College football expert dives into betting trends, spreads, angles for Week 12

Imagn Images

We've reached Week 12 of the 2025 college football season and with just a few weeks left to go in the regular season, we have plenty of data points to look at for each team.

As we have since mid-September, we note the weekly "point spread reversal" listing, wherein we identify teams off a spread result, win or lose, different from at least its two preceding spread results. There are another potential indicator of teams perhaps ready for a turnaround, good or bad.

Bet college football at DraftKings Sportsbook, where new users get $300 in bonus bets and 3 free months of NBA League Pass with a winning $5 wager:

Point spread reversal plus (+)

The teams: Air Force, Baylor, Buffalo, California, Charlotte, Clemson, Delaware, Florida International, Fresno State, Illinois, Iowa State, Kansas, NC State, New Mexico State, Oklahoma State, Old Dominion, Sam Houston, Southern Cal, Stanford, Temple, Tulane, UNLV

*Through games of Nov. 8

We keep close watch on the "Reversal Lists" in the first half of November as they often uncover teams that have found a second wind late in the campaign and close with a rush or a thud. We would pay particular attention to Air Force, which, at a similar stage last November, reeled off four wins in a row to close with a bang, with last Saturday's win at San Jose State perhaps setting the stage for another late-season surge.

Another team to watch is Clemson, looking to salvage something from a season gone bad, but displaying plenty of pride last weekend at Death Valley when looking inspired and taking out Florida State. It would not be a surprise if the Tigers close fast as they try to become bowl eligible.

Baylor's season has been a disappointment, too, but the Bears played perhaps their best game of the season last week in whipping UCF, breaking a long skid vs. the spread in the process.

Point spread reversal minus (-)

The teams: Arkansas State, Army, Boise State, Boston College, Cincinnati, Georgia Tech, Indiana, James Madison, Kansas State, Kennesaw State, Memphis, Miami-Ohio, Middle Tennessee, Mississippi State, North Carolina, Northwestern, Ohio State, Ole Miss, Oregon State, San Diego State, Troy, Virginia, Washington State, Wyoming

*Through games of Nov. 8

A shallow effort early in November has often indicated a late-season drop-off, and we wonder about some of the team listed above, some of which have been punching above their weight for much of the season and are perhaps regressing. Early November losses on the heels of more encouraging efforts that seemed like they might salvage a campaign are also often a precursor to late-season skids.

After squeezing out a few spread covers in a row, Derek Mason's Middle Tennessee was boat-raced by visiting FIU, allowing 56 points in the process, making some wonder if the Blue Raiders have any petrol left at all for the final few weeks of the season.

Oregon State, too, after a brief revival under interim HC Robb Akey, then inexplicably blew a double-digit lead at home vs. winless Sam Houston last week.

We might also keep an eye on Mississippi State, which has been punching above its weight for much for the past two seasons for Jeff Lebby before getting bulldozed last week by Georgia, and also with QB Blake Shapen's status now a bit iffy for this week against Missouri.

Point spread win streaks

5: Pittsburgh, Southern Miss (4-0-1 last five)

4: Coastal Carolina, Vanderbilt

3: Central Michigan, Michigan State, Missouri State, North Texas, Texas Tech, West Virginia

2: Akron, Eastern Michigan, Florida Atlantic, Iowa, Kentucky, Nebraska, New Mexico, Purdue, SMU, Texas A&M, UConn, UL-Lafayette, Utah, Western Kentucky, Wisconsin

*Through games of Nov. 8

As we sometimes see in early November, there is often a "point spread streak reset" in front of the final few weeks. A good number of the longer (three or more) spread streaks ended last week, but if history repeats, by the time November concludes, those three, four and five-game spread streaks are likely to be more heavily populated.

Though at the upper end of the list, Southern Miss continues to impress for HC Charles Huff, who was the point spread king last season when at Marshall and the Herd finished 10-1-1 vs. the line. It's been business as usual for Huff.

Coastal Carolina, on go-against lists in September when its offense was moribund, has continued a nice late-season recovery for HC Tim Beck.

Meanwhile, the likes of Texas Tech, Texas A&M and Utah appear to be gaining momentum in a push for the playoff spots and have shown no signs of slowing down.

Point spread losing streaks

7: Texas State

6: Navy

5: ULM

4: Bowling Green, Georgia State, Syracuse (0-3-1 last four)

3: Colorado, Colorado State, LSU, Texas, Maryland (0-2-1 last three), UCLA (0-2-1 last three)

2: Arkansas, Auburn, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Nevada, Oregon, TCU, Tulsa, UAB, UCF, UMass, UTEP, Western Michigan

*Through games of Nov. 8

Much like spread win streaks, the losing streaks had something of a clear out last week, though history suggests some of the above might have just begun late-season downturns that could manifest as campaign gets closer to its conclusion.

