Group of Five schools belong in the College Football Playoff, but a modern Cinderella is unlikely

A mere mention of the term "Group of Five" makes certain sects of the college football fandom flare up. There is a seemingly eternal debate -- especially around the College Football Playoff -- surrounding whether Group of Five programs deserve the same level of access as their Power Four counterparts. 

The arguments can become impassioned and are often the source of long chains of back-and-forth on social media. Make no mistake: this writer stands firmly on the side that the Group of Five needs some sort of representation in the College Football Playoff. Anything less would completely delegitimize over half the schools in the FBS. 

Thanks to some ACC shenanigans, an unprecedented two Group of Five squads made the 12-team field. No. 11 Tulane suffered a 41-10 loss to No. 6 Ole Miss and No. 12 James Madison put up a good fight in a 51-34 road defeat at the hands of No. 5 Oregon. The Dukes did fall behind 34-6 late in the second quarter. 

Neither Tulane nor James Madison performed terribly, even if the final scores tell a different story. The Green Wave moved the ball well offensively -- they had 421 yards of total offense to Ole Miss' 497 -- but several back-breaking mistakes prevented them from capitalizing. James Madison could have rolled over after digging itself into a deep hole early. Instead, the Dukes outscored Oregon, which kept its first team on the field for a majority of the game, 28-17 in the second half. 

Moral victories don't count for much in a single-elimination format. Unfortunately for the Group of Five, moral victories are the closest it will get to College Football Playoff success. Modern college football isn't built to support Cinderellas. 

In a bygone era, plenty of Group of Five teams -- or those at an equivalent level -- had meaningful wins at the highest level of the sport. Utah, when it played in the Mountain West Conference under Urban Meyer and Kyle Whittingham, was a mainstay on the New Year's Six scene. The 2008 Utes, notably, went 13-0 and trounced Nick Saban's Alabama in the Sugar Bowl. 

BYU was a national powerhouse in the Western Athletic Conference with coach LaVell Edwards leading the way. The Cougars won a national title in 1984 and finished No. 5 in the 1996 AP Top 25 after beating Kansas State in the Cotton Bowl. 

Boise State won two Fiesta Bowls from 2006-09. More recent examples include 2017 UCF, that year's national champion according to the Colley Matrix (and its own standards), and 2021 Cincinnati, the only Group of Five team to make the four-team College Football Playoff. 

Blame the College Football Playoff system for uneven fields? No, blame the powers who've upended the sport

Tom Fornelli

Is it impossible for Group of Five teams to make a splash since the turn of the decade? Not necessarily. Tulane, in 2022, downed a mostly full-strength USC led by Heisman Trophy-winning quarterback Caleb Williams in the Cotton Bowl. 

But those Green Wave are the exception. So, what happened to prevent the "little guy" from frequently rising past its station. 

There's more than one answer to that question. The transfer portal is an obvious culprit. Since the NCAA overhauled its transfer rules and allowed players to profit off of their name, image and likeness, the Group of Five has been used as an ersatz developmental league for high-profile schools. 

Meaning, the moment that a Group of Five player shows out, a Power Four program swoops in and poaches them. It's almost unheard of for a Group of Five star to stay at their school in that position. 

It isn't hard to blame them. The transfer portal offers a path to more money, and it also gives top players an opportunity to move to a bigger stage where they'll be more exposed to NFL scouts and general managers. Take North Texas quarterback Drew Mestemaker, for example. He led the FBS with 4,129 yards passing and tied for second nationally with 31 touchdowns this season. 

If he did that at a Power Four program, he would have won the Heisman Trophy. Mestemaker is expected to enter the transfer portal following North Texas' Dec. 27 New Mexico Bowl clash with San Diego State. 

The brain drain of top players further widens the talent gap between the Power Four and the Group of Five. Conference realignment isn't blameless. 

Utah, UCF, BYU and Cincinnati are all in the Big 12 now. As with players, the moment a Group of Five program stands out, it immediately becomes a target for expansion. 

Coach retention is an issue. Both of those Group of Five coaches that made the playoff this season -- Tulane's Jon Sumrall and James Madison's Bob Chesney -- are leaving to fill Power Four vacancies. Sumrall is headed to Florida while Chesney will try his hand at reviving UCLA. 

Both Tulane and James Madison will be on their third coach since the start of the 2023 season. Six Group of Five coaches left for Power Four openings while the 2025-26 coaching carousel was spinning. That kind of churn is hard for any program to overcome, let alone one that doesn't have access to Power Four-level resources. 

Expanding the College Football Playoff field won't fix this issue. College football's postseason isn't March Madness, where a smaller team can get hot while making an inspiring run deep into the tournament. 

There's no fairytale. It's the reality that Group of Five teams face in this era of college football.