College Football Playoff Rankings: Projecting top 25 teams ahead of fourth reveal

Getty Images

Before we get to this week's updated College Football Playoff Rankings projection, the selection committee will have to soon come to grips with this reality: The ACC's champion will be in the final bracket.

Virginia, SMU, Pittsburgh, Miami or Duke could be playing for a spot in the College Football Playoff in two weeks with a victory in the ACC Championship Game. Okay, maybe not the five-loss Blue Devils, but there's still a chance the league's doomsday scenario commences and an unranked team wins the conference.

By the way, the committee need not address the Notre Dame-Miami situation any longer. They've told us for weeks the teams aren't comparable yet since they're in different tiers and after the Fighting Irish's statement against Syracuse, there should be little doubt who looks the part after Week 13.

Bowl projections: Notre Dame, Oregon flex for College Football Playoff committee, Miami stays on bubble

Brad Crawford

Several spots back of the No. 10 seed, which is where the Hurricanes need to be to get in the bracket unless they win the ACC, it's going to take several games to go in Miami's favor this weekend to have a shot.

1. Ohio State (11-0)

Ryan Day can finally talk Michigan; The Game has arrived. Not to distract this team from its ultimate goal of winning another national championship this season, but a fifth straight loss to the hated rival would be nausea-inducing heading into the postseason. This is a road test in Week 14 that the Buckeyes should pass. Last week's ranking: No. 1

2. Indiana (11-0)

You've been force-fed enough Big Ten Championship scenarios by now. For the Hoosiers, the mission's simple: Beat Purdue as a four-touchdown favorite and they'll be playing for a conference title. We don't envision the upset of the year happening in college football and blowing a top-4 seed for Indiana. Last week's ranking: No. 2

3. Texas A&M (11-0)

The Aggies have put themselves in position for a conference championship and first-round bye opportunity with a win over Texas next time out. If the Longhorns hand Texas A&M its first loss, the Aggies will be playing at home in mid-December without extra time to rest. Last week's ranking: No. 3

4. Georgia (10-1)

This looks like best-case scenario for the Bulldogs. No worry with getting beat up in the SEC Championship Game and an opening-round bye as long as they take care of business against Georgia Tech. If Alabama beats Auburn and then beats Texas A&M in Atlanta, there's a chance the Bulldogs move out of the top four. Last week's ranking: No. 4

5. Texas Tech (10-1)

We believe the Red Raiders are pretty much set at No. 5 by winning out. However, a convincing win over BYU in the Big 12 Championship Game might sway the committee and push Texas Tech into the top four. The Red Raiders would risk losing a first-round home game with a loss at West Virginia or the following week. Last week's ranking: No. 5

6. Ole Miss (10-1)

The committee doesn't have to answer for the Lane Kiffin situation until its penultimate rankings next week once the Rebels have won or lost at Mississippi State and the coaching situation has finality. Until then, we're keeping Ole Miss in the six-hole this week. Last week's ranking: No. 6

7. Oregon (10-1)

Oregon's ranked win over USC might be enough to give the Ducks the No. 6 seed over Ole Miss, but that's as far they could possibly go. AP voters slotted Oregon at No. 5 ahead of Texas Tech, but the committee has made it clear they respect Texas Tech's game control metric and how the Red Raiders have dominated the competition. Last week's ranking: No. 7

8. Oklahoma (9-2)

Should we worry about the Sooners' offensive struggles in November? Maybe. Wins over Alabama and Missouri cloud the fact this team simply hasn't looked polished under John Mateer, primarily due to no rushing attack. At least Oklahoma's defense is one of the nation's best. Perhaps the Sooners can ride that unit to a title. Last week's ranking: No. 8

9. Notre Dame (9-2)

The Fighting Irish just look like a national championship contender and that's part of why the selection committee slotted Notre Dame ahead of Alabama last week. Notre Dame's left no doubt since starting the season with consecutive losses and its 70-point explosion against Syracuse was ideal for style points. No at-large team, right now, is playing better football collectively on both sides of the football. Last week's ranking: No. 9

10. Alabama (9-2)

No team in the ranking this week has wider potential variance than the Crimson Tide depending on what what happens over the next two weekends. A loss at Auburn means Alabama is out, but a win over the Tigers puts Kalen DeBoer's team in the 12-team bracket and then they'll be playing for enhanced seeding against Texas A&M or Georgia in Atlanta. Last week's ranking: No. 10

11. BYU (10-1)

Leave nothing up to chance. That has to be the message for Kalani Sitake to his group the rest of the way. A win over UCF and BYU will play for a conference championship with an opportunity to enact revenge on Texas Tech. The Big 12 being a two-bid league, in that scenario, is likely. Last week's ranking: No. 11

