Bowl projections: Notre Dame, Oregon flex for College Football Playoff committee, Miami stays on bubble

If you wanted to see College Football Playoff chaos down the stretch this season, you're going to get it during rivalry weekend after a few unexpected ripples in Week 13. Oregon and Notre Dame's impressive wins over USC and Syracuse have stamped playoff resumes with one more victory for each, but it was Pittsburgh's victory at Georgia Tech that clouds our updated playoff projection and full list of bowl games.

Miami, as the committee's highest-ranked ACC team last week, was eliminated from reaching the league title game after SMU steamrolled Louisville and Duke toppled North Carolina. Now, Pat Narduzzi's Panthers have kickstarted a possible doomsday scenario for a conference that could be excluded from the playoff altogether in two weeks.

If Group of Five hopefuls James Madison (10-1) and Tulane (9-2) each win the Sun Belt and American, respectively, it could set up a scenario that includes both teams getting to the playoff and the ACC champion -- either Pittsburgh, SMU or Virginia -- staying home.

Miami remains on the bubble and needs multiple losses over the holiday weekend from Alabama, Oklahoma and Notre Dame to punch its ticket.

Out of breath yet from following all these scenarios? Here's a glance at how we see the final 12-team CFP bracket unfolding in early December coming out of Week 13:

College Football Playoff 

Quarterfinals 

First round

Don't see your team? Check out Brad Crawford's complete bowl projections.

Projected College Football Playoff Field breakdown

1. Ohio State (projected Big Ten champion): Despite being without wideouts Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate, the Buckeys had no issues with Rutgers, and now comes the matchup we've all been waiting for next week at Michigan. We're assuming Ohio State snaps the streak, wins a close one against Indiana in the Big Ten title game and earns the top seed.

2. Texas A&M (projected SEC champion): Texas A&M could've easily went through the motions against Samford, but it didn't happen. The Aggies played with precision and now get Arch Manning and the Longhorns next week en route to an appearance in the SEC Championship Game. Texas A&M's a playoff team, but a loss to Longhorns may take the Aggies away from being a top-four seed. We're not expecting it, though.

3. Indiana: Curt Cignetti's team has been ranked in the two-hole for several weeks, and the only way that will change is if the Aggies take the SEC without a blemish. There would be no griping from the Hoosiers, however. They've essentially locked up a first-round bye and potentially favorable path to a semifinal appearance.

4. Georgia: The Bulldogs held serve against Charlotte with Georgia Tech looming, and they're going to get an angry Yellow Jackets team whose season was hindered by Pittsburgh. Georgia looks like a legitimate national championship contender in November and is turning the corner on the defensive side of the football after some early frustrations.

5. Texas Tech (projected Big 12 champion): Two more wins and the Red Raiders will receive, at worst, a first-round home game against the Group of Five champion in the playoff as the No. 5 seed. That could perhaps elevate to a bye if they're able to win convincingly in the conference championship game or get a loss from Georgia against Georgia Tech.

6. Oregon: The Ducks squashed any outside hopes for USC to reach the 12-team bracket with a ranked win at home, and in the process, moved closer to another game at Autzen Stadium next month. They'll need to beat Washington next week to ensure that happens, and if the Ducks get help from Michigan, Oregon gets a chance to retain its crown as Big Ten champion.

7. Oklahoma: From being on the outside looking in earlier this month to now flexing a top-seven seed if they're able to beat LSU in the finale, the Sooners' defensive-driven victory over 22nd-ranked Missouri included a head-turning effort at the line of scrimmage. Oklahoma held Ahmad Hardy, the SEC's leading rusher and Doak Walker frontrunner, to just 57 yards on 17 carries after his 300-yard explosion the previous week.

8. Notre Dame: There's a chance the Fighting Irish could get the final important seed at No. 8 in this spot with one final blowout victory to end the season following Saturday's win over Syracuse. Notre Dame led 21-0 before taking an offensive snap in the matchup. That was their ninth straight win since losses to Miami and Texas A&M to open, and right now, the committee still has not factored in the head-to-head loss to the Hurricanes since they're so far behind Notre Dame in the current rankings. Essentially, Notre Dame's in a different tier, comparatively.

9. Ole Miss: What will the committee do with the Rebels if they finish with 11 wins and enter the playoff without Lane Kiffin next month? One source told CBS Sports this week there's no "nuclear Florida State scenario" on the table if Kiffin bolts for LSU unless Ole Miss loses both coordinators as well. We're expecting a seeding alteration and Ole Miss potentially losing a home-game chance in the opening round. Now, a loss in the Egg Bowl against Mississippi State on Friday would complicate this equation.

10. Alabama: Unless the Crimson Tide beat Texas A&M in the SEC Championship Game on Dec. 6, this is where Alabama will set at 10-3 overall entering the playoff with a win over Auburn in the Iron Bowl next week. A six-spot slide following the home loss to Oklahoma cost the Crimson Tide a home-game opportunity in the first round, a luxury they could get back by winning the conference by winning out from here.

11. SMU (projected ACC champion): Following Pittsburgh's win at Georgia Tech, the ACC race will come down to the final weekend to determine the two participants in the conference championship game. If the Panthers beat Miami, they'll play in Charlotte against Virginia if the Cavaliers beat Virginia Tech. If Miami beats Pittsburgh, SMU will play Virginia in the finale. There's also a scenario in which two Group of Five champions make the 12-team bracket and a three-loss SMU, as the ACC champion, is left out. The overtime win over Miami looms large right now.

12. North Texas (projected Group of Five champion): Tulane was the committee's highest-ranked team this week and designated as the projected 12-seed in the bracket, however, we're picking the Mean Green -- after their win over Rice on Saturday night -- to win the American in two weeks and get the bid over James Madison.