Some, like Georgia State, just continue to lose against the spread. Red-flag alerts at locales such as Maryland, Nevada, Tulsa and UMass, and the two Golden Hurricane and Minutemen enduring the sort of drop-offs we often see from programs enduring difficult seasons under their first-year coaches.

Away from spread plus (+) past two decisions

Utah +27.75
Kentucky +26.50
Akron +20.75
SMU +19.25
Texas A&M +18.00
Wisconsin +17.25
Hawaii +16.75
Iowa +14.00
New Mexico +14.00
Coastal Carolina +13.25
Texas Tech +13.00
West Virginia +12.50
East Carolina +11.50
Purdue +11.00
Fresno State +11.00
Florida International +10.75
UL-Lafayette +9.75
Florida Atlantic +9.50
UConn +9.50
UNLV +7.75
California +7.50
Western Kentucky +7.50
Missouri State +7.25

*Through games of Nov. 8

The "AFS Plus" list always gets more intriguing once into November, as the last month of the campaign often sees its own set of streaks and surges not always evident earlier in the campaign. Several of the teams on the above list appear to be in a late-season drive to the finish line, and picking up momentum.

Texas A&M and Texas Tech and perhaps Utah surely belong in that category as each seem to be improving by the week as they have all hit overdrive in their quest to make the 12-team playoff field.

After proving a slight disappointment earlier in the season, SMU has also seemed to hit stride in recent weeks and is very much in the ACC title picture, while a couple of Mountain West entries (Hawaii and New Mexico) have opened eyes in recent outings as well.

Away from spread minus (-) past two decisions

Colorado State -24.25
Boise State -20.50
UCLA -16.75
San Diego State -16.25
Florida -16.00
UMass -16.00
Colorado -15.50
Nevada -13.00
Oregon -11.75
Navy -11.50
UCF -11.50
TCU -11.25
ULM -11.25
LSU -11.00
Middle Tennessee -10.50
Marshall -10.25
Temple -10.00
Louisville -9.75
Michigan -9.50
Missouri -9.50
Delaware -9.25
Tulsa -9.25
Arkansas -9.00
Auburn -9.00
Troy -9.00
Northern Illinois -8.00
Oregon State -8.00

*Through games of Nov. 9

Some of the teams noted in this week's "AFS Minus" list also appear in the two-game spread losing streak group that we noted above, and we would pay particular attention to some of these sides that look to be on the verge of falling into the abyss as the season winds down.

Florida, working for an interim HC in Billy Gonzales, isn't among the two-spread-Ls-in-a-row group, but its no-show effort last week at Kentucky felt and looked like two losses instead of just one.

UMass is appearing hopelessly outmatched, even in its new MAC membership, and continues to prove non-competitive.

We have also been looking for signs of life at UCF, where Scott Frost's return to Orlando has turned into a non-event, and the Knights giving little indication they are preparing for a late-season recovery.

Shade/Fade alert this week

Air Force

We noted Air Force above in the "Spread Reversal" chart above and believe the Falcons might be worth a bit more illumination this week. Rewind to a year ago when Troy Calhoun got the Falcons moving in November to close with four straight wins after enduring a bumpy road earlier in the campaign when searching for a proper option pilot. Last fall it proved to be Quentin Hayes, though he left the Academy in the spring. This fall, sophomore QB Liam Szarka grabbed the reins of the offense a bit sooner (in late September) but has evolved into the latest of a long lien of dynamic Calhoun QBs, on the verge of 1,000 rushing yards while also proving able to get the ball downfield through the air (1260 passing yards, not bad for an Air Force QB). Keep in mind Szarka can throw as he passed for more than 6,000 yards in his high school career, but he's doing what's needed in the Calhoun offense.

Air Force's problems earlier in the season had more to do with the defense, but the Falcons are still swarming on the stop end and last week's 26-16 win at San Jose State snapped a string of four straight Falcons games decided by exactly three points (three of those being losses). As you can see, Air Force hasn't been far off of it this season, and this November, the chance at finishing again with four straight wins (which is very real) would get the Falcons bowl eligible.

Next game: Saturday at UConn

Lean: Shade

Kentucky

Talk of Mark Stoops being on the Lexington hot seat started to fire up in October to the point where his big contract buyout became a news item in the region. Though Stoops has earned past respect throughout the SEC for past successes, his recent offenses had become too stodgy to compete in such an avant-garde league. Plus, the fact that alum Jon Sumrall has continued to win at Tulane and has long been known to be on speed dial for Kentucky AD Mitch Barnhart in case a change was forthcoming is worth noting.

