CFP Traffic Report: Alabama's path narrows, at-large race heats up in Week 13

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Lanes to the College Football Playoff are closing fast, and the number of Power Four contenders with a realistic path to the 12-team bracket is thinning out. With only two weeks remaining in the regular season, opportunities to secure a spot are slipping away. For a handful of programs that have essentially locked up their résumés -- like Georgia, Indiana, Ohio State, Ole Miss, Texas A&M and Texas Tech -- it's all about earning the first-round bye.

For the next tier of teams, the margin for error is razor-thin. A huge showdown between USC and Oregon this Saturday -- live on CBS and streaming on Paramount+ -- could make or break CFP hopes for both programs. Meanwhile, Oklahoma beating Alabama this past weekend has intensified the scramble for the SEC's likely fourth spot.

In the ACC, the race remains chaotic, with six teams still mathematically alive for a spot in the conference title game, though Georgia Tech and Virginia control their own fate with one league game remaining. But don't block out Miami, Pittsburgh or SMU just yet.

Bowl projections: Georgia moves into first-round bye in College Football Playoff, Oklahoma enters bracket

Brad Crawford

With the playoff field starting to take shape, who's driving toward the CFP and who's stuck in traffic? This Week 13 edition of the College Football Playoff Traffic Report once again breaks down every Power Four team, from those cruising toward a berth to those teetering on the edge of elimination.

🚀 On cruise control
🟢 In the driver's seat
🟡 Bumper-to-bumper
🔴 Sitting on the shoulder
⛔ Out of the race

Note: Rankings mentioned are based on Week 12 CFP Rankings.

🚀 On cruise control

Look elite, have a clear path and have margin for error

No. 2 Indiana (11-0): The Hoosiers still haven't clinched a spot in the Big Ten title game, with three one-loss conference teams lurking if Indiana was to slip at Purdue in the finale. But Curt Cignetti and the Hoosiers are all but locked into a return to the CFP. All about seeding at this point.

No. 1 Ohio State (10-0): There's a disaster Big Ten title game scenario lurking for the Buckeyes too if they are unable to snap that four-game losing streak to rival Michigan. For now the reigning national champions are locked into that top seed.

No. 3 Texas A&M (10-0): If there's any sign this season is truly different for the Aggies, erasing a 30-3 halftime deficit is it. What looked like a potential collapse flipped into Texas A&M clinching its first 10-win season since 2012. At this point, the Aggies have essentially locked up a CFP spot -- but beating Texas in the finale would cement their résumé and send them to the SEC title game for the first time.

No. 5 Georgia (9-1): The Bulldogs have done all they can in the SEC race and are starting to resemble the overwhelming groups that powered their back-to-back national titles. At this point, Georgia is effectively locked into the playoff; even a slip against Georgia Tech wouldn't knock them out. The Bulldogs are simply fighting for seeding now -- and trying to peak at the perfect time.

No. 7 Ole Miss (10-1): Lane Kiffin has pushed the noise aside and steered the Rebels to the brink of the program's first CFP appearance. A berth in the SEC title game is still technically alive, but Ole Miss needs help -- namely Texas beating Texas A&M and Auburn shocking Alabama -- to make the path even possible. A home playoff game in Oxford? Kiffin would sign for that tomorrow.

No. 6 Texas Tech (10-1): Jacob Rodriguez is an absolute force on a Red Raiders defense that could cause some trouble in the postseason. Texas Tech gets a bye before traveling to West Virginia, where a win would clinch the program's first-ever Big 12 title game appearance and all but lock in a CFP berth regardless of what happens in Arlington. The massive investment in this roster is paying off in real time.

🟢 In the driver's seat

Control their path, but still vulnerable -- one or two unexpected hiccups could matter

No. 8 Oregon (9-1): The Ducks have won four straight since their October loss to Indiana and now face arguably their toughest remaining test when USC visits Autzen -- live on CBS and streaming on Paramount+. A win puts Oregon one step closer to a CFP bid. A loss would erase their margin and drag them back into the crowd of two-loss hopefuls. This is the résumé game the Ducks can't afford to miss.

