College Football Playoff Rankings projection: Oklahoma enters field, USC rises ahead of Oregon showdown

Oklahoma left no doubt and staked its claim in the College Football Playoff race over the weekend with a 23-21 win at Alabama, a resounding victory that will impact Tuesday night's third selection committee top 25 rankings. Coupled with Georgia's win against Texas, expect mass changes inside the top 10 along with several Group of Six entries at the back end of the rankings.

Different from our updated playoff bracket lookahead and bowl projections, this is how we think the committee's rankings will look Tuesday night based on various factors including strength of schedule, record strength, game control and what that group has already told us based on two prior reveals.

Tuesday marks the first rankings since Arkansas athletic director Hunter Yurachek was promoted to committee chair following Mack Rhoades' leave of absence. Utah athletic director Mark Harlan has also rejoined the committee after previously serving a one-year term during the 2023 season. We're not expecting those personnel changes to have a noticeable impact on the rankings.

Bowl projections: Georgia moves into first-round bye in College Football Playoff, Oklahoma enters bracket

Brad Crawford

1. Ohio State (10-0)

Don't be shocked when the Buckeyes sleepwalk through Saturday's upcoming matchup with Rutgers with Michigan on the horizon. It's officially time to start thinking about the Wolverines for a team who hasn't played a game within three touchdowns since the opener against Texas. That's how dominant Ohio State's been as college football's banner team in the Big Ten. Last week's ranking: No. 1

2. Indiana (11-0)

The Hoosiers are making it easy on the committee week after week. And the gap likely widened for the No. 2 spot in the rankings following Texas A&M's near-gaffe as a heavy home favorite against South Carolina. Those arguing that the Aggies deserve to be slotted ahead of Indiana are quiet at this point. The winner of Ohio State-Indiana in the Big Ten Championship Game (projected) should get the top seed in the playoff. Last week's ranking: No. 2

3. Texas A&M (10-0)

Texas A&M's season nearly took a hard left turn against the Gamecocks after falling behind by 27 points at halftime, but credit Mike Elko and the Aggies for showing the heart of a champion with an all-time turnaround. It was the first time in 287 SEC games since 2004 that a team trailing by 27 or more points won the game. Mesmerizing. Last week's ranking: No. 3

4. Georgia (9-1)

We've laid out the path for the Bulldogs getting a first-round bye in the playoff without playing in the SEC Championship Game and the first domino fell over the weekend with Alabama's loss to Oklahoma. They'll move to No. 4 in Tuesday night's rankings and are playing like the SEC's best team right now. Last week's ranking: No. 5

5. Texas Tech (10-1)

The Red Raiders are doing everything in their power to promote linebacker Jacob Rodriguez's Heisman candidacy, even giving him a carry for a touchdown in Saturday's blowout win over UCF. Texas Tech is the class of the Big 12 and is in the hunt for an opening-round bye. Last week's ranking: No. 6

6. Ole Miss (10-1)

The Lane Kiffin-Florida saga will reach finality at some point, but for now, the Ole Miss coach has another game to win and then some with the Rebels. The Kiffin noise is an obvious distraction in Oxford for a team capable of reaching the national championship game this season with a few breaks. That's something to watch moving forward. Last week's ranking: No. 7

7. Oregon (9-1)

The Ducks are in good standing -- for now. Things could change in a hurry if Oregon loses to USC at home this weekend. The Ducks' resume is not as sexy as most inside the top 10, but winning out guarantees a first-round home game and a special environment inside Autzen Stadium. Last week's ranking: No. 8

8. Oklahoma (8-2)

Firmly in the 12-team bracket after beating Alabama on the road, the Sooners should be ahead of the Crimson Tide on Tuesday night given the head-to-head win. However, we've already seen the committee skip over the head-to-head result when it comes to Notre Dame and Miami, so nothing should be all that surprising. Road wins over Tennessee and Alabama this season from Oklahoma is better than what most others have put together in terms of a resume away from home. Last week's ranking: No. 11

9. Alabama (8-2)

Here's the team that's most unpredictable this week in terms of where they'll land. On one hand, we could see the committee only pushing the Crimson Tide down to No. 6 given their body of work and the fact they doubled up the Sooners in total yardage despite Saturday's home loss. On the other? Alabama may suffer a major fall with the promise it would be back near the top four by winning out and taking care of business in the SEC Championship Game the first weekend of December. Last week's ranking: No. 4

10. Notre Dame (8-2)

Wins over Syracuse and Stanford are all that stand in the way of Notre Dame getting back to the playoff with a first-round road game. If the Fighting Irish lose one of those two, they're out and several at-large hopefuls have a shot. Last week's ranking: No. 9

11. BYU (9-1)

As the "first team out" this week given the expectation the No. 11 and 12 seeds are earmarked for the expected ACC and Group of Six champions, there's still work to be done for the Cougars. They're one step closer to a rematch with Texas Tech if they're able to take out Cincinnati on the road this weekend. Last week's ranking: No. 12