Sources told us Stoops wasn't ready to surrender easily, however, and all of a sudden the Wildcats are snarling again with back-to-back wins as an underdog at Auburn and a 38-7 walloping of Florida in Lexington last week. Along the way, once ballyhooed redshirt freshman QB Cutter Boley, who replaced an injured Zach Calzada in September, finally began to get comfy, and he looks like a real live SEC QB these days with 10 TD passes across the past five games, with two games over 250 passing yards that stretch while displaying good dual-threat tendencies. In other words, he's starting to live up to the hype.

The Cats can still get bowl eligible with wins in two of their last three, which would be a nice accomplishment considering where the team sat a few weeks ago. First, however, comes an interesting matchup with FCS powerhouse Tennessee Tech, which enters Lexington with a 10-0 mark on Saturday.

Next games: Saturday vs. Tennessee Tech, then Nov. 22 at Vanderbilt

Lean: Shade

Louisville

What gives lately with the 'Ville? After surging into the rankings and signifying itself as a serious contender in the ACC following a midseason upset win at Miami, the Cards haven't looked quite the same, first in an unexpected struggle at home against Boston College, then forced to rally after a sluggish first half against a Virginia Tech squad playing for an interim HC. And finally, there was the coup de grace, falling flat at home against a near three-touchdown underdog Cal side that entered the Louisville with no momentum, yet somehow walked out with a 29-26 OT win.

Some ACC observers are keeping a close eye on QB Miller Moss, the USC transfer who looked good enough in the first half of the season but not so much lately. It's a Moss pattern we saw last fall with the Trojans when he started in a blaze of glory for the first month of the campaign but ended up getting benched by Lincoln Riley in November. Moss' QBR has slipped noticeably as the season has progressed, and his numbers vs. the Golden Bears (including just 4.8 yards per dropback) were alarming, to say the least. For the season, Moss has only 11 TD passes to seven picks, hardly an inspiring stat line into mid-November. It also hasn't helped HC Jeff Brohm that his dynamic leading rusher, Isaac Brown, missed the Cal game with a leg injury and is iffy for Friday against Clemson.

Next game: Friday vs. Clemson

Lean: Fade

Virginia

The season has definitely been an uplifting one for the Cavaliers as HC Tony Elliott, whose job appeared on the line entering the fall, has thrown himself a lifeline by keeping UV in the ACC race and even the national rankings into mid-November, the sorts of things no one talked about at ACC Media Days in Charlotte back in July.

There have been signs all season, however, that the Cavs were simply flying too close to the flame, including three overtime wins in a four-game stretch over Florida State, Louisville and North Carolina. Even the 31-21 win at Cal on Nov. 1 was harrowing, the result not sealed until another pick-six in the final seconds.

Yet it all came crashing down last week at Charlottesville against Wake Forest, which scored a 16-9 upset. It didn't help Elliott that his QB, North Texas transfer Chandler Morris, was knocked out of action in the first half with a concussion and neck injury. The offense didn't score a TD behind backup QB Daniel Kaelin. The metrics for Morris, however, had already been sagging in recent weeks and his return to active duty for this week is no sure thing. There just might not be enough gas left in Virginia's tanks to avoid a late-season fall.

Next game: Saturday at Duke

Lean: Fade

Western Kentucky

Here's a name to watch as the coaching carousel gets ready to spin full-speed in the next few weeks: Tyson Helton. The WKU head coach has proven a consistent winner with creative offenses that always land the Tops in a bowl, and they're already bowl eligible at 7-2 this season with a chance to make another appearance in the Conference USA title game. Helton has been doing it in recent weeks with backup QB Rodney Tisdale Jr., who seems to be getting better with each start, especially his last outing against New Mexico State when he passed for 301 yards and four TDs in a 35-16 cruise past the Aggies. He's completed 75% of his passes across his last two starts that also includes a rousing OT win at Louisiana Tech, and he's shown the ability to move out of the pocket. Tisdale has been subbing for Maverick McIvor, who has been out with a shoulder injury, and could return soon, but if nothing else, it looks like Helton has two QBs as the Hilltoppers get ready to go bowling again.

Now, in regard to the carousel, note Helton (whose brother Clay is HC at Georgia Southern) is another client of super-agent Jimmy Sexton. Various regional onlookers believe Helton is more than ready for the move up to the "next tier" and are watching developments at places such as Memphis and Tulane, where their respective coaches (Ryan Silverfield and Jon Sumrall) are candidates to be hired away, are spots where many believe Helton would proved a very nice fit. Stay tuned.

Next game: Saturday vs. Middle Tennessee

Lean: Shade