Indiana entered the 2024 season rebooting under new coach Curt Cignetti after a 3-9 year and with just seven total victories over the three prior seasons. Merely making a bowl game would have been regarded as a smashing success.
No one expected a College Football Playoff run (except maybe Cignetti himself). But as Indiana kept stacking victories with an 11-1 regular season, its dark-horse CFP candidacy became impossible to ignore. The Hoosiers made their historic breakthrough as the No. 10 seed in the first-ever 12-team CFP, but fell 27-17 to Notre Dame in the first round.
The dark-horse Hoosiers of 2024 laid the groundwork for the 2025 team's perfect season. A month into the 2026 season, it's time to start paying attention to who the dark-horse contenders are this time around. Among the 10 identified here are five teams with first-year coaches.
As Cignetti showed in 2024, rebuilding a team doesn't have to take years. Even long-dormant programs can ascend quickly in the mass-transfer era. That's what we are seeing with Florida, UCLA and others who are off to strong starts in 2026 after being ranked outside the top 20 to begin the season.
Here is our rundown of this year's top dark-horse contenders to reach the CFP.
Preseason rankings reflect where teams stood in the CBS Sports 138 entering Week 1. Odds to make the CFP are from DraftKings.
Florida
Preseason ranking: 22
Odds to make CFP: -156
Florida entered the 2026 season 29-34 over the past five years and rebooting with its fifth new coach since Urban Meyer. It didn't take long for Jon Sumrall to lead the Gators out of the wilderness.
Behind a 4-0 start highlighted by a Week 4 demolition of No. 9 Ole Miss, Florida is surging up the odds sheet ahead of this week's trip to No. 25 Missouri. It will be the beginning of a massive October, which includes a trip to No. 1 Texas (Oct. 17) and a neutral-site showdown with No. 2 Georgia (Oct. 31).
Utah
Preseason ranking: 24
Odds to make CFP: +200
The coaching transition from Kyle Whittingham to Morgan Scalley wasn't seamless, as Whittingham took staff and players with him to Michigan. But the Utes haven't skipped a beat so far.
They get a home game against rival BYU (Nov. 7) and don't play No. 12 Texas Tech. Outside of a 12-0 regular season, Utah might need to win the Big 12 Championship in order to reach the CFP, but that feels like a more attainable goal than it did before the season.
James Madison
Preseason ranking: 78
Odds to make CFP: +400
New coach, no problem. That's the vibe at James Madison, which replaced Curt CIgnetti with Bob Chesney, who led the Dukes to the CFP last year in his second season. With Chesney off to UCLA, James Madison hired failed Florida coach Billy Napier.
While the label of "Sun Belt Billy" came with derision when he was in Gainesville, James Madison supporters certainly have no problem with it. Napier posted a 40-12 (27-5 Sun Belt) mark at Louisiana from 2018-21, and he has shown he hasn't forgotten how to coach at Florida. The Dukes are off to a 4-0 start that includes a win over Liberty and convincing road victories over San Diego State and Old Dominion.
Mississippi State
Preseason ranking: 51
Odds to make CFP: +410
Mississippi State is the epitome of a dark horse after a 4-0 start that includes convincing road wins over Minnesota and South Carolina, followed by a Week 4 win over ranked Missouri.
Now comes the ultimate test as No. 7 Alabama comes to town for a Week 5 quarterback showdown between Mississippi State's Kamario Taylor and Alabama's Keelon Russell.
If the Bulldogs pull it off, the excitement in Starkville could match what the program experienced in 2014, when Dak Prescott led the Bullies to their only No. 1 ranking in program history.
Iowa
Preseason ranking: 21
Odds to make CFP: +450
On the heels of a last-second win at Michigan, this week's visit from No. 5 Ohio State for a seismic Big Ten clash on CBS offers a chance for Iowa to replicate vibes that haven't been felt since 2021.
The Hawkeyes spent seven weeks in the top 10 that year and would almost certainly return for the first time since with an upset of the Buckeyes.
Even if Iowa falters, there are zero games against ranked opposition remaining on the schedule. Is this team good enough to run the table? Would a poor strength of schedule keep the Hawkeyes out of the CFP at 10-2? The fact that we're asking the questions is a good thing for Iowa.
UCLA
Preseason ranking: 42
Odds to make CFP: +500
UCLA surpassed its 2025 win total in the season's first month under first-year coach Bob Chesney.
The Bruins already own three victories of 14-plus points against power conference opposition, including a 54-3 road beatdown of Maryland on the road.
After a bye in Week 5, UCLA gets a crack at Oregon on the road. Even if the Bruins don't upset the Ducks, they will still have a viable path to CFP consideration against a manageable Big Ten slate.
North Dakota State
Preseason ranking: 73
Odds to make CFP: +550
At 4-0 (1-0 Mountain West), North Dakota State is off to a strong start in its first season at the FBS level. The Bison are tied for 11th nationally in scoring defense and tied for third with a +8 turnover margin.
Success is part of this program's DNA, which won 10 FCS national titles from 2011 to 2024.
James Madison and others have proven that FCS powers don't need a long runway to achieve real FBS success, and the Bison are already in the mix to be the Group of Six's CFP representative.
UTSA
Preseason ranking: 63
Odds to make CFP: +1000
UTSA's wins over Texas State and Colorado State, and its relatively competitive showing in a loss at No. 1 Texas, confirm that this team will be a serious player in the American.
Jeff Traylor has become something of a forgotten man in his seventh year after consecutive 7-6 seasons left UTSA behind programs like Memphis, South Florida and Tulane in the league's pecking order. But each of those schools are rebooting under new coaches while UTSA has a productive veteran QB in Cade McCown and a coach who previously led the Roadrunners to 23 wins in a 2-year span (2021 and 2022).
Oklahoma State
Preseason ranking: 44
Odds to make CFP: +1200
Oklahoma State's Week 1 loss at Tulsa will be a drag on the Cowboys' at-large candidacy, but the Cowboys must be regarded as serious Big 12 title contenders.
After upsetting Oregon and then racking up 609 yards in a Week 4 win at West Virginia, the Cowboys look fully capable of beating anyone on their schedule. First-year coach Eric Morris has reenergized Oklahoma State with an explosive offense that fits the program perfectly.
Nebraska
Preseason ranking: 33
Odds to make CFP: +1450
The vision is tough to conceptualize because the Cornhuskers haven't reached 10 wins in a season since 2012 and have been prematurely labeled as "back" numerous times since. But after opening Big Ten play with a 31-13 win at Michigan State, this team is worth monitoring.
Nebraska must play four top-15 teams during its league slate. However, that's a good thing, because it would give them a case for inclusion at 10-2. If the Cornhuskers go 2-2 against Indiana, Oregon, Ohio State and Iowa and take care of business elsewhere, they will be in good shape. It's a high bar to clear but not impossible for a team that sits at No. 19 in Brandon Marcello's Power Rankings.
