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One of the byproducts of this weekly charting of various point spread angles and resultant streaks is uncovering some go-with and go-against possibilities from all varieties of leagues, Group of Five entries in particular. With most of the attention in the national media focused on the Power 4 conferences, it's performances from the mid-major loops that often provides some of the more intriguing under-the-radar situations each season.

2025 is no different in that regard. Raise your hand if your were projecting San Diego State to become the hottest spread team (six wins vs. the line in a row) in the country? Or that Texas State (all spread losses in its last six) would be one of the worst performers vs. the line? If anything, when the season started, consensus opinion was mostly opposite on the Aztecs and Bobcats. Yet each has been identified in the weekly point spread wins and loss streaks since well back into September.    

Meanwhile, an unexpected point spread showdown will take place this weekend in the Sun Belt involving Southern Miss and Arkansas State, who tee it up on Saturday afternoon in Jonesboro. All the Golden Eagles have done is go 3-0-1 vs. line their last four and 5-2-1 vs. spread this season for Charles Huff, who is now 15-3-2 vs. spread since last season counting his time at Marshall. As for Ark State, it has rallied admirably for head coach Butch Jones and has now won and covered four straight this season, three of those as an underdog.

Bottom line? Don't overlook the Group of Five teams -- there's always plenty of nuggets to uncover in those ranks.

As we have since mid-September, we note the weekly "point spread reversal" listing, wherein we identify teams off a spread result, win or lose, different from at least its two preceding spread results. There are another potential indicator of teams perhaps ready for a turnaround...good or bad.

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Point spread reversal plus (+)

The teams: Akron, Arizona, Baylor, Buffalo, Florida, Florida State, Fresno State, Illinois, Liberty, La Tech, Nebraska, North Carolina State, Northern Illinois, Oklahoma State, Old Dominion, Purdue, San Jose State, Tulsa, U-Lafayette, Wisconsin 

*Through games of Nov. 1

Many extended point spread win streaks this season were first identified in early stages by inclusion in the above grouping, and there's still time in November for one of the above to go on a late-season run. It's also worthwhile to look under the hood just a bit at the teams above and identify what might not have been the start of a late-season run.  

QB injuries played a key role last week, though in Nebraska's case, it still managed a spread cover vs. USC. Still, the Cornhuskers looked bound for an outright win until QB Dylan Raiola suffered a broken fibula, forcing backup TJ Lateef into the lineup after he hadn't played since early-season blowouts of Akron and Houston Christian, and he couldn't throw the ball downfield and ended up with just seven yards on seven attempts.  

Meanwhile, Fresno State had a related but different group of dynamics last week at Boise State, though this time it was Broncos QB Maddux Madsen knocked out of the game, with backup Max Cutforth proving a negative, not only also unable to get the ball downfield (3.7 yards per his 29 pass attempts) but further killing Boise's chances that were converted into quick scores by Fresno. Indeed, the Broncos might have been better off just using direct snaps to RB Dylan Riley. Still, you can't fault the Bulldogs for taking advantage.  

As for the Huskers, they're at UCLA this Saturday minus Raiola, and Lateef has got to grow up fast. Meanwhile, watch Florida State, which seemed to take out a month's worth of frustrations in its romp of Wake Forest as it looks to rediscover its September form. There's also a sense of urgency for HC Mike Norvell and staff, who fell back onto the Tallahassee hot seat after the preceding four consecutive losses on the heels of last year's 2-10 debacle.

Point spread reversal minus (-)

The teams: Boise State, Cincinnati, Georgia, Georgia Tech, Hawaii,  Houston, Kansas State, Marshall, Notre Dame, South Florida, Troy, UCF, Wake Forest, Washington State, Wyoming

*Through games of Nov. 1

Coming out of October, we often see various balloons popped for several teams, and their performances downgrade the last month of the season. Often, we're looking for teams that have been punching above their weight for the first half of the season. Thus, despite flying high for the first half of the season, we'd keep an eye on teams like Cincinnati and Georgia Tech, as sustaining that unexpected level of high play for the first half of the campaign might prove problematic, especially for higher-profile teams that have been appearing in the national polls. 

