CFP Traffic Report: Oklahoma closes in on bid, ACC leaders scramble in Week 14

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With rivalry week arriving and the calendar about to flip to December, the road to the College Football Playoff is more crowded than ever. The teams currently in position for a first-round bye -- Ohio State, Indiana, Texas A&M and Georgia -- enter the final weekend with a firm grip on their postseason fate, but even they aren't immune to the chaos rivalry week reliably delivers. At this stage, they're not just chasing a CFP berth; they're battling for byes, conference title game spots and one last statement for the committee.

Behind them, the next wave of contenders is fighting through traffic. Notre Dame's demolition of Syracuse and Oklahoma's suffocating defensive performance have both pushed those programs to the verge of locking down playoff spots. Meanwhile, teams like Ole Miss, Oregon and Texas Tech enter the weekend in a clear win-and-in position, each favored to reinforce its résumé.

A lot of attention will be on the ACC this final week of the regular season as what once looked like a straightforward route to the conference championship has dissolved into a labyrinth. Six teams still hold real -- if fragile -- paths to the title game, and every result carries ripple effects across the league.

With the playoff bracket beginning to take shape, who's cruising and who's burning fuel just to stay alive? This Week 14 edition of the College Football Playoff Traffic Report once again breaks down every Power Four team, from smooth-sailing favorites to long-shot hopefuls.

🚀 On cruise control
🟢 In the driver's seat
🟡 Bumper-to-bumper
🔴 Sitting on the shoulder
⛔ Out of the race

Note: Rankings using are Week 13 CFP Rankings

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Brad Crawford

🚀 On cruise control

Look elite, have a clear path and have margin for error

No. 1 Ohio State (11-0, 8-0): Big-picture goals include a national championship, but first the Buckeyes are focused on ending their losing streak to Michigan -- they haven't beaten the Wolverines since 2019. A win would also clinch a spot in the Big Ten Championship Game for the first time since 2020. Regardless of the outcome in Ann Arbor, Ohio State is all but assured a CFP bid.

No. 2 Indiana (11-0, 8-0): The Hoosiers are locked into the Big Ten Championship Game and are firmly positioned for a return trip to the CFP ahead of the regular-season finale at rival Purdue, which last won a Big Ten game on Nov. 25, 2023 -- against Indiana. It's an opportunity to stretch out the legs after a bye week and fine-tune things while the Hoosiers await their opponent for Indianapolis.

No. 3 Texas A&M (11-0, 7-0): The Aggies are 11-0 for the first time since 1992 and the last unbeaten team in the SEC. They are already in strong position for the CFP, but a loss at rival Texas would jeopardize their spot in the SEC Championship Game. Texas A&M would need losses by Alabama and Ole Miss.

No. 4 Georgia (10-1, 7-1): A loss to Georgia Tech won't knock the Bulldogs out of the CFP picture. But their path to a first-round bye likely disappears if they don't make the SEC title game. With Georgia already completing its conference slate, there are two scenarios that secure a trip to Atlanta: either Alabama loses to Auburn or Texas A&M falls to Texas. Both remain realistic possibilities.

No. 7 Oregon (10-1, 7-1): Saturday's win over USC was a must-win for the Ducks, adding another ranked victory to their résumé. Oregon still likely needs a win at rival Washington (live on CBS and streaming on Paramount+ Premium) to solidify its CFP case, and there's still a path to the Big Ten title game if Michigan pulls off an upset against Ohio State.

No. 5 Texas Tech (10-1, 7-1): The Red Raiders could be in the CFP even if they lose at West Virginia in an early kick. But a loss would put Texas Tech out of the Big 12 title game if Arizona State, BYU and Utah all win -- and it would certainly put a damper on their postseason positioning.

No. 6 Ole Miss (10-1, 6-1): Well, this could get messy if Lane Kiffin bolts after the Egg Bowl. Would the committee trust a coach-less Rebels squad? Just ask 2023 Florida State how that went with an injured starting quarterback. If Kiffin stays put, Ole Miss keeps full control of its CFP hopes with a win.

🟢 In the driver's seat

Control their path, but still vulnerable -- one or two unexpected hiccups could matter

No. 9 Notre Dame (9-2): What a statement from the Fighting Irish. If style points count, dismantling Syracuse by 63 -- the second-largest margin of victory by any Power Four team this season -- is about as loud as it gets. Now only a visit to Stanford separates Notre Dame from an at-large CFP bid.

No. 8 Oklahoma (9-2, 5-2): Doesn't matter how inconsistent the Sooners' offense may look -- their defense is elite and special teams comes up big too. Oklahoma must avoid a major letdown against zombie LSU this week, but going 3‑1 in a four-game stretch against top‑25 teams likely cements its status as a CFP participant.

No. 10 Alabama (9-2, 6-1): A date with Auburn in Jordan-Hare Stadium is the final hurdle for the Crimson Tide to lock in their spot in the SEC Championship Game and the CFP. A loss would put them in a precarious spot, especially with the committee pegging Alabama as the last at-large team in last week's rankings.

No. 11 BYU (10-1, 7-1): The Cougars control more of their path than it may seem. If BYU wins the Big 12 title game -- likely a rematch with Texas Tech -- it's in the CFP. But even a close, competitive loss, paired with chaos elsewhere, could still keep the door cracked for an at-large bid. But the safest route is the obvious one: just win.

No. 19 Virginia (9-2, 6-1): It's been an impressive breakthrough for Tony Elliott and the Cavaliers. But that job's not finished yet with a spot in the ACC title game on the line when rival Virginia Tech comes to Charlottesville.

SMU (8-3, 6-1): The Mustangs also control their own destiny in the ACC race. Beat California on the road, and they'll head back to Charlotte for a win-and-in shot at the CFP. And considering SMU was unranked prior to this past weekend, that kind of turnaround would be one of the season's wildest pivots.

🟡 Bumper-to-bumper

Alive, but their path is crowded, narrow or highly dependent on others

No. 14 Vanderbilt (9-2, 5-2): Diego Pavia's Heisman Trophy campaign would get a significant boost if Vanderbilt can somehow sneak into the CFP bracket. The Commodores can strengthen their résumé with a win at Tennessee in Knoxville, but even then, they'll still need several teams ahead of them to slip.

No. 13 Miami (9-2, 5-2): An at-large bid remains the most likely route to the CFP for Miami, but the road once seemingly closed through the ACC title game remains open. There's a handful of scenarios still in play, but the Hurricanes must beat Pittsburgh for any of it to matter. They're also rooting for at least two of these three to lose: Duke, SMU and Virginia.

No. 12 Utah (9-2, 6-2): The Utes need a lot to break their way despite sitting just a few spots outside at-large range in last week's rankings. To reach the Big 12 title game and keep a sliver of CFP hope alive, Utah must beat Kansas, see Texas Tech lose, and also get wins from Arizona State and BYU -- yes, rooting for its rival.

No. 18 Michigan (9-2, 7-1): The Wolverines can be a thorn in the side of Ohio State once again if they extend their rivalry streak to five straight on Saturday. But even a win won't be enough for a trip to the Big Ten title game -- Michigan also needs Oregon to lose.

Pittsburgh (8-3, 6-1): Like SMU, the Panthers could surge from unranked to the edge of the CFP conversation in just a couple of weeks. If they beat Miami and either SMU or Virginia loses, Pittsburgh is headed back to the ACC title game for the first time since 2021 under Pat Narduzzi's watch.