College Football Playoff predictions: ACC still on track for multiple bids

Meanwhile, the Big 12 might not be as lucky as the ACC when it comes to earning multiple CFP bids

By Tom Fornelli

Oct 19, 2025 at 9:08 am ET • 6 min read

Virginia players react after a comeback win over Washington State in Week 8

Imagn Images

Considering both Clemson and Florida State have spent the entirety of the 2025 season tripping over themselves and finding new lows, you would think Miami losing at home Friday night to Louisville as a double-digit favorite would be a serious blow to the ACC's chances of getting two teams into the College Football Playoff field. In reality, though, I don't know that the loss does as much damage to the league as a whole as it does to Miami, which now has less margin for error but remains buoyed by impressive nonconference wins against Notre Dame and a South Florida team that could be in the playoff itself.

The reason the ACC might not have to worry is mostly luck-based on how results have gone and how the schedules shook out.

Following Week 8's action, there are four teams in the ACC with one loss or fewer: Georgia Tech, Virginia, Louisville and Miami. Both Georgia Tech and Virginia are unbeaten in the ACC (along with 5-2 SMU) while Louisville and Miami have one loss apiece. But, here's the thing: While Louisville just beat Miami, none of these four teams will play another game against each other before a potential matchup in the ACC Championship Game.

Both Miami and Louisville have to play at SMU, which also keeps the Mustangs in the hunt, but with two losses already, the Mustangs likely have to win the ACC to have a shot. The other four teams could still get in as an at-large.

I mentioned Georgia Tech and Virginia are undefeated in league play, and neither plays one another. So the possibility remains both teams could get to Charlotte with 8-0 records in the ACC and only one loss on their resume (in this scenario, Georgia Tech's lone loss comes to Georgia, and, well, Georgia Tech nearly beat Georgia last season, so we shouldn't assume anything there). That would be a dream scenario for the ACC because the loser of the ACC Championship Game is almost certainly earning an at-large bid.

But what if Miami wins out, too? Then the Canes are 11-1 but miss out on the ACC Championship Game due to the Louisville loss with wins over Notre Dame and South Florida. They're damn near a lock for an at-large with that resume.

And Louisville could still win out in this scenario, too! In a sense, Miami's loss on Friday night may not have been a blow to the ACC but a blessing in disguise, as it opens up the possibility of the league getting four teams in.

It's not a likely scenario, but it exists, and the idea of getting two teams in is much stronger than it felt a few weeks ago.

I can already hear the angry Big 12 comments

"But, Tom, you've been saying all year the Big 12 is a one-bid league, but it also has four one-loss teams, as well as Arizona State with only one Big 12 loss and a win over Texas Tech. So, the Big 12 is a one-bid league, but Miami losing is good for the ACC!?"

Yep. Listen, as I said, it's not likely, and it may not make sense, but college football is never a sport that's been about sense. It's just dumb luck. The difference between the Big 12's situation and the ACC's is that those teams at the top of the Big 12 standings have a lot of games left against one another.

BYU is 7-0 but has games left against Texas Tech and Cincinnati, two of the Big 12's one-loss teams. Arizona State will play Houston. All four teams have tough contests against teams like Iowa State and Utah to manage as well. By the time the dust settles, it's hard to imagine more than one Big 12 team emerging from the rubble with a resume strong enough to earn an at-large without getting help from other leagues.

Particularly with how things are lining up in the ACC. It is possible for the Big 12 to get two teams in -- if Texas Tech wins out, and BYU's loss to Tech is the only one it suffers, it is the most feasible -- but it's far more likely the teams at the top of the standings will cannibalize one another because they have to play one another.

Illinois is the Big Ten's best hope for a fourth bid

The Big Ten will have the top two teams in the country when the new polls are released Monday. Oregon recovered from its loss to Indiana by putting up an astounding 750 yards of total offense in a 56-10 win over Rutgers. These are good things for the league.

However, the rest of the weekend didn't go well for the Big Ten. USC lost to Notre Dame, and Nebraska lost to Minnesota on Friday night. That leaves a logjam of 3-1 teams in conference play, but while I'm happy for Northwestern, Iowa, Minnesota and UCLA (look at the Bruins!), none strike me as a playoff team.

USC could win out and get in, but the Trojans are on the road for Nebraska and Oregon and also must play Northwestern, Iowa and UCLA (no ACC schedule breaks here). A third loss seems likely.

That leaves Michigan and Illinois, both of whom already have two losses. Michigan beat Washington 24-7 Saturday, but while the Wolverines' next four games all look winnable, they still must finish the year with Ohio State. Illinois has already gotten Ohio State out of the way, and its other loss is to Indiana.

We can't ignore the Indiana loss being by 53 points, but when your two losses are to the teams ranked No. 1 and No. 2 in the polls, it looks good on a resume. The Illini were on a bye this week and return next week with a road trip to Washington. That game won't be easy, and the Huskies will be favored, but if the Illini can get through with a win, their final games are against Rutgers, Maryland, Wisconsin and Northwestern. Those four are a combined 4-12 in Big Ten play, and Northwestern is responsible for three of those wins.

I don't think it's a likely outcome for either, but a 10-2 Illinois is slightly more realistic than a 10-2 Michigan right now.

Week 8 nearly turned the G6 race on its head

There were a few startling results outside the Power Four this weekend. Memphis lost 34-31 on the road against a UAB team that fired its coach, Trent Dilfer, last week. UNLV suffered its first loss of the season, getting spanked 56-31 at Boise State. Now the Rebels are behind Boise, San Diego State and Hawaii in the Mountain West standings.

Tulane was nearly a victim as well, as it trailed Army 17-10 late in the fourth quarter before scoring two touchdowns in the final two minutes of the game to escape with the win. South Florida was the only Group of Six favorite that didn't have a difficult time this weekend, as it cruised to a 48-13 win over FAU.

Now, both the American and Mountain West look wide open, but it still feels like the Americans' bid to lose. The Navy is 6-0 on the year, while USF and Tulane remain undefeated in conference play. The Mountain West has no undefeated teams and only two teams with one loss (San Diego State and the UNLV squad that just got 56 put on it). Barring mayhem of epic proportions in the American, it's hard to see the Mountain West champion surpassing the American's in the rankings.