COLLEGE FOOTBALL: NOV 08 Cal at Louisville
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One of the foundational rules of ACC football is that, any time the ACC has a chance to hurt itself, the ACC will do everything in its power to hurt itself. Sometimes that's by scheduling nonconference road games against competition from outside the Power Four college football conferences. Other times it's by having two of its premier programs have horrible seasons at the same time.

Then there's the old-fashioned method of having its best teams lose games they aren't supposed to.

The ACC has followed these rules to the letter of the law all season, and Week 11 was no exception. Duke went on the road and lost to UConn, becoming the second ACC team to lose on the road to UConn this season. Virginia and Louisville, who entered the weekend atop the ACC standings, decided now would be a great week to lose games as home favorites against teams that had losing records in conference play. Virginia's 16-9 home loss to Wake Forest was its second loss to an ACC team this year, but the first to count in the conference standings. It also opened the door to Louisville, which only had to beat Cal to give itself a great chance of reaching the ACC Championship. So, of course, Louisville immediately lost in overtime to Cal.

While hilarious to the objective viewer, this ACC incompetence, cleverly disguised as chaos, has led to people asking a question that is based more in fantasy than reality.

Could the ACC champion be left out of the College Football Playoff?

Yes, in theory, because it's important to remember that the only stipulation for automatic bids into the CFP is that it's the five highest-ranked conference champions. It's not the Power Four champions and the highest-ranked G6 champ. So, in theory, an ACC champion could be ranked below two champions from Group of Six leagues and be left out.

But that won't happen this season.

The fun hypothetical right now is what happens if Duke, which fell to 5-4 Saturday, but remains 4-1 in the ACC (the Blue Devils have lost to Illinois, Tulane and UConn in nonconference play, but did manage to beat Elon). So if the Blue Devils win their final three ACC games, they will reach the ACC Championship, and should they win that game, they would finish the season 9-4. It's easy to understand why some would wonder about where a 9-4 team would be ranked in relation to its fellow conference winners.

However, this ignores the reality of the situation. A Duke that wins out will pick up wins over Virginia, North Carolina and Wake Forest. In the ACC Championship, it would likely beat one of Georgia Tech, Pitt, or SMU. It could also face Louisville or Miami, though they're not nearly as likely.

Regardless, those wins would give Duke a strong enough resume to beat the second G6 champion. Let's not forget that the very first CFP rankings released last week didn't have a single G6 team in the top 25. The committee has already sent a loud message that they're not all that impressed with what they've seen outside the Power Four, and with Memphis losing to Tulane, and San Diego State losing to Hawaii, that opinion isn't likely to change for the better in this week's rankings.

Perhaps that's why people keep bringing up James Madison, but James Madison is not getting in. I don't say that because I don't believe a 12-1 James Madison wouldn't be worthy of a spot. Folks, if it were up to me, there'd be fewer at-larges and every conference champion would get in, but I digress.

James Madison is 8-1 now and has games remaining against Appalachian State, Washington State and Coastal Carolina. If it wins out and reaches the Sun Belt Championship, it will face Southern Miss or Troy. Entering the weekend, JMU's SOS was ranked 111th by FPI, and its strength of record was 32nd. Its remaining SOS was ranked 103rd, so we're looking at a final SOS that will likely remain outside the top 100. Duke's SOS is 70th with a remaining of 76, but an ACC Championship Game would do far more to bump it up than the Sun Belt title game will do to James Madison.

When comparing resumes, James Madison's simply won't stack up to Duke's, even with the four losses. The strongest part of James Madison's resume would be a 14-point loss at Louisville, but there's a chance Louisville is the team Duke beats in the ACC Championship! And even if it isn't Louisville, if your best asset is losing to a team in the conference whose champion you need to be deemed better than, how exactly does that logic work?

Another way to think of this is: Does a 9-3 Texas get an at-large bid? How about a 9-3 Oklahoma? There's a good chance they would because of their strength of schedule. Those two are ranked Nos. 11 and 12 this week, meaning they're at least 15 spots ahead of James Madison (again, no G6 team was ranked this week, and the committee said Memphis was the highest). While Duke's final SOS wouldn't be as strong as Texas' or Oklahoma's, if the committee considers those two to be at least 15 spots (and likely far more) better than James Madison, then how much difference would a fourth loss for Duke truly make in the rankings? Don't forget that while Boise State was the highest-ranked conference champ last season, 11-1 Army was the second-highest, and the Knights came in one spot behind 9-3 Syracuse in the final poll, and Syracuse had an SOS ranked 75th by FPI. Army's was 89th.

If all of that isn't enough to convince you, there's also this: do you really think Duke will win the ACC? Odds are the team that does win the league will be 11-2 or 10-3, whoever it is.

