Tom Fornelli's CFP Vibe Check, Week 12: Texas poised to start arguments, Big Ten gets results it needed

The Texas Longhorns got their butts kicked 35-10 by Georgia on Saturday night. The Longhorns struck first with a field goal to take a 3-0 lead after a 13-play, 59-yard drive that really set the tone for how the entire evening would go.

"We are the mighty Longhorns, churning out 4.5 yards per play to put 3 whole points on the board."

Georgia responded with touchdowns on its next two possessions, which turned out to be all the points it would need. Texas' lone touchdown drive in the game was a 36-yard drive following a Gunner Stockton interception.

The loss dropped Texas to 7-3 and put them in a position to be the subject of plenty of debates with your family at Thanksgiving dinner this year, because Texas has a chance to be The Hot 3-Loss Team being floated as an at-large.

The arguments for are simple. If Texas wins out, it will beat a Texas A&M team that's highly likely to be 11-0 after coming back from a 30-3 halftime deficit to beat South Carolina. The Aggies get Samford next week, so, like I said, they'll be 11-0. Texas will also have wins against Oklahoma -- which beat Alabama Saturday and may finish 10-2 -- and Vanderbilt, both of whom are likely to remain ranked through the final week of the College Football Playoff Rankings.

Those are three impressive wins that help negate those three losses.

The argument against is the losses. Nobody will give Texas the side eye for a 14-7 loss at Ohio State to begin the season. However, that loss to Florida looks even worse after the Gators fell to 3-7 after losing to Ole Miss. There's also the 25-point loss to Georgia.

It's one thing to lose to Georgia; it's another to lose by 25. Should a team with three losses really get an at-large bid when one of the losses was by 25 points and the other was to a team that might finish 3-9?

I see both sides of the argument, and obviously, we need a lot more context before reaching the final decision. We don't know which teams Texas is fighting for this at-large spot, so we can't compare resumes. What I do know, though, is that I'm already out on Texas.

The problem with a 12-team playoff is you have to find 12 teams for it, and in any given season, it will be difficult to find 12 teams that feel truly deserving. Like, when you consider Texas lost to Ohio State and Georgia by a combined score of 49-17, it's hard to feel confident about this team's chance to make a deep playoff run and win a national title. But it's hard to feel that way about most teams.

Which is why, when push comes to shove, I'd rather reward a 10-2 team with no shot of winning the national title than a 9-3 team with no shot of winning the national title. Whether that team comes from the Big 12 or Big Ten makes no difference to me. Everybody will be screaming about strength of schedule as if playing good teams makes you a good team. It doesn't -- it just proves whether you're good enough, and it's obvious to me that Texas isn't good enough.

Perhaps this hypothetical win over Texas A&M would change that, but it would need to be in an impressive fashion. A narrow upset won't move my needle nearly far enough, because I can't get over the idea of a team that loses 25% of its games getting a fourth chance to prove to us it simply isn't good enough.

Nobody wants Georgia right now

One of the things coaches need to figure out in this expanded playoff era is how to manage the season. You don't want to go all out too early and risk your team burning out too soon or suffering a bunch of injuries. You want to live up to the old cliche of "peaking at the right time."

Ohio State did this to perfection last year. There's no way in hell it was happy about losing to Michigan, but the Buckeyes took something of a relaxed approach to most of their regular season, saving the extra effort for their biggest games. Two of which they lost. Then the playoff started, and they were in juggernaut form from the first snap against Tennessee to the final one against Notre Dame.

Georgia kind of looks like a team that's not following the same plan but one that is rounding into form. The Dawgs were playing with their food pretty often in their SEC games but dominated Mississippi State from the start last week. Against Texas, they proved it wasn't just the benefit of playing Mississippi State. They put Texas to bed early and never let the Longhorns entertain the idea of coming back, even pulling out an onside kick.

I worry about some injuries on the defensive side of the ball, but the Dawgs are done with SEC play. If they really wanted to, they could rest the next few weeks and still find themselves in the playoff, and perhaps still the SEC Championship Game.

Regardless of what they choose to do, they are playing their best football of the year right now, and I guarantee you every other playoff contender out there is hoping somebody knocks Georgia out of the tournament before they have to face them.

Big Ten got the results it needed

It wasn't an anxiety-free Saturday for the Big Ten. While Ohio State cruised against a Nico-less UCLA, Indiana got off to a slow start against Wisconsin before pulling away in the second half.

Then there were USC and Michigan, the remaining two-loss teams hoping to be the league's fourth entrant. Michigan turned the ball over five times against Northwestern at Wrigley Field before winning 24-22 on a 31-yard field goal from Dominic Zvada as time expired.

Later in the day, USC fell behind Iowa 21-7 in the first half and was getting beaten so badly along the lines of scrimmage that it was difficult to imagine the Trojans mounting a comeback in the constant rain. But they did. The Trojans got their act together in the second half, shut out the Hawkeyes over the final 30 minutes and came back to win 26-21.

That keeps both alive in the playoff race, and sets up a monster matchup next week between USC and Oregon (3:30 p.m. ET on CBS and Paramount+ Premium). While those wins were important, the league got help from its other top teams, too. Illinois' 24-6 win over Maryland helps make sure USC's loss to Illinois remains a "good loss," while Washington's 49-13 win over Purdue improved the Huskies to 7-3 and helps the resumes of Ohio State, Michigan, and possibly Oregon, whom the Huskies will play to finish the regular season.

