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Many teams would be virtually eliminated from the College Football Playoff once suffering their third loss, but Texas, led by Arch Manning, isn't your typical three-loss team, and they could still have a pathway toward making the 2025 College Football Playoff. The latest version of the 2025 College Football Playoff rankings was released on Tuesday, and Texas dropped from No. 10 to No. 17. The Longhorns host Arkansas at 3:30 p.m. ET on Saturday, and Texas will need to win out and have some luck on its side to make the CFP. The SportsLine advance projection model projects Texas to cover as 8.5-point favorites as one of its best bets to build a College Football Playoff contender parlay at FanDuel Sportsbook. The Week 13 college football schedule also includes a key matchup with CFP implications that the model projects value in for college football betting. The model is backing Over 59.5 total points for No. 15 USC vs. No. 7 Oregon at 3:30 p.m. ET on CBS, as well as Cincinnati to upset No. 11 BYU at +114 odds to complete its Week 13 College Football Playoff contender parlay at FanDuel. 

The  SportsLine Projection Model simulates every FBS game 10,000 times, and it is profitable on its top-rated money-line and over/under picks since the beginning of the 2024 season. Anybody following those college football betting picks at sportsbooks and on betting sites could have seen strong returns.

Three College Football Playoff contender betting picks for Saturday (odds subject to change): 

  • USC vs. Oregon: Over 59.5 total points
  • Texas (-8.5) vs. Arkansas
  • Cincinnati (+114) to defeat BYU 

Combining the model's three picks into a College Football Playoff contender parlay at FanDuel would result in a payout of +679 (risk $100 to win $679).

USC vs. Oregon: Over 59.5 total points (-110, FanDuel)

No. 15 USC and No. 7 Oregon have taken their West Coast rivalry into the Big Ten, and one thing that hasn't changed with conference realignment is their continued ability to produce elite offenses. USC is eighth in the nation in scoring at 38.2 ppg this season, while Oregon is 11th at 36.8 ppg. These two teams have combined for at least 60 points in each of their last eight regular-season meetings, and that's a trend the model expects to continue on Saturday. Quarterback Jayden Maiava has USC ranked eighth in passing offense (298.1 yards per game) and fourth in yards per pass (9.4) this season, while the rushing attack is ninth in the nation at 5.6 yards per rush. Meanwhile, Oregon is the No. 1 most efficient rushing offense, averaging 6.3 yards per carry while ranking eighth in rushing yards per game at 231.4 yards with a balanced rushing attack. The model expects plenty of scoring yet again, projecting the Over to hit in 58% of simulations for a 3:30 p.m. ET matchup on CBS and Paramount+. 

Texas (-8.5) vs. Arkansas (-110, FanDuel)

The Longhorns' CFP chances took a significant hit after losing their third game of the season and falling to Georgia, 35-10, but it's not enough to say they are completely out of the race yet. Arch Manning has shown signs of improvement, throwing for more than 250 yards in three straight games, including two performances with more than 325 passing yards. No. 17 Texas hasn't lost back-to-back games this season, and in a truly must-win, the model doesn't expect that to change. Texas is 7-3 (4-2 SEC), while Arkansas is 2-8 (0-6 SEC), and with Texas home on Saturday, the model projects the Longhorns to cover the spread in 69% of simulations.

Cincinnati to defeat BYU (+114, FanDuel)

This is a crucial matchup on both sides with BYU at 9-1 overall and 6-1 in the Big 12, while Cincinnati is 7-3 overall and 5-2 in the Big 12. Cincinnati has dropped back-to-back contests to see its ranking and CFP chances plummet, but the Bearcats aren't completely out yet. BYU rebounded from its 29-7 loss to No. 8 Texas Tech with a 44-13 win over TCU last week. The Bearcats reached as high as No. 17 in the nation this year, and they are 5-1 at home this season as they prepare to host No. 11 BYU. Cincinnati is averaging 37.8 ppg at home this season, and the model projects another strong showing on their home field for the Bearcats, projecting an upset in 55% of simulations to showcase strong value at plus-money odds.