How the College Football Playoff Selection Committee would view Ole Miss if Lane Kiffin leaves Rebels

If No. 7 Ole Miss beats Mississippi State in the Egg Bowl on Friday to finish its regular season at 11-1, the Rebels are headed to the College Football Playoff for the first time in program history as one of the selection committee's seven at-large picks.

They've earned it -- even if that means taking the field for the first round without the coach who helped lead them there.

Don't buy the doomsday scenarios suggesting Lane Kiffin's potential departure to LSU will keep Ole Miss out of the 12-team bracket. While that would be a new "data point," according to committee chair Hunter Yurachek. An 11-win SEC team isn't getting tossed aside.

It would be unfair to penalize the players after a terrific three-month stretch. The reward is a playoff appearance.

"We didn't have any discussion about Ole Miss and their coach," Yurachek said, while acknowledging it could factor into seeding if Kiffin leaves. "That was all about Oregon and their performance against USC. Their strength of schedule continues to climb. The committee's been waiting for them to have a signature win."

Kiffin deflecting the spotlight and boosting his players ahead of the widely projected conclusion that he's on the way out. While his offensive acumen is notable -- and he has schematically set transfer quarterback Trinidad Chambliss up for tremendous success -- he hasn't thrown a touchdown pass, made a tackle or raced to the end zone.

"They're the ones making the plays, not me," Kiffin said during an appearance on ESPN last week. "All this success, all this credit and these things, it's because of the players and the assistant coaches putting it all together and making this stuff happen."

That covers every base in describing Ole Miss as one of the nation's "best teams," which is the committee's mission during deliberations. However Ole Miss' seeding could be impacted by Kiffin's exit, a source close to the committee told CBS Sports last week.

Among the four principles the committee uses to split otherwise comparable teams, "other relevant factors" can include the "unavailability of key players and coaches that may have affected a team's performance during the season or likely will affect its postseason performance." 

That could be viewed as a negative for the Rebels.

The Florida State precedent was set in 2023 when the committee excluded the unbeaten Seminoles after Jordan Travis suffered a season-ending injury.

"I feel they aren't nuked like FSU," the source said.

The final voting process includes seven rounds of ballots. Members first select a pool of six teams to evaluate, then rank them in groups of four across four rounds before finishing the final three rounds in groups of three. In the second round of voting, the four teams slotted at Nos. 5-8 -- the first-round home-game seeds -- are determined. This is where a potential Kiffin departure could come into play.

Ole Miss isn't jumping No. 5 Texas Tech or No. 6 Oregon if those two win out. No. 8 Oklahoma could strengthen its case to push ahead of the Rebels if it throttles a bowl-bound LSU -- a common opponent for both.

The plot thickens if Ole Miss loses at Mississippi State and joins the logjam of 10-win teams in the at-large mix. Here's a look at both scenarios for the Rebels based on intel we've received and what could unfold.

If Ole Miss beats Mississippi State

• A source close to the committee says the Rebels can punch their playoff ticket in Starkville with a win, though seeding could be affected if Kiffin leaves afterward and takes his coordinators with him. That concern becomes moot if Ole Miss announces Saturday that Kiffin has signed an extension -- first-round home game secured.

If Ole Miss loses at Mississippi State

• The Rebels would finish 10-2, along with Oklahoma, Notre Dame and Alabama if those teams win as favorites entering conference championship weekend. Toss in BYU and Utah and there's two more additions to that at-large grouping with Cougars being an 11-win team.
• Entering rivalry week, CBS Sports projects five locks in the 12-team playoff bracket — Ohio State, Indiana, Texas A&M, Georgia, the Big 12 champion (Texas Tech or BYU), Oregon, the Group of Five champion (Tulane or North Texas) and either the ACC champion or a second Group of Five conference champion. That leaves four spots for others.

Final projection

• No matter Kiffin's final decision, we're expecting the Rebels to find a spot in the 12-team bracket with an Egg Bowl victory. Continuing hypotheticals here, Oregon beating Washington on the road would assure the Ducks are ahead of Ole Miss in the final rankings and the Rebels could move further down the top 10 if Alabama upends Auburn and then beats Texas A&M in the SEC Championship Game. We project the final seed for a first-round home game to come down to Notre Dame (10-2) and Ole Miss (11-1).