College Football Playoff picture: James Madison's uphill battle to make field

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I think Oregon is safely in the College Football Playoff field following its 42-27 win over USC on Saturday. A lot of things went the Ducks' way this weekend.

Going into the weekend, I wasn't nearly as confident. If Oregon had lost to USC and finished the year with a win over Washington, it would be 10-2 on the season, but without an overly impressive win. The selection committee has gone on the record to say that it's treating Oregon's win over Penn State with far more respect than Penn State's current state of affairs would seem to call for, and that's good for the Ducks, but I don't know that it would be enough.

If Oregon were 10-2 and thrown in a bucket with all the other 10-2 teams, and possibly even a 9-3 Texas, I don't know how favorably that resume would look in comparison.

But Oregon took care of that Saturday. By beating USC, Oregon can add a top-20 win to its resume. Plus, Penn State blew out Nebraska, 37-10, and is now a win over Rutgers away from being 6-6 and bowl-eligible. That looks a lot better on the resume than a 5-7 Penn State, silly as it may seem.

I know the general public is dismissive of Penn State, and for perfectly logical reasons, but the fact of the matter is, power ratings still largely consider the Nittany Lions one of the 20 best teams in the country, despite the wheels completely falling off, and the Penn State team Oregon beat was much different than the one we see now.

Also, with Washington putting a beating on UCLA late Saturday night, the Huskies will head into next week with a record of 8-3, and might find themselves ranked again on Tuesday night. So if the Ducks lose to Washington next week, they're 10-2 with two ranked losses and a ranked win over USC. Hell, if Iowa beats Nebraska on Black Friday, the Hawkeyes may find themselves ranked again, which helps Oregon's resume even more.

If Oregon goes on the road to beat Washington, there's no doubt the Ducks are getting in.

So, if you're an Oregon fan right now, I think you can sleep comfortably knowing you're in. Of course, that doesn't mean there isn't plenty to play for. A win at Washington next week likely secures a first-round home game at Autzen Stadium. A loss and you're probably going on the road.

'Sit Still Saturday'

A lot of times, when college football fans spend all week complaining about the upcoming weekend's games, we see insane results that turn the season on its head. Week 13 was not one of those times. Of the teams in last week's top 25, 21 played this weekend, and no team in the top 14 lost. The highest-ranked team to lose was No. 15 USC at Oregon.

Other than the Trojans, we saw No. 16 Georgia Tech, No. 21 Illinois, No. 22 Missouri, and No. 23 Houston fall. Of those four, only Georgia Tech had a realistic path to the playoff field by winning the ACC.

All of which means the arguments we have this week will be the same arguments we had last week. I don't want to spoil Tuesday night for you, but I bet Notre Dame is still ranked at least four spots ahead of Miami. Who knows? Maybe the committee will live dangerously and move the Hurricanes ahead of Utah after the Utes narrowly avoided disaster in a 51-47 win over Kansas State.

Bowl projections: Notre Dame, Oregon flex for College Football Playoff committee, Miami stays on bubble

Brad Crawford

I think the only drama in the top 12 this week will be whether Oregon jumps Ole Miss. Tune in Tuesday night to find out!

Vandy needs eye-popping wins

Vanderbilt beat up Kentucky, 45-17, and lest you think the game was even that close, you should know the Commodores held a 45-3 lead after three quarters. I'm sure they're hoping the committee paid attention, because they know they're facing an uphill battle to get into the field.

If Vanderbilt finishes the season with a win at Tennessee, it'll be 10-2, but it will be a 10-2 team in the precarious position of having to rely on Resume Losses. The Commodores had wins over South Carolina, LSU and Missouri when those teams were ranked at the time, but none of the three are likely to be ranked come Tuesday night. Missouri was ranked this week, but it lost at Oklahoma 17-6 and looked every bit as dreadful as the final score suggests.

Tennessee will remain ranked after beating Florida, 31-11, but if the Vols lose to the Commodores, they'll fall to 8-4. My guess is they'd still be ranked after that, too, because all four of their losses would come to likely top-15 teams. Still, even that's not a guarantee since the Vols wouldn't have a single win over a team with a winning record (Kentucky and Mississippi State can finish 6-6 at best) in this scenario.

