Tom Fornelli's CFP Vibe Check, Week 1: Big Ten shows cracks, while LSU sends a loud message

The industry consensus heading into the 2026 season was that there were seven teams in contention to win the national title. The best reflection of this belief was in the preseason AP Top 25.

Not only did five different teams (Ohio State, Oregon, Indiana, Notre Dame and Miami) receive first-place votes, but when all the votes were tallied, No. 1 Ohio State was separated from No. 7 Miami by only 293 points.

The gap between No. 7 Miami and No. 8 Texas A&M was 248 points.

It turns out the consensus was wrong. There aren't seven national title contenders this season. There are eight.

Welcome to the party, LSU. Their 51-10 win over Clemson reflected two programs heading in different directions. One continued its freefall from the world of the sport's elite, while the other re-established itself as a genuine threat.

Lost in all the ridiculousness surrounding LSU this offseason, and its quest to turn the sport on its head just to see if it can, was the fact that Kiffin put together a very good roster for his first campaign on the Bayou. A team so good that you can't help but wonder what the damn point of going after NFL dropouts was in the first place.

The only error on the night came on the second play from scrimmage when Sam Leavitt's pass to Malik Elzy slipped through Elzy's arms and into the arms of a Clemson defender. But even that threat was quickly extinguished by an LSU defense that made it painfully clear from the jump that Clemson wasn't going to have much fun on offense.

From that point on, it was an absolute decimation. Sam Leavitt was spectacular in his debut, as was just about everybody else who took a snap. Honestly, LSU made Clemson look like the same kind of FCS/G6 cannon fodder so many other title contenders were facing in Week 1. It was the kind of performance that screamed, "Hey, this team can win it all."

And they can. Adjust your preseason expectations accordingly.

A shaky start for the Big Ten

Speaking of things that got lost in the shuffle of offseason narratives, we were all so busy proclaiming the Big Ten the best conference in the country after winning its third straight national title that we kind of forgot the league only got three teams into the College Football Playoff field last season.

I'm kind of wondering if we won't see a repeat in 2026. OK, so I was already wondering that before the season began, but what I've seen from the league so far hasn't done much to change my mind.

No. 1 Ohio State crushed Ball State, but the Buckeyes were the only Big Ten playoff team from last season that looked dominant. Yes, No. 6 Indiana finished with a 52-16 win over North Texas, but that was after scoring two touchdowns in the final six minutes of action. The good news for the Hoosiers is that Josh Hoover looked great, even if he wasn't asked to drop back and throw a whole lot. The less encouraging news was the defense.

North Texas actually outgained the Hoosiers 367 yards to 365 in the game. Furthermore, the Hoosiers' defense forced only one three-and-out. Eight of the Mean Green's 10 possessions lasted at least six plays, and they moved the ball relatively effectively. Indiana's defense looked out of sorts at times, which shouldn't be that big of a surprise. The Hoosiers lost a lot of experience from the unit after last season, not just in overall snaps, but in snaps played together.

The good news is that Indiana looked shaky in its first game last season, and things turned out fine. Oh, and it looked a lot better than Oregon.

If you didn't watch Oregon's 34-27 win over Boise State and only looked at the box score, you'd have no idea how the hell Boise kept the game so close. The answer was that the Ducks looked sloppy, and while they were able to use their talent advantage to hit big plays and paper over some of the bad parts, it was not a pretty performance overall.

Still, like Indiana, I'm not remotely concerned about Oregon in the long run. The three Big Ten teams we all expect to be atop the league are still going to finish there. After that? I don't know!

Rutgers lost to UMass, while Nebraska, Northwestern, and Michigan State all struggled with lesser competition. Obviously, none of those teams are seen as CFP contenders, but when it comes to the Big Ten's hopes of getting four teams (or more) in the field, strength of schedule will matter, and none of those four looked like teams that will help the Big Ten in that department.

Oh, and perhaps you heard about Michigan's 13-12 win over Western Michigan? It was quite controversial! The Wolverines needed a Hail Mary on the final (or second final) play of the game to escape an embarrassing loss.

USC and Penn State were dominant, but their performances aren't my concern. USC still has to play Oregon, Washington, Penn State, Ohio State and Indiana. Theoretically, for USC to make the field, it might have to spoil somebody else's bid along the way. As for Penn State, their big games are USC, Michigan and Washington. The Nittany Lions need the bottom half of the league to be better than it has looked so far to have a shot at an at-large bid.

The ACC already looks like Miami or bust

On the one hand, you have to give the ACC credit. It has already played six nonconference games against other Power Four leagues, while the SEC, Big 12 and Big Ten have combined for nine. But playing the games only earns you so much respect. You have to win them, and the ACC is not doing that.

The 2026 season started last week with North Carolina beating TCU. That is the ACC's only win against a P4 league this year. They're winless on American soil.

Georgia Tech lost to Colorado. Boston College lost to Cincinnati. Cal lost to UCLA. Louisville went toe-to-toe with Ole Miss Sunday night, but fell just short. And, of course, Clemson was disemboweled by LSU.

The Clemson and Louisville losses hurt the most. No disrespect to the others, but nobody looks at them as playoff contenders. Meanwhile, Clemson and Louisville had spotlight games against the SEC in primetime and came up short in both.

The Louisville loss might hurt more than Clemson's. While it's hard to be optimistic about their chances, at least Clemson has games left against Miami. Louisville doesn't have another marquee matchup on its regular-season schedule. There's a home game against SMU later this month and one against Florida State in October, but that's it. Now, that should help Louisville's chances in the ACC (and, honestly, given how they looked against Ole Miss, you have to like their chances in the ACC right now), but unless they win the ACC title, it's going to be hard for them to get in as an at-large unless they don't lose another regular-season game.

It felt like the ACC's hopes of getting an at-large were already slim before the season began, and a 1-5 start against other P4 leagues has them on life support.

The at-large standings

A look at how the Power Four conferences and Notre Dame have fared against each other this season

One second altered the G6 race

People aren't likely to stop talking about the end of Michigan's win over Western Michigan any time soon. It's a result that will go down in college football lore as one of the most controversial endings to any game in history. Whether you think the refs got the call correct or that the decision to add another second was a blatant attempt to give Michigan another chance, it's also a decision that could have an enormous impact on this year's College Football Playoff race.

Western Michigan won the MAC last season, but was never really in the discussion for a playoff bid, even though the G6 got two teams in. However, this season the Broncos had a good portion of last year's team returning, and even kept players from leaving via the portal. Something that has become increasingly difficult for any G6 program to do. A win over Michigan on Saturday would've been the kind of feather in the cap any G6 team needs to catch the attention of the playoff committee.

And it wouldn't have been Western's last chance to do so. The Broncos host Boise State on Sept. 26. What if they win that game? What if the Broncos had wins over Michigan and Boise State, and then won the MAC again? There's no guarantee they'd get that playoff spot, but there's a genuine argument that there might not be another G6 team with such an impressive resume.

Just a little more salt in the wound for Western.

Week 2 vibe shifters

A look ahead to the five games on this week's slate most likely to impact the playoff race

• Ohio State at Texas
• Oklahoma at Michigan
• Memphis at Boise State
• Tennessee at Georgia Tech
• Arkansas at Utah 

This week's CFP projection

1. Notre Dame
2. Georgia
3. Ohio State
4. Miami
5. LSU
6. Indiana
7. Texas
8. Texas Tech
9. Oregon
10. Oklahoma
11. BYU
12. Memphis