Last week in this column, I wrote about the example the SEC was setting for everybody by having all its good teams win every week. This week, the Big Ten followed the SEC's lead. All that, combined with losses from Texas and Alabama, gives the Big Ten a better chance of getting four teams in than it had to start the weekend.

Oklahoma had an incredible day

I won't tell you Oklahoma played well, because it didn't. I would argue that Oklahoma's 23-21 win over Alabama Saturday had far more to do with Alabama losing the game than it did Oklahoma winning it, but you know what? If you're an Oklahoma fan, you have no reason to care about how or why it happened.

All that matters is you won a game you weren't supposed to, and hours later, Texas, your rival and the team that handed you one of your two losses, didn't. Oh, and the other team you lost to, Ole Miss, won again. So now you've got two excellent wins on your resume in Alabama and Michigan, as well as a nice one with Tennessee, all of which overcome the two good losses.

Now all you have to do is beat Missouri (without its starting QB) and LSU (possibly without its original starting QB and definitely without its original coach) at home to finish the regular season, and there's no doubt you're in the field. That's an incredible spot to be in.

Feels like we're getting a BYU-Texas Tech rematch

BYU responded well to last week's 29-7 loss at Texas Tech, pounding TCU 44-13. The Cougars still have to play Cincinnati on the road next week, but the Bearcats will enter that game on a two-game losing streak. They came back from their bye this week and lost at home to Arizona -- which might finish 9-3!? -- 30-24.

That loss leaves BYU and Texas Tech as the only one-loss teams in Big 12 play. Maybe Cincinnati recovers to beat the Cougars next week, but based on what I've seen from them in their last two games, I'm not optimistic about their chances.

And it's not the result the Big 12 wants, either. The perfect scenario for the Big 12 is the rematch in the Big 12 Championship Game because there's a decent chance the loser of that game still gets in as an at-large. The selection committee has made it clear it does not want to punish conference title game losers too harshly because the conferences like having these games. They make money off them, so punishing teams for losing them would lead to teams no longer wanting to play them, and that's bad business.

As for Texas Tech, the Red Raiders beat UCF 48-9 and will finish the regular season at West Virginia.

Watching the ACC be like

At least we don't have to entertain the "What if Duke wins the ACC?" hypothetical nonsense anymore.

Avast, ye mateys!

The biggest result in The American this weekend was probably Navy taking down South Florida 41-38. It was a horrible loss for USF because it made it extremely difficult for the Bulls to get to the conference championship game, which wipes out all the work they did in nonconference play to set themselves up for a playoff spot. However, it also sets up a fascinating final few weeks in the league as four teams, including Navy, have only one loss in conference play.

One of those teams is East Carolina, which ended Memphis' hopes Saturday night in a thrilling 31-27 win.

East Carolina has been the one team that's been in the race the entire season, but nobody has ever mentioned it as a possibility to win The American. They're a ghost ship. But, make no mistake about it, the Pirates are very much in the hunt after the Memphis win. The concern is that their final two games of the season are both on the road, and UTSA, which the Pirates play next week, has proven to be a much more difficult team to beat at home.

I'll be pulling for the Pirates, though, if for no other reason than my belief that East Carolina reaching the College Football Playoff would make so many people angry. Pirates have a way of bringing that out of people.

Rest In CFPeace

The following teams saw their College Football Playoff hopes die this weekend. We honor their memory here, and do not expect to mention them in this column again until next season.

• Duke (5-5 overall, 4-2 ACC): I wrote about the absurdity of the idea the ACC champion would be left out of the playoff last week, and the most important thing I said in the story was how the entire idea relied upon the ability of Duke to win out. Well, we didn't have to wait long, did we?
• Louisville (7-3 overall, 4-3 ACC): The Cardinals lost at home to Clemson 20-19 on Friday night, their second straight home loss. Not only does this one knock the Cards out of the ACC picture, but it hurts James Madison's already flimsy case too.
• Memphis (8-3 overall, 4-3 AAC): The loss to East Carolina took the Tigers out of The American title race. It was Memphis' third loss in five games after a 6-0 start to the season that included a win over Arkansas.
• Southern Miss (7-3 overall, 5-1 Sun Belt): OK, so I didn't think Southern Miss had a shot, but it feels pretty official now. Even if the Eagles win the Sun Belt, you have to think a 27-point home loss to Texas State will be a disqualifier.

Week 13 Vibe Shifters

A look ahead to the five games on next week's slate most likely to impact the playoff race

• BYU at Cincinnati
• Pitt at Georgia Tech
• USC at Oregon
• Missouri at Oklahoma
• East Carolina at UTSA

This week's CFP Projection

Now that we've reached the time in the year when there will be CFP rankings, I want to make it clear this is not a prediction of what we'll see Tuesday night, but rather a predicted outcome of what the final field will look like

1. Ohio State
2. Georgia
3. Indiana
4. Texas A&M
5. Texas Tech
6. Oregon
7. Alabama
8. Ole Miss
9. Notre Dame
10. Oklahoma
11. Georgia Tech
12. North Texas