12. Utah (8-2)

On the heels of three consecutive blowout wins over Big 12 opponents since the midseason loss to BYU, the Utes are rolling. Winning out is not going to get Utah to the conference title game given losses to the two teams in front of them as potential tiebreakers, but the committee has shown a level of respect for what the Utes have done up to this point. We're expecting a team -- or two -- behind Utah to push ahead over the final two weeks of the season since the Utes' remaining games against Kansas State and Kansas aren't going to produce ideal record strength results. Last week's ranking: No. 13

13. USC (8-2)

The committee can justify a multi-spot climb from the Trojans this week following USC's win over nationally-ranked Iowa for two reasons -- it's another data point that trumps Georgia Tech's win at Boston College, Vanderbilt (idle) and Miami's win over NC State while guaranteeing this week's showdown at Oregon has extreme playoff significance. Last week's ranking: No. 17

14. Vanderbilt (8-2)

Yes, Vanderbilt has a head-to-head loss to Texas, but the better record trumps that result after Week 12 given the Longhorns' blowout loss at Georgia. The Commodores' best-case scenario is a 10-win finish, with the finale at Tennessee being a quality victory opportunity. At that point, Clark Lea's team will have to let the chips fall where they may in the at-large conversation. Last week's ranking: No. 14

15. Miami (8-2)

We've heard the committee's take on the Hurricanes and that strong belief will remain unchanged this week following Miami's impressive win over NC State. Considering the Wolfpack clobbered Georgia Tech before getting blown out by Miami, we're expecting the Hurricanes to still be the committee's highest-ranked ACC team. Last week's ranking: No. 15

16. Texas (7-3)

Before we go into hypotheticals on what a win over unbeaten Texas A&M in two weeks could do for the Longhorns, is that even feasible? Saturday night's lackluster performance at Georgia was Steve Sarkisian's ninth loss in 11 tries against top-6 competition at Texas, including his third against Kirby Smart in as many tries. Texas doesn't look like a playoff team entering Week 13. Last week's ranking: No. 10

17. Georgia Tech (9-1)

Independent of where the Yellow Jackets fall Tuesday night, the good news is they're in the driver's seat to reach the ACC Championship Game. And that's going to be good enough to reach the playoff with a win in Charlotte for Brent Key's program. Last week's ranking: No. 16

18. Michigan (8-2)

Winners of four straight since the loss to USC in Los Angeles, the Wolverines travel to Maryland this weekend before hosting unbeaten and top-ranked Ohio State. If Michigan upsets the Buckeyes, expect rapid ascension in the rankings. Last week's ranking: No. 18

19. Virginia (9-2)

A road underdog at Duke over the weekend, the Cavaliers left no doubt in Durham and have to feel good about their shot at reaching the ACC title game with an extra week to prepare for the regular-season finale against Virginia Tech in Charlottesville. Last week's ranking: No. 19

20. Tennessee (7-3)

At this point, Josh Heupel and the Vols will be playing spoiler to Vanderbilt's at-large playoff hopes in two weeks when they host the Commodores at Neyland Stadium. They'll move up this week considering the slew of Power Four teams that lost ahead of them. Last week's ranking: No. 23

21. Missouri (7-3)

There's a good chance the Tigers are back in the rankings after beating Mississippi State thanks to losses from Louisville, Iowa, Pittsburgh, USF and Cincinnati. And with quarterback Beau Pribula potentially returning against Oklahoma this weekend, that's quite an appetizing game in the SEC with playoff significance. Last week's ranking: No. 23

22. Washington (7-3)

The second team to re-enter the rankings this week after falling out, the Huskies' blowout win over Purdue should be enough to warrant inclusion, which would set up a ranked showdown with Oregon on Nov. 29 as long as Washington beats UCLA this weekend. Last week's ranking: No. 23

23. James Madison (9-1)

Could the Dukes be the first of three Group of Six teams in this week's updated rankings? Fresh off another blowout win to clinch a berth in the Sun Belt Championship Game, JMU's schedule simply isn't good enough to be the Group of Six's highest-rated champion unless there's more chaos to come in the American. Last week's ranking: N/A

24. Pittsburgh (7-3)

Don't expect the Panthers' loss to Notre Dame to tank their spot in the rankings, not with Georgia Tech on the docket in Week 13. Pat Narduzzi said before Saturday's setback against the Fighting Irish that his team was focused on their remaining two league contests with the Yellow Jackets and Miami, so we'll see what happens. Last week's ranking: No. 23

25. North Texas (9-1)

Quarterback Drew Mestemaker and the Mean Green have won four straight since that 63-36 loss to South Florida and only have to beat Rice and Temple to secure a spot in the American Championship Game. A potential first-round matchup with projected Big 12 champion Texas Tech would be quite sexy in the Lone Star State. Last week's ranking: N/A