot more about this squad on Saturday night. Last Week: 2 | Title Odds: +500 | |
| 3 |  |
| If you only look at final scores, you probably assume Notre Dame had a bad game on Saturday. They only beat North Carolina by 11, but that doesn't tell the story. It was a bad weather game, which made things trickier, but the biggest takeaway should be that the Irish may have found their rushing attack. Freshman Jonaz Walton went for 120 yards on 5.2 per carry. This is a week after he averaged nearly 9 against Purdue . The schedule remains easy, but it's allowing the Irish team to figure itself out. Last Week: 3 | Title Odds: +620 | |
| 4 |  |
| The Longhorns took last week off to give themselves some extra time to prepare for the hated Oklahoma Sooners . The total for the game is currently listed at 39, which may be the strongest reflection of how life has changed for both programs since joining the SEC. While in the Big 12, we'd often see both teams score at least 40 points when playing each other. Now we aren't sure if they'll crack 40 points combined. Last Week: 4 | Title Odds: +660 | |
| 5 |  |
| The Tide makes the biggest jump in our top 12 this week, and it's all because of the quarterback. I've officially seen enough from Keelon Russell to believe he's just a little bit different than most, which improves his rating and, in turn, Alabama's overall offensive rating. If this defense can figure out how to force more field goals when teams reach the red zone, we'll be staring at a potential juggernaut. Last Week: 8 | Title Odds: +1150 | |
| 6 |  |
| I would characterize the Canes falling a spot as more of an "Alabama passed them" situation than a downgrade, but I did downgrade them slightly. Not for anything in their performance over the decaying husk of a once-proud Clemson program, but because this team keeps suffering injuries. They're still miles better than everybody left on the schedule not named Notre Dame, so they should survive them, but they need to get healthy. Last Week: 5 | Title Odds: +700 | |
| 7 |  |
| That close call with Northwestern in Week 4 looks a lot different after seeing what Northwestern did to Penn State on Friday, doesn't it? The Hoosiers looked far more like their 2025 selves against Rutgers , but Rutgers has a habit of doing that. Still, overall, I'm more encouraged by what I've seen from the front seven on defense as the year has progressed. I do have some questions about the secondary, though, and they still have Ohio State and USC on the schedule. Last Week: 6 | Title Odds: +1050 | |
| 8 |  |
| The Ducks had the week off, and I hope they spent it wisely. The UCLA team that's coming to town this weekend appears to be a certified PITA (pain in the…). The Bruins could pose serious problems for the Ducks, and just because Oregon beat USC last time out doesn't mean everything is fixed. And I haven't even mentioned the QB situation. Will it be Dante Moore or Dylan Raiola ? Last Week: 7 | Title Odds: +2100 | |
| 9 |  |
| The Tigers got some good cardio work in against McNeese on Saturday. There was nothing from the game worth paying attention to as far as these ratings are concerned. Things could get tricky this week on the road against a Kentucky team that's beaten both Texas A&M and South Carolina . Let's not forget the Tigers have left Baton Rouge only once this season, and it was their sole loss (Ole Miss). Last Week: 10 | Title Odds: +1650 | |
| 10 |  |
| The Utes had the week off and get Kansas at home this week. I do not expect the Jayhawks to provide much of a serious challenge. Not in Salt Lake City, anyway. From what we've seen with this team and with what we've seen from Kyle Whittingham's Michigan Wolverines , you have to think everyone involved with the program feels they made the right choice. Last Week: 11 | Title Odds: +6400 | |
| 11 |  |
| As I went over already, Florida was downgraded this week, but not drastically. It's still one of the better teams in the country, and its offense makes it dangerous against anybody. The defense will continue to be the unit that decides how good the Gators can be, as will Aaron Philo . Last Week: 9 | Title Odds: +3200 | |
| 12 |  |
| It's hard to figure this team out at the moment. They haven't looked incredible, but their lone loss was a three-point loss at home to Texas , and it's not as though the Vols looked outclassed in the game. Still, the QB questions and injuries on the offensive line have me wondering if I'm being too kind. For now, their rating puts them at 12, but the gap between them and 13 (and 14, and 15, and 16, etc.) is razor-thin right now. Last Week: NR | Title Odds: +7600 | |
Dropped out: Texas Tech
