Three weeks ago, this College Football Playoff prognosticator surveyed the upcoming schedule and saw two paths forming.
"Clarity is coming," I wrote, "Or maybe it's more confusion."
Door Number Two is where we stand days before the calendar turns to November. The last two weeks have brought big upsets and little clarity around which teams are legitimately good.
The SEC, in particular, has turned into a confusing mess for the selection committee to sort through ahead of the group's first rankings next week. Just look at the Associated Press top 25 this week -- the SEC has No. 3 Georgia and then four teams ranked from No. 9 to No. 12 and the three teams ranked from No. 15 to No. 17. The conference has already turned into a demolition derby as top players have gone down with injuries and upsets lurk just around the corner at any given moment.
The SEC is still well-positioned to get four teams into the playoff, but brace yourself for lots of debates around the merits of three-loss SEC teams versus two-loss teams in other conferences. If the new strength-of-conference metric is given serious consideration, it should benefit the SEC. Likely range of SEC playoff teams: 3 to 5
There is more clarity in the Big Ten, which again looks top-heavy. Ohio State and Indiana are very likely to make the 12-team College Football Playoff. Undefeated UCLA is too if it can win 11 or 12 games. After the Bruins, however, there aren't many obvious playoff contenders. Three-loss Oregon, which just fired offensive coordinator Drew Mehringer, is all but out of the race with 5% odds. The only other teams with better than 10% odds are Northwestern (15.8%) and Nebraska (12.4%), and each is unlikely unless it upsets Ohio State. USC and Iowa have both faded hard from early playoff contention. Likely range of Big Ten playoff teams: 2 to 3
The ACC may again be only a one-bid league (Miami) unless Wake Forest sneaks in. The 6-1 Demon Deacons are one of the first teams out of this week's projection. If Wake Forest wins out, however, which would include a victory over SMU, it'll be in the field. Speaking of SMU, the Mustangs are a dark-horse playoff contender because their remaining schedule (Notre Dame, Wake Forest) offers multiple marquee-win opportunities. Likely range of ACC playoff teams: 1 to 2
The Big 12 bolstered its hopes for multiple bids when BYU beat Notre Dame, only for major upsets to upend those hopes last weekend. BYU and Texas Tech both losing to unranked opponents dampens the conference's ability to put two or more teams into the field. For now, Utah and BYU have strong enough resumes to be included, but don't be surprised to see weak strength-of-schedule -- No. 72 for BYU, No. 87 for Utah -- come up in future debates. Likely range of Big 12 playoff teams: 1 to 2
No. 1 Miami 7-0 (ACC champion)
The Hurricanes made it look easy in a 52-23 win over Pittsburgh on Saturday. The biggest question around Miami isn't whether it'll make the playoff -- it is a near lock with 98.2% odds -- but whether quarterback Darian Mensah or receiver Malachi Toney is the more deserving Heisman Trophy candidate. Previous: 1
No. 2 Georgia 6-1 (SEC champion)
As Kirby Smart accurately forecasted after his team's win over Alabama, "Humility is a week away as we saw today." His Bulldogs experienced it the following week in a shocking home loss to Auburn. With a bye week to recuperate a banged-up team, Georgia should look better in an important game Saturday against Florida. Previous: 3
No. 3 Ohio State 6-1 (Big Ten champion)
The Buckeyes' ceiling looks a little lower with starting quarterback Julian Sayin out indefinitely. The good news for Ohio State is its next two games look less challenging than they did at the beginning of the season. OSU gets two struggling programs, USC and Oregon, up next, which look like wins even with backup quarterback Luke Fahey expected to start. Previous: 2
No. 4 Utah 7-0 (Big 12 champion)
Utah is now in the driver's seat of the Big 12 after a win over Houston. This weekend Utah gets a hot Cincinnati team coming off a win over Texas Tech. It only gets harder from there with a rivalry game against BYU on Nov. 7 and then a road trip to a ranked Arizona team. Previous: NR