12. Utah (9-2)

Several at-large hopefuls have needed a loss from the Utes in recent weeks to move up and, well, Utah hasn't obliged. The Utes have won four straight since a loss to BYU, including Saturday night's 51-47 comeback against Kansas State. Utah trailed by 12 midway through the fourth quarter of that one. Last week's ranking: No. 12

13. Miami (9-2)

If the committee wants drama, they could push the Hurricanes ahead of the Utes at No. 12 with the "second team out" designation this week, but we're projecting chalk to continue inside the top 12. That's a result of no major upsets last weekend, which should make for easy-to-project rankings for those just inside the bracket and on the bubble. Last week's ranking: No. 13

14. Vanderbilt (9-2)

If the Commodores beat Tennessee inside Neyland Stadium and the Longhorns hand Texas A&M its first loss, is there a chance the committee slots Texas ahead of Vanderbilt next week despite a worse record? Yes. This is where head-the-head will come into play with extreme importance. Last week's ranking: No. 14

15. Texas (8-3)

Stop blaming the season-opening loss at Ohio State for being on the outside lookin in, Texas fans. Take care of business at anemic Florida and the Longhorns' placement would not be in the hands of the committee. A win over Texas A&M could make things interesting, but the lack of a clear path necessary to get to No. 10 by the end of this weekend is evident. Last week's ranking: No. 17

16. Michigan (9-2)

If the Wolverines beat Ohio State, the committee has to find a way to put them in the playoff, right? That would be their second ranked win if Washington enters the rankings this week as expected. There are three scenarios in which Michigan could play for a Big Ten Championship but unfortunately for the Wolverines, all involve either Indiana or Oregon losing their respective finales. Last week's ranking: No. 18

17. USC (8-3)

Lincoln Riley had no time for "dumb questions" following the Trojans' 42-27 loss at Oregon that nuked playoff hopes. There's no path for USC, even with a season-ending win over UCLA, to get back in the 12-team conversation. Last week's ranking: No. 15

18. Virginia (9-2)

The first of two ACC teams still in control of their own destiny, the Cavaliers are in the league championship game if they're able to beat Virginia Tech. It would be quite a feat for coach Tony Elliott considering where this program was in recent years. Last week's ranking: No. 19

19. Tennessee (8-3)

Don't let the inflated ranking fool you, the Vols have beaten one team with a winning record this season (East Tennessee). Narrow losses to Georgia and Oklahoma were tough to stomach at home and Tennessee gets one last opportunity against a ranked opponent against Vanderbilt. Last week's ranking: No. 20

20. Pittsburgh (8-3)

If the Panthers beat Miami and get some help, they're going to be playing for a spot in the playoff bracket since the ACC champion and Group of Six's highest-ranked champion will get the final two seeds (we project). That's not guaranteed, however. As it stands, last week's blowout loss to Notre Dame -- like Pat Narduzzi said -- doesn't carry much weight. Last week's ranking: NR

21. Georgia Tech (9-2)

When Brent Key's team looks in the mirror this week, disappointment will set in. Sure, they could shake it off and topple Georgia in Atlanta, but not even a win over the Bulldogs is going to be enough to convince the committee the Yellow Jackets are playoff-worthy. Late-season losses to NC State and Pitt really sting. Last week's ranking: No. 16

22. Tulane (9-2)

Three Group of Six teams were ranked in Sunday's AP poll, but that won't be the case Tuesday night. Tulane was the committee's only selection from the Group of Six last week and that's the expectation again. James Madison has a case after beating Washington State, but the Dukes' resume weakened after Louisville lost at SMU. Louisville handed JMU its only loss this season. Last week's ranking: No. 24

23. Arizona State (8-3)

The Sun Devils battled through a tougher-than-expected challenge at Colorado to win thanks to a fourth-quarter flurry. There's a sliver of hope to get back to the Big 12 title game because of it. If Arizona State beats Arizona, the Sun Devils need a UCF upset of BYU or a West Virginia upset of Texas Tech and a Kansas upset of Utah to get there. Last week's ranking: No. 25

24. SMU (8-3)

It's important for the Mustangs to be ranked ahead of this week's game against California. A win puts them in the ACC Championship next week in Charlotte with a chance to play for a playoff spot, again -- as long as they're ranked. We're expecting the blowout win over Louisville to be plenty. Last week's ranking: NR

25. Washington (8-3)

Since the upset loss at Wisconsin, the Huskies have humiliated Purdue and UCLA to get to eight wins. They'll be ranked this week in part to set up a "good on good" matchup with Oregon that has seed implications for the Ducks. Last week's ranking: NR