College Football Playoff Rankings projection: Elites get final chance before committee's first top 25 reveal

We've entered college football's last weekend of action prior to the College Football Playoff Selection Committee's first top 25 rankings reveal on Tuesday night, a precursor to a scintillating home stretch that will determine the final bracket.

There's a few teams out near the top of the rankings who look to avoid upsets in Week 10 that would disrupt impressive performances up to this point, but at this rate, most of the cream has risen to the top in terms of the nation's frontrunners.

Here's a projection of how the selection committee's current top 25 would look entering Saturday's biggest games of Week 10:

1. Ohio State (7-0)

The Buckeyes are the team to beat nationally, anchored by a defense playing at an elite level and several uncoverable stars with an appetite for explosive plays on the other side of the football. Ohio State would unquestionably be the top seed in the postseason if we kicked off the playoff this month.

Ranked wins: 2 (Texas, Illinois)

2. Indiana (8-0)

A pair of top 10 wins and blowouts in other spots outside of a fourth-quarter victory at Iowa. There's a lot to like about the Hoosiers, and we don't see them falling anywhere lower than No. 2 if this keeps up. Not only did Curt Cignetti find another transfer portal gem in quarterback Fernando Mendoza, but Indiana's strength and ferocity at the line of scrimmage has been equally impressive.

Ranked wins: 2 (Illinois, Oregon)

3. Texas A&M (8-0)

Another data point for the Aggies, one that would skyrocket this team's value in the eyes of the selection committee. Saturday night's blistering of LSU on the road was a signature victory for Mike Elko and impressed one AP voter enough to slot this team No. 1 overall in Week 10. We project the committee would have Texas A&M at No. 3, behind two Big Ten titans with similar resumes.

Ranked wins: 2 (Notre Dame, LSU)

4. Alabama (7-1)

No team has more ranked wins than the Crimson Tide, and the selection committee would obviously take note. With an open date heading into the playoff top 25's first reveal, we're expecting Alabama — at worst — to be the No. 4 seed. 

Ranked wins: 4 (Georgia, Vanderbilt, Missouri, Tennessee)

5. Georgia (7-1)

The Bulldogs get the nod over Ole Miss in this spot for the 5-seed after beating the Rebels head to head a few weeks ago in Athens. A first-round home game at Sanford Stadium would feed families in Georgia, an immediate sellout at one of college football's toughest places to play. A three-point loss to Alabama is all that stands, right now, between Georgia playing in mid-December or getting that opening-round bye.

Ranked wins: 2 (Tennessee, Ole Miss)

6. Ole Miss (7-1)

Congrats, Lane Kiffin. You'd have your first playoff appearance and another home game if the final rankings were out this week. Saturday's win at Oklahoma was Kiffin's first against a ranked SEC opponent on the road during his tenure. With a favorable schedule left, the Rebels would have to flatline in November to be left out.

Ranked wins: 2 (LSU, Oklahoma)

7. Miami (6-1)

Where would the selection committee place the Hurricanes today? Despite one loss in ACC play to Louisville, we project that group to view Miami fondly due to the impressive early-season wins over various ranked opponents. All the analytics point to Miami being elite at the line of scrimmage, and that would be taken into account in the seeding.

Ranked wins: 3 (Notre Dame, USF, Florida State)

8. Vanderbilt (7-1)

The selection committee's fifth SEC selection at this junction would be the Commodores. You can't overlook the resume this team has built this season, albeit three wins over top-25 teams who have since faded for various reasons — partly beaus Vanderbilt beat them. Consecutive home victories over ranked teams have pushed Vanderbilt into the top 10 and there's opportunity for a third this weekend at Texas.

Ranked wins: 3 (South Carolina, LSU, Missouri)

9. Oregon (7-1)

That win at Penn State isn't carrying much weight as the season matures for the Ducks, is it? Regardless, Oregon would be a playoff selection at this point and could even get a first-round home game given how well the Ducks have looked outside of the loss to unbeaten Indiana.

Ranked wins: 1 (Penn State)

10. BYU (8-0)

Recent wins over Utah and Iowa State have catapulted the Cougars to the top of the Big 12 standings. Coupled with Texas Tech's recent loss to Arizona State and immense injury worries, BYU would be the pick right now as the designated league champion. Kalani Sitake's program got off to a hot start last fall as well before folding down the stretch.

Ranked wins: 1 (Utah)

11. Georgia Tech (8-0)

One of only five remaining unbeatens in the Power Four, Georgia Tech would get its first playoff appearance if this week was the final vote. Brent Key has done a tremendous job avoiding various upsets in league play since beating Clemson in September and the Yellow Jackets have climbed on the back of their senior quarterback Haynes King.

Ranked wins: 1 (Clemson)

12. Notre Dame (6-2)

The bubble was invented for programs like Notre Dame, who seems to always hover around that 10-win mark with a couple quality wins every season. Marcus Freeman has the Fighting Irish back in the mix, even after losing their first two games of the season to Miami and Texas A&M. An upcoming showdown with current unbeaten Navy gives Notre Dame another opportunity at a quality win. But if the season ended today, this would be the first team out due to the Group of Five's auto-bid (Projected: No. 24 Memphis).

Ranked wins: 1 (USC)

13. Tennessee (6-2)
14. Texas Tech (7-1)
15. Louisville (6-1)
16. Cincinnati (7-1)
17. Virginia (7-1)
18. Texas (6-2)
19. Oklahoma (6-2)
20. Missouri (6-2)
21. Michigan (6-2)
22. USC (6-2)
23. Houston (7-1)
24. Memphis (8-1)
25. Utah (6-2)

Projected first-round CFP games

• No. 9 Oregon at No. 8 Vanderbilt
• No. 10 BYU at No. 7 Miami
• No. 11 Georgia Tech at No. 6 Ole Miss
• No. 12 Memphis at No. 5 Georgia

You'd hear immediate griping from other leagues if the SEC gets three first-round home games for various at-large selections, but quality wins are going to matter and Georgia, Vanderbilt and Ole Miss each have more than Oregon, BYU, Georgia Tech and Memphis this season. By virtue of Memphis being the projected Group of Five champion following last week's win over USF, the Tigers would likely be the highest-ranked team among the non-Powers at No. 24. That would kick Notre Dame out of the mix at No. 12 and push Memphis to that first-round designation at fifth-seeded Georgia.