No. 9 Notre Dame (8-2): The Fighting Irish faced their last real test of the regular season at Pittsburgh, coming away with a résumé-boosting win. After an early 0-2 start that left little margin for error, Notre Dame now heads into its final two games against Syracuse and Stanford with momentum and a path to a strong finish.

No. 4 Alabama (8-2): How far the committee drops the Crimson Tide in the rankings will shape the CFP stakes, but the real drama lies in their SEC title-game path. Alabama owns four top-25 wins, including Georgia, yet still needs to escape a suddenly tricky Iron Bowl on The Plains and get some help to keep Atlanta in play.

No. 11 Oklahoma (8-2): Consecutive ranked wins on the road in the SEC are the kind of boost the Sooners desperately needed to steady their playoff push. Now they close out with a manageable stretch in Norman -- Missouri with potentially a true freshman quarterback and an LSU outfit just trying to reach the finish line.

No. 12 BYU (9-1): It could be difficult for the Big 12 to secure two bids -- even if the league might deserve it. BYU has looked steady all season outside of getting thumped at Texas Tech. The Cougars have their sights set on a rematch in the conference title game, but they must win at Cincinnati and then against UCF to avoid getting dragged into messy, multi-team tiebreakers.

No. 16 Georgia Tech (9-1): Brent Key's Yellow Jackets control their own path to the ACC title game, but the proving ground arrives now. Georgia Tech must take care of business against Pittsburgh -- one of four one-loss ACC contenders -- to stay in the driver's seat before a rivalry showdown with Georgia that doubles as a potential résumé rocket booster.

🟡 Bumper-to-bumper

Alive, but their path is crowded, narrow or highly dependent on others

No. 19 Virginia (9-2): The Cavaliers get a timely bye while the rest of the ACC sorts itself out, and their route is refreshingly simple: beat Virginia Tech in the regular-season finale and they're in the ACC title game. But with so many teams stacked around them, a slip could knock them out of the race in a hurry.

No. 13 Utah (8-2): Don't overlook the Utes in the Big 12. Their path to both the conference title game and the CFP is a bit tangled, but the committee's respect for Utah keeps them hovering just outside that final at-large tier. Chaos elsewhere -- or a stall-out from rival BYU -- could open a clear lane back into the race.

No. 15 Miami (8-2): Don't be fooled by the bracket based on last week's committee rankings. Miami may have been the ACC's highest-ranked team, but the Hurricanes still need to reach -- and likely win -- the conference title game to keep a CFP breakthrough on the table. And that path to Charlotte is complicated.

No. 14 Vanderbilt (8-2): Diego Pavia and the Commodores are still alive, but Oklahoma beating Alabama complicated their path. To make a case as a two-loss SEC contender, Vanderbilt must win out against Kentucky and at Tennessee -- otherwise, their playoff hopes are over.

No. 10 Texas (7-3): The Longhorns likely missed their shot at the CFP with an offense that continues to sputter, most recently in a loss at Georgia. Unless Texas can make a statement these final two weeks by knocking off unbeaten Texas A&M and finishing strong at home, their CFP hopes are essentially over.

No. 17 USC (8-2): If the win over Iowa in the pouring rain proved anything, it's that the Trojans have adapted to the Big Ten grind. They still have some ground to make up after sitting outside the top 15 of last week's CFP Rankings, but a statement victory at Oregon this Saturday -- live on CBS and streaming on Paramount+ -- would certainly put USC back in the conversation.

SMU (7-3): Are the Mustangs going to back-door their way into the CFP again? They'll need wins over Louisville and California -- plus a little help from Georgia Tech or Virginia faltering -- to keep their hopes alive. With the ACC this chaotic, it's certainly possible.

No. 18 Michigan (8-2): The Wolverines haven't exactly wowed the eye test, grinding out one-possession wins over Purdue and Northwestern in the last two games. Maybe there's a bit of a look-ahead to Ohio State? If Michigan can pull off another shocker and finish 10-2, they'll at least cement a strong résumé. A path to the Big Ten title game is extremely narrow, requiring losses from Oregon and USC with a weak conference opponent win percentage.