So, in comparison to other 10-2 teams, I don't know if a win over 8-4 Tennessee would be enough for Vandy to merit at-large consideration. They'd have to beat Tennessee by quite a bit to make an impression -- like they did against Kentucky. You may think the Commodores are simply trying to pump up Diego Pavia's stats (532 total yards, 6 total TD against Kentucky) to help his Heisman case, but you'd be wrong. They're trying to make their CFP case, too.

Nothing went James Madison's way

I've been on the record for a while that I don't think James Madison has a path to the playoffs. When the committee put Tulane in the rankings last week -- the same Tulane with two losses, one of which came by 22 points to then 5-5 UTSA -- ahead of the Dukes, it felt like a pretty clear message to me.

"We don't want to put James Madison in unless we are literally left with no other choice."

Well, James Madison didn't help itself Saturday, and it got little help elsewhere. The Dukes rallied from a 17-10 halftime deficit to beat Washington State 24-20, but missed an opportunity. The Cougars made a game of it against Ole Miss and Virginia on the road this season, losing to both by a combined five points. Had James Madison blown the Cougars out, it might've swayed the committee a bit.

"Hey, we beat the hell out of this team that hung tight with possibly two of the teams you'll have in the field this season."

I don't think a 24-20 win will be enough to move the needle, even if it is the largest margin of victory among the three! Making matters worse for the Dukes, Louisville lost to SMU 38-6, falling to 7-4. The Dukes can't get any help from their Sun Belt brethren, either.

Last week, Southern Miss, which was undefeated in conference play and led the West Division, dropped a stunner against Texas State, getting blown out at home 41-14. This week, Southern Miss followed it up with a 42-35 road loss to a South Alabama team that's now 4-7. I did not watch the game, but I can't help but wonder if Southern Miss realized the outcome of the game meant nothing to them, because they play Troy -- the team they're now tied with in the standings -- next week. Even if the Eagles beat South Alabama this week, they still had to beat Troy next week to reach the conference championship.

While it meant nothing to the Eagles, it meant something to James Madison. Now, whether it's Southern Miss or Troy, the Dukes face in the Sun Belt Championship, they're playing an 8-4 team. That's not to say beating a 10-2 Southern Miss would've been enough, but it definitely would've helped more than an 8-4 Southern Miss win.

One thing I'm interested in seeing in this week's ranking, particularly with three teams in the bottom five of last week's losing, is whether James Madison finally cracks the top 25. I'd still guess no. In fact, I'd bet we see a second American team in before we see the Dukes. Just so the committee can really hammer the point home.

Rest In CFPeace

The following teams saw their College Football Playoff hopes die this weekend. We honor their memory here, and do not expect to mention them in this column as playoff hopefuls again until next season.

Cincinnati (7-4 overall, 5-3 Big 12): The Bearcats lost at home to BYU, 26-14, eliminating them from Big 12 title contention. It was their only path into the field.
East Carolina (7-4 overall, 5-2 American): I wrote about East Carolina being the invisible playoff contender last week, and now their playoff hopes are invisible too. The Pirates were sunk 58-24 by UAB, and while we know the committee will forgive blowout losses to the Roadrunners, they'll only do it when you can still win your conference.
Georgia Tech (9-2 overall, 6-2 ACC): Georgia Tech is still mathematically alive in the ACC following a 42-28 home loss to Pitt, but I feel safe declaring the Yellow Jackets' playoff hopes to be done.
Houston (8-3 overall, 5-3 Big 12): Houston needed a laundry list of things to go its way to reach the Big 12 Championship Game, but it failed to control the one thing it could control: not losing. The Cougars lost at home to TCU, 17-14, putting an end to their conference title hopes.
USC (8-3 overall, 6-2 B1G): USC's loss to Oregon no longer gives them a path to the Big Ten title for an automatic berth, and it gives the Trojans a third loss that will prove impossible to overcome in the pursuit of an at-large.