No. 5 Indiana 7-1
Indiana survived an ugly 13-6 win over Michigan, in which Curt Cignetti admitted afterward he considered benching banged-up quarterback Josh Hoover. After Hoover's 8-for-18 performance for 81 passing yards and an interception, one can't blame Cignetti for thinking about it. Indiana hasn't looked great offensively all season, if we're being honest, but a 7-1 record has the Hoosiers in a strong position (94.8% odds) to make the playoff. Previous: 6
No. 6 UCLA 7-0
Fans need to start accepting the possibility of a 12-0 UCLA team. Our CBS Sports forecasting model is still skeptical of the Bruins -- it gives UCLA the 13th-best playoff odds at 37.1% -- but the reality is UCLA should be 10-0 headed into a road trip to Michigan. With the way UCLA's defense has been playing and how Michigan's offense has been scuffling, why can't the Bruins win that one? Previous: 8
No. 7 BYU 6-1
The Cougars fall three spots this week after a double-overtime loss to UCF. A week after benefitting from a controversial call in a win over Notre Dame, BYU got the raw end of a questionable roughing-the-kicker penalty. The unexpected loss to UCF dropped BYU's playoff odds to 45% with the Holy War against Utah still to come. A loss to Utah could put a two-loss BYU team in serious jeopardy of being left out in favor of a three-loss SEC team. Previous: 4
No. 8 Kentucky 7-1
As chaos unfolds all around the SEC, Kentucky deserves credit for winning the games it should, as it did against Vanderbilt. Kentucky is idle this week ahead of a huge game against Tennessee on Nov. 7. There isn't an easy game left on the Wildcats' schedule, but count out Will Stein's ability to win close games at your own peril. Previous: 10
No. 9 Notre Dame 6-1
The Fighting Irish's loss to BYU looks a little worse today after the Cougars' loss over the weekend. Ultimately, Notre Dame's playoff hopes come down to two games: Miami and SMU. This projection is banking on ND splitting those two games. If the Irish win both, they'll be in the top four. If they lose both, they'll be out. Previous: 11
No. 10 Texas 5-2
Just when it looks like Texas is out, they pull you back in. Texas now has two of the best wins of the season, especially that Week 2 win over Ohio State, and can survive its back-to-back losses to Oklahoma and Florida. The Longhorns now have 49% odds of making the field, but a very challenging remaining schedule presents multiple potential roadblocks. Still to come for Texas: Mississippi State, at Missouri, at LSU, Arkansas and Texas A&M. Previous: NR
No. 11 Ole Miss 5-2
The Rebels tumbled down the rankings to the final CFP spot after losing on the road to Texas. Ole Miss has a couple of quality wins (LSU, Missouri) but not much wiggle room to remain in the field. The most interesting scenario is whether a 9-3 Ole Miss team, assuming a loss to Georgia on Nov. 7, will make it in. For now, the Rebels get the benefit of the doubt, in part because of their strength of schedule and record, both of which rank among the top 10 nationally. Previous: 5
No. 12 Boise State 6-1
Boise State's top competition for the Group of Six spot, James Madison, lost last weekend, which bolstered the Broncos' playoff hopes. If Boise State wins out, it's in. Previous: 12
Just missed the cut: LSU, Alabama, Wake Forest, Texas Tech and Tennessee
First round
Dec. 18-19 at higher seeds
No. 12 Boise State at No. 5 Indiana
No. 11 Ole Miss at No. 6 UCLA
No. 10 Texas at No. 7 BYU
No. 9 Notre Dame at No. 8 Kentucky
Quarterfinal matchups
Dec. 30 in Glendale, Ariz., Jan. 1 in Atlanta, Arlington, Texas, and Pasadena, Calif.
No. 1 Miami vs. No. 8 Kentucky/No. 9 Notre Dame winner
No. 2 Georgia vs. No. 7 BYU/No. 10 Texas winner
No. 3 Ohio State vs. No. 6 UCLA/No. 11 Ole Miss winner
No. 4 Utah vs. No. 5 Indiana/No. 12 Boise State winner
Semifinal matchups
Jan. 14 in Miami and Jan. 15 in New Orleans
No. 1 Miami/ No. 8 Kentucky/No. 9 Notre Dame winner vs. No. 4 Utah/No. 5 Indiana/No. 12 Boise State
No. 2 Georgia/No. 7 BYU/No. 10 Texas winner vs. No. 3 Ohio State/No. 6 UCLA/No. 11 Ole Miss winner