We wonder, too, about a team like Wake Forest, the definition of a team "punching above its weight" for the past month, but apparently still trick-or-treating the night after Halloween in Tallahassee when it was routed 42-7 by Florida State. Other teams we'd pay particularly close attention to are Troy and Washington State, whose recent stretch of good efforts came to crashing halts last weekend.

Point spread win streaks

6: San Diego State, Troy

5: Kennesaw State, Miami-Ohio, Ohio State, Pittsburgh

4: Arkansas State, Northwestern, Southern Miss 3-0-1 last four

3: BYU, Central Michigan, Coastal Carolina, Michigan State, Middle Tennessee, Mississippi State, North Carolina, North Texas, Vanderbilt

2: Army, Boston College, Indiana, James Madison. Memphis, Missouri State, New Mexico, Oregon State, Ole Miss, Texas Tech, Utah, Virginia, West Virginia, Western Kentucky

*Through games of Nov. 1

Invariably each season, the list above includes some eye-openers in the "How did they get in there?" category, such as Kennesaw State, the definition of flying under the radar and not only covering five in a row, but winning all of those outright in a stunning turn of events north of Atlanta. 

Then there's Middle Tennessee. Have the Blue Raiders really covered three in a row? It's true, even though Derek Mason's troops dropped all three of those games outright. Boston College has been surprisingly plucky the past two games against Louisville and Notre Dame, notching easy spread covers. What had been a moribund Oregon State has won two in a row and suddenly looks energized for interim head coach Robb Akey after appearing mutinous as losses mounted for Akey's predecessor Trent Bray.  

Point spread losing streaks

6: Texas State

5: Navy, ULM

4: Cal, Delaware, Iowa State

3: Bowling Green, Georgia State, Kansas, Syracuse, Texas, UNLV

2: Air Force, Arkansas, Charlotte, Clemson, Colorado, Colorado State, Florida international, LSU, Michigan, Minnesota, New Mexico State, Temple, Sam Houston, Stanford, Southern Cal, Western Michigan

*Through games of Nov. 1.

And then there was one. After spread covers by Baylor and Nebraska last week, the aforementioned Texas State is now clear from the pack with the longest spread losing streak (six) in the country.

We are also surprised to see Navy continue to fall short against the number -- five in a row now for the Midshipmen after emerging as a textbook overachiever a year ago. Navy had been winning these games outright into last week when the walls finally came crashing down at North Texas. This week? Notre Dame in South Bend, which in years past was usually a good point spread spot for Navy, but it's gotten ugly the last two years, beaten a combined 93-17. 

A more traditional collapse seems to be happening at ULM, as the Warhawks have not only been losing vs. the spread, but losing outright (often heavily) the past month. 

Meanwhile, still-winless (straight up) Sam Houston's dizzying spin into the abyss has continued; the Bearkats have just one spread cover for first-year head coach Phil Longo. We wonder, too, if Temple might finally be running out of gas for KC Keeler after mostly punching up into midseason. 

Away from spread plus (+) past two decisions

  • James Madison +29.75
  • Utah +27.75
  • Coastal Carolina +20.00
  • West Virginia +16.75
  • Arizona +15.00
  • North Carolina +14.25
  • New Mexico +14.00
  • Indiana +13.50
  • Boston College +13.00
  • San Diego State +12.75
  • East Carolina +12.00
  • BYU +11.50
  • UAB +10.50
  • Fresno State +10.00
  • Kennesaw State +9.50
  • La Tech +9.50
  • Texas Tech +9.25
  • Liberty +8.50
  • Texas A&M +8.50
  • Memphis +8.50
  • Ole Miss +8.25
  • Purdue +8.00
  • Wyoming +8.00
  • Oregon State +7.50
  • Western Kentucky +7.50

*Through games of Nov. 1

Keep in mind that while the AFS Plus list can be illuminating, it also can deceive, as one particularly good or bad effort always precedes inclusion in the list. Unexpected wins by the likes of UAB (over Memphis) and Fresno State (over Boise State) have propelled each into the list above, though we don't necessarily consider it a buy signal from either.  

We do, however, want to take note of a stretch of good efforts from Bill Belichick's North Carolina, finally rewarded with an outright win last Friday over Syracuse.  Liberty has also shown up after one especially good effort when mauling Delaware last week, though in the case of the Flames, we might keep our eyes on them just a bit.

