CFP Traffic Report: Where every Power Four team stands entering Week 9 of season

COLLEGE FOOTBALL: OCT 17 Louisville at Miami

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With nine AP Top 25 teams losing in a wild Week 8, the path to the College Football Playoff remains chaotic. Few elite teams are separating themselves from the pack, while for others, the road is closing fast as losses pile up. Every misstep matters and margin for error is vanishing quickly for those that entered the 2025 season with hopes of postseason contention -- including Miami, whose loss to Louisville has thrown the Hurricanes' CFP chances into the fast lane of potential uncertainty.

Only Ohio State and Indiana are nearing lock status for a CFP spot, while surging Alabama is staking a strong claim with its six-game win streak. The SEC remains deep, with more than half the league still holding a realistic path to a playoff bid. How many spots will the ACC or Big 12 get as top contenders continue to beat each other up?

There's also renewed focus on Notre Dame, which continues to see its chances of an at-large bid increase. Whether the Fighting Irish can avoid another loss could determine if the Big Ten or SEC gets an additional spot in the playoff.

So, which Power Four teams are clearing traffic and which are stuck in a jam as the final stretch begins? This fifth edition of the College Football Playoff Traffic Report gives an updated snapshot of where each Power Four team stands on the road to the playoff, organized by tiers:

🚀 On cruise control
🟢 In the driver's seat
🟡 Bumper-to-bumper
🔴 Sitting on the shoulder
⛔ Out of the race

The latest report identifies 25 teams most likely to make the CFP, highlighting those still in contention while flagging programs running low on margin for error -- or already off the playoff path.

Let's take a look at the road to the CFP ahead of Week 9.

CBS Sports 136: Texas A&M, Alabama rise into top five amid shakeup in college football rankings

Chip Patterson

🚀 On cruise control

Look elite, have a clear path and have a lot of margin for error

No. 1 Ohio State (7-0): The Buckeyes haven't faced much resistance so far in Big Ten play, and quarterback Julian Sayin looks more and more like a Heisman Trophy contender each week. Ohio State heads into a bye week before the final stretch, with a road trip to Michigan standing as the only real obstacle in its path of an undefeated regular season.

No. 2 Indiana (7-0): There won't be any distractions about Curt Cignetti's future now that he's locked in with a new massive contract, allowing full focus on a potential return to the CFP. While resurgent UCLA shouldn't be overlooked, the five remaining Big Ten opponents on Indiana's schedule are a combined 14-21 (.400), giving the Hoosiers a clear runway toward another postseason push.

No. 4 Alabama (6-1): The Crimson Tide sit in a much more comfortable position now than they did a month ago. Alabama rolled through a gauntlet of four straight AP Top 25 opponents and look like the front-runner in the SEC. Kalen DeBoer has quieted any early-season doubters, and with one of the league's softest remaining schedules, the Tide are firmly back in control of their CFP destiny.

No. 3 Texas A&M (7-0): The Aggies are one of just five remaining undefeated Power Four teams but face the toughest closing stretch of that group, with each of their final three road games coming against current AP Top 25 opponents. Texas A&M has been tested on the road, winning its only two trips by a combined four points. Still, Mike Elko and Co. look every bit in control of its CFP path, leaning on an elite defensive front to stay in the CFP hunt.

🟢 In the driver's seat

Control their path, but still vulnerable -- one or two unexpected hiccups could matter

No. 5 Georgia (6-1): At some point, it feels like the Bulldogs' second-half heroics are living on borrowed time. The win against Ole Miss marked the third time in five SEC games that Georgia has erased at least a touchdown deficit after halftime. While it keeps finding ways to respond under pressure, there's certainly some vulnerability if those slow starts continue against top-tier competition.

No. 6 Oregon (6-1): It was obvious the Ducks played with some pent-up frustration at Rutgers, just a week removed from their first loss of the season to Indiana. Oregon showed its still an elite outfit. There's little resistance left on the schedule with no current AP Top 25 teams remaining, but road trips to Iowa and rival Washington still carry trap-game potential.

No. 12 Notre Dame (5-2): The Fighting Irish have been in must-win mode since mid-September after opening the season with consecutive losses. They delivered in the pouring rain against rival USC, likely their only remaining chance to notch a ranked win and keep their CFP hopes alive -- which isn't good for any others hoping to get an at-large bid.

No. 7 Georgia Tech (7-0): Raise your hand if you had Georgia Tech as the last remaining unbeaten ACC team at the start of the season. (No, you didn't.) The Yellow Jackets still have company atop the conference standings, but their remaining league opponents are just 5-10 (.333) in ACC play. If Brent Key's group can avoid a slip-up, that regular-season finale against Georgia could decide far more than just Clean, Old-Fashioned Hate.

No. 11 BYU (7-0): All that preseason hype surrounding Texas Tech and Utah, and now it's BYU that controls its own destiny for a spot in the CFP. But the Cougars will have to prove it the hard way, with their next four opponents -- at Iowa State, at Texas Tech, TCU and at Cincinnati -- all sitting at 5-2 or better. It's the second toughest stretch left for any unbeaten team in the country.