So don't waste any more time on the idea. It's not happening.

Other leagues can learn from the SEC

The SEC entered the weekend with eight teams that had two losses or fewer. Only six were in action this weekend, with five playing in SEC games. Then all the favorites won. The only two-loss team to lose was Missouri, which did so at home to Texas A&M by a score of 38-17. So even the one that lost was the one that was already out of the SEC title race.

While other leagues trip each other up every weekend, the SEC just goes out there and has its best teams win every week. That's how you get a bunch of teams into the field, and with every week that goes by, it feels more likely than not the SEC will get five teams in.

Hell, it could get six the way these other guys are stepping on land mines.

Wisconsin helped itself and hurt the Big Ten

Wisconsin beat No. 23 Washington 13-10, which was a cathartic win for everybody around the program. It was the Badgers' first Big Ten win of the season, ending a 10-game losing streak in conference. It was also a win that came a couple of days after Wisconsin announced Luke Fickell would be back next season, which didn't come as a surprise, but wasn't exactly a decision that was met with a warm round of applause from Wisconsin fans.

It was all forgotten in the cold, wintry conditions at Camp Randall Stadium after Wisconsin won a truly ugly football game. It may not be forgotten come Selection Sunday, because it closed yet another path to the Big Ten getting four teams into the playoff.

It was Washington's third loss of the season and knocked the Huskies out of contention in the Big Ten. There is no way a 9-3 Huskies team is getting in as an at-large, even with wins over Illinois and Oregon. The Wisconsin loss will be far too much to overcome.

The loss leaves the Big Ten with only five teams that have two losses or fewer, because Oregon also knocked Iowa out of the race in a thrilling win at Kinnick Stadium.

USC and Michigan sit at 7-2 and cannot afford another loss, but USC has to play Iowa next week and then faces Oregon on the road. Michigan has what should be two easy road games against Northwestern and Maryland, but gets Ohio State in Ann Arbor to finish the season. What's your confidence level on both winning out? How about one of them?

Indiana survived a scare against Penn State, so it and Ohio State are essentially locks at this point. Getting past Iowa was huge for Oregon, but it has two tough tests left in USC and Washington on the road (where the Huskies are much better). I've said it for a few weeks now, and the Big Ten has done nothing to turn the odds in its favor. Three teams feels far more likely than four, but at least Oregon's win makes three far more likely than two.

BYU did the Big 12 no favors

I'm not ready to rule out the possibility of the Big 12 getting two teams in, but I don't think BYU's performance in its 29-7 loss to Texas Tech helped. It's one thing to lose to the Red Raiders; it's another to look like a team that didn't belong on the same field as them.

The final score was not truly indicative of how the game played out. If not for the continuation of Texas Tech's red zone struggles -- Tech settled for four field goals and turned the ball over on downs in five of their seven red zone possessions, averaging only 3.7 points per trip -- this could've been more like a 41-7 kind of game. Maybe the committee will forget all about that if it's evaluating BYU as an at-large candidate at the end of the season, but I doubt it.

At this point, it feels like the Big 12 Championship will be Texas Tech facing the winner of BYU at Cincinnati on Nov. 22.

Rest In CFPeace

The following teams saw their College Football Playoff hopes die this weekend. We honor their memory here, and do not expect to mention them in this column again until next season

  • Iowa (6-3 overall, 4-2 B1G): It was a valiant effort, but in the end, Iowa fell victim to the mistakes it typically relies on its opponent to make. It shouldn't be lost on anybody that the Hawkeyes lost to Oregon by two points after gifting the Ducks a 2-0 lead on a bad snap during a punt.
  • Missouri (6-3 overall, 2-3 SEC): It felt like a matter of when, not if, Mizzou would be knocked out of contention when the Tigers lost Beau Pribula to injury, and the when was Saturday. Freshman QB Matt Zollers was 7-for-22 for 77 yards against the Aggies.
  • Washington (6-3 overall, 3-3 B1G): The big-bodied battering ram known as Jonah Coleman was precisely the kind of player you need to win a game in the wintry conditions the Huskies faced against Wisconsin Saturday night, so losing him to injury early in the game was a huge deal.

Week 12 Vibe Shifters

A look ahead to the five games on next week's slate most likely to impact the playoff race

This week's CFP Projection

Now that we've reached the time in the year when there will be CFP rankings, I want to make it clear this is not a prediction of what we'll see Tuesday night, but rather a predicted outcome of what the final field will look like

1. Ohio State
2. Texas A&M
3. Indiana
4. Alabama
5. Texas Tech
6. Oregon
7. Georgia
8. Notre Dame
9. Ole Miss
10. Oklahoma
11. Georgia Tech
12. South Florida