College Football Playoff odds, picks, betting preview: Is Ohio State vs. Indiana rematch inevitable?
Here's a look at everything sports fans and bettors need to know for the 2025-26 College Football Playoff
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6 min read
The 2025-26 College Football Playoff begins on Friday, Dec. 19, with the Alabama Crimson Tide heading to Norman to take on the Oklahoma Sooners. The Sooners won the regular season meeting between these sides 23-21, and some might debate whether Alabama even deserves to be in the playoff as a three-loss team while Notre Dame and BYU were left out despite having one fewer loss. The other three first-round games will take place Saturday, Dec. 20, with Oregon hosting James Madison, Tulane visiting Ole Miss and Miami taking on Texas A&M.
Indiana, the lone undefeated team through the regular season, enters this bracket as the No. 1 seed and Big Ten conference champion. The Hoosiers will face the winner of Alabama vs. Oklahoma, which the SportsLine Projection Model says will be the Sooners. They win in 53% of simulations. No. 2 Ohio State will face the winner of Texas A&M vs. Miami, while No. 3 Georgia will take on the winner of Ole Miss vs. Tulane. The winner of Oregon vs. James Madison faces No. 4 Texas Tech.
We'll take a look at the 2025-26 CFP from a betting perspective and break down the first-round games, potential quarterfinal matchups and national championship odds.
CFP first round matchups
Despite being the road team and having a head-to-head loss from the regular season, the Tide are only 1.5-point underdogs in this game. Quarterback Ty Simpson, who was in contention to be the No. 1 overall pick in the 2026 NFL Draft, will need to be on point against a stiff Oklahoma defense. The Sooners rank ninth in total defense and seventh in scoring defense, so Simpson and the Tide have their work cut out for them. On the other side of the ball, John Mateer was a Heisman frontrunner at one point before suffering a hand injury. He's looked better as he got more reps since returning, but Oklahoma's offense has still been sluggish in key moments. Mateer has six touchdowns and seven interceptions since returning from the hand injury. Can he solve Alabama's defense, which has allowed just 17.4 points per game this season?
Arguably the most high-profile game of the first round takes place on Saturday at noon ET with the Aggies hosting the Hurricanes. Miami was a controversial team in the committee's rankings, lagging behind Notre Dame before magically leapfrogging the Irish on the final selection day when it became clear the ACC would have no representative if Miami didn't make the field. The Hurricanes have a talented defense led by Rueben Bain Jr., but their ability to stay in this game will be squarely on the arm of Carson Beck. Beck struggled with interceptions early in the year but threw just one over his final four games while tossing 11 touchdowns. The Aggies have slipped slightly defensively, but they are actually allowing slightly fewer points per game this year compared to last year. Marcel Reed, who was a Heisman darkhorse late in the year, will look to recover from a poor performance against Texas which cost the Aggies a spot in the SEC Championship Game and potentially a first-round bye. Reed has made key plays when it matters, but Miami's defense will present an interesting challenge. The Hurricanes rank sixth in scoring defense.
Ole Miss and Tulane played in the regular season with the Rebels winning 45-10. However, this rematch has plenty of buzz with Tulane's Jon Sumrall set to take over at Florida and Lane Kiffin already leaving Ole Miss for rival LSU. Defensive coordinator Pete Goulding has been elevated to the head coaching job for the Rebels, and a lot of assistant coaches have come back to be around the team for the playoff. It's an interesting dynamic, though ultimately the talent gap should favor Ole Miss. The Rebels are 17.5-point favorites in the latest Tulane vs. Ole Miss odds, and the SportsLine model has them covering that spread in 55% of simulations.
James Madison is another heavy Group of Five underdog in the first round, but the Dukes will gladly take the national exposure as they get set to replace Bob Chesney with Billy Napier at head coach. Oregon is a massive 21.5-point favorite in the latest SportsLine consensus odds, and Dan Lanning has a penchant for running up the score on his opponents, especially in Eugene. The SportsLine model is backing James Madison, though, as the Dukes cover the spread in 57% of simulations.
CFP second round matchups
Top sportsbooks will post lookahead lines for matchups in the second round and also offer futures betting on teams to make the semifinal. For example, Ohio State is a 9.5-point favorite over Miami at FanDuel in a hypothetical second round game while being an 8.5-point favorite over Texas A&M. Indiana is a 9.5-point favorite over Oklahoma should the Sooners advance but only a 6.5-point favorite in a potential matchup against Alabama.
The Red Raiders are listed as slight 1.5-point favorites over the Ducks, and there's no lookahead line for a potential Texas Tech vs. James Madison game. The same applies for Georgia vs. Tulane, as FanDuel has the Bulldogs as 5.5-point favorites over Ole Miss in that potential second-round game.
Indiana and Ohio State are heavy favorites to advance to the semifinal, priced at -320 and -300 respectively at DraftKings. Georgia is -225 to advance while Texas Tech is -125. Oregon, only a 1.5-point underdog in the lookahead line above, is -105 at DraftKings to make the semifinal. Ole Miss is +175 and Texas A&M is +360. Even though Alabama is an underdog against Oklahoma, the Crimson Tide (+425) are significantly ahead of Miami (+600) and Oklahoma (+650) when it comes to reaching the semifinal. Tulane (+4000) and James Madison (+5500) are huge longshots.
CFP national championship odds
Ohio State is the +225 favorite to repeat as a national champion at BetMGM, while Indiana is right behind the Buckeyes at +275. Georgia, which won back-to-back national titles in 2021 and 2022, is +500 to lift a third trophy under Kirby Smart. Oregon, despite being a slight underdog in a hypothetical matchup with Texas Tech, is +800 to win it all. Texas Tech is right behind the Ducks at +900.
There's a big drop here in the odds table with Texas A&M checking in next at +1700, followed by Miami (+2200), Alabama (+2500) and Ole Miss (+2500). There's another gap here with Oklahoma coming in at +5000 before we get to the real longshots with Tulane and James Madison both priced at +50000.
Ohio State and Indiana did not meet in the regular season but did play in a hard-fought Big Ten title game which went to the Hoosiers 13-10. The oddsmakers are expecting a rematch, and it seems like the betting public hasn't done much to sway the lines so far. There have only been two recent instances of teams meeting in the regular season or conference championship game facing each other again in the national title game, and both involved Alabama. The Crimson Tide defeated LSU in the 2012 BCS Championship Game after losing to the Tigers in the regular season. Alabama beat Georgia in the SEC title game in 2021 before losing to the Bulldogs in the 2022 National Championship Game.