No. 13 Oklahoma (6-1): The Sooners face one of, if not the toughest closing stretches in the country. Each of their last five opponents ranks in the current AP Top 25, leaving little room for error. Oklahoma found its lost run game at South Carolina, but it'll need to rely on a defense that has surrendered double digits just three times this season to navigate the gauntlet and keep their CFP hopes alive.

No. 9 Miami: (5-1): Just when the Hurricanes seemed on a clear track for the CFP, an interception streak returned to haunt Carson Beck in a loss to Louisville. With one mulligan already used, Miami risks slipping late in the season, much like last year when two November losses ended its playoff hopes.

No. 14 Texas Tech (6-1): Even after spending a fortune on talent, the Red Raiders were reminded that games are still decided on the field. They erased a 12-point fourth-quarter deficit before giving up a late touchdown in a loss at Arizona State. The Big 12 is unpredictable, so one loss isn't fatal -- but Texas Tech can't rely on paychecks to carry them through the stretch run.

No. 8 Ole Miss (6-1): The Rebels knew coming into this crucial two-game stretch that they needed to at least split matchups against Georgia and Oklahoma to keep their CFP hopes firmly within reach. After suffering their first loss of the season in Athens, the upcoming game versus the Sooners is now potentially a must-win.

No. 10 Vanderbilt (6-1): Diego Pavia is going to carry the Commodores as far as his legs and arm can take them. There's still plenty of work to overcome, with key games against Missouri, at Texas and at Tennessee looming on the schedule. But purely on vibes, Vanderbilt has the resilience to keep the CFP conversation alive if Pavia continues to play at this level.

No. 15 Missouri (6-1): Eli Drinkwitz has the Tigers in position to be in the CFP conversation down the stretch, but he has to finally win against AP Top 25 SEC opponents. Missouri has dropped each of its last four such games, and with upcoming matchups against Vanderbilt, Texas A&M and Oklahoma, there's little room for error -- a couple slip-ups could derail a playoff push.

No. 16 Virginia (6-1): The Cardiac Cavaliers? Each of Virginia's past three games have been decided in either overtime or by fewer than three points. That's not necessarily an ideal way to win, but each victory brings the Cavaliers closer to a major breakthrough under coach Tony Elliott. They also have one of the easiest remaining slates in the ACC.

🟡 Bumper-to-bumper

Alive, but their path is crowded, narrow or highly dependent on others

No. 22 Texas (5-2): Let's be honest, the Longhorns offense stinks, and it's likely to cost them a shot at returning to the CFP for a third consecutive season. While the Texas defense remains one of the best in the nation, the three remaining games against current AP Top 10 opponents feel more like obstacles than opportunities.

No. 17 Tennessee (5-2): Both of the Volunteers' losses this season came against teams currently ranked in the top five of the AP poll. But Tennessee still doesn't have a ranked win on its resume, and the opportunities are dwindling. With upcoming matchups against Oklahoma and Vanderbilt, every remaining game feels like a must-win if the Volunteers want to stay in CFP contention.

No. 19 Louisville (5-1): That win at Miami could prove invaluable later in the season if the ACC comes down to tiebreakers. Louisville doesn't have another ranked opponent on the schedule, but a head-to-head showdown at SMU in November could have major implications for the conference title race.

No. 21 Cincinnati (6-1): The Bearcats are quietly one of the hottest teams in the country, riding a six-game win streak. While Cincinnati controls its own destiny in the Big 12 race, its remaining slate is among the toughest in the conference, with road trips to Utah, BYU and TCU all posing major tests.

No. 20 LSU (5-2): Barring a significant turnaround in the final stretch, it appears unlikely LSU can climb its way back into the CFP picture. The Tigers' best win so far is at Clemson to open the season -- which doesn't carry much weight this year.

No. 25 Michigan (5-2): The Wolverines are on the road for three of their next four games, a tough stretch with Sherrone Moore holding just a 2-5 record away from Ann Arbor as Michigan's coach.

No. 24 Arizona State (5-2): The Sun Devils made a statement that they aren't going to give up their title as reigning Big 12 champions easily with a stunning win over Texas Tech. Now, with the easiest remaining schedule in the conference, the path is opening for Arizona State to make a late push toward the CFP.

SMU (5-2): How's this for consistency? The Mustangs haven't lost a regular-season conference game since November 2022, riding a 20-game winning streak. SMU is also a perfect 11-0 in the regular season against ACC opponents since joining. However, both Miami and Louisville are still on the schedule, providing stiff tests before a legit consideration for the CFP again.

No. 23 Illinois (5-2): The Fighting Illini could make a strong case for an at-large CFP bid if they avoid another loss in their final five games. The only blemishes on Illinois' resume are losses to the current top two teams in the country -- Ohio State and Indiana -- but putting their fate in the committee's hands is always unpredictable.