Away from spread minus (-) past two decisions

  • Colorado -31.25
  • Boise State -20.00
  • Sam Houston -19.75
  • Bowling Green -19.25
  • Kansas -17.25
  • Colorado State -16.25
  • Delaware -15.75
  • Texas State -15.50
  • Temple -15.25
  • Tulane -14.25
  • Iowa State -14.00
  • Charlotte -13.50
  • Syracuse -13.00
  • Clemson -12.75
  • UCLA -12.00
  • Maryland -11.50,
  • Wake Forest -10.25
  • Florida International -9.50
  • Michigan -9.50
  • Arkansas -9.00
  • Troy -9.00
  • Utah State -8.00
  • Marshall -7.75
  • New Mexico State -7.75
  • Navy -7.25

*Through games of Nov. 1

We would pay particular attention to teams that continue to show up on the above list. Kansas is at the point this season when a late rally is looking increasingly unlikely after failing to cover against a woebegone Oklahoma State team last week and getting mauled in the Sunflower State Showdown against Kansas State the previous week.

Iowa State continues to feature in the above list. Its outright losing streak now at four as some begin to wonder about the ramifications of playing Week Zero overseas in Dublin, which has often resulted in both teams involved enduring disappointing subsequent campaigns. 

Syracuse is also becoming increasingly non-competitive as the campaign progresses, a downturn that can be directly traced to QB Steve Angeli's season-ending Achilles injury. Fran Brown's QB depth has proven a disappointment as the Orange are now conducting open auditions at the position.    

Shade/Fade alert this week

Bowling Green

It was a nice story the first half of the season for the Falcons and new head coach Eddie George, as BGSU decided "why not" and jumped into a queue of colleges hiring former great players after those sorts cut their coaching teeth at the FCS level. In George's case, it was at Tennessee State. 

BGSU wasn't playing badly the first month of the season and was especially plucky against the spread. Yet it all seems to be unraveling in recent weeks as the Falcons have disappeared into the lower reaches of the MAC, bottoming out in last week's non-competitive loss to Buffalo.  

Much-traveled QB Drew Pyne (now at his fourth school), who at one point was starting at Notre Dame, returned last week after a month-long absence but was decidedly ineffective against the Bulls and his season-long ledger reads just four TD passes to five picks. Worse, two of the losses in the current three-game spinout have come at home at Doyt Perry Stadium, where Central Michigan rolled to a 27-6 win a few weeks earlier. 

Next game: Saturday at Eastern Michigan

Lean: Fade

Delaware

We don't want to sound like we're picking on the Blue Hens considering their move up from the FCS ranks this season and displaying plenty of mettle in the first half of the campaign. Preseason doubters wondered how UD might hold up through the entirety of a more-demanding FBS-level schedule as depth concerns would likely be raised as the season progressed. 

Well, Ryan Carty's team looks like it might have hit that marker after getting lambasted 59-30 last week by Liberty as the Flames, somewhat punchless the first half of the season, piled up 561 yards. It was the second non-competitive effort in two weeks after the Hens were taken apart by Jacksonville State a couple of weeks earlier, and a desperate win in Newark over Mason's lowly Middle Tennessee squad. 

The defense is springing too many leaks while the offense is beginning to lean even more heavily upon QB Nick Minicucci, who risks Tommy John surgery if he keeps averaging nearly 50 passes per game as has been the case the past month. A little more balance from the run game would also help to slow down the pace of recent games and perhaps keep the defense off of the field a bit longer, but that hasn't been happening. 

Next game: Saturday vs. Louisiana Tech

Lean: Fade

North Carolina

The season is going to be a disappointment in Chapel Hill considering all the hype surrounding the Belichick hire and the various depths the Tar heels plumbed in the first half of the season, which started badly in that 48-14 drubbing administered by visiting TCU on the opening Monday night. Yet we always are keeping an eye on teams making improvements as the season progresses and over the course of the past three games, there have been some tangible signs of progress for UNC, which was desperately unlucky to not win games at Cal and especially at home against a charmed Virginia. The Cavs foiled a potential game-winning 2-point conversion by the Heels in overtime that was literally inches short of reversing that result. 

UNC went to the Dome last Friday and dominated Syracuse. The offense, ponderous the first half of the season, is finding its legs as the ground game looks revived (210 yards rushing against the Orange), while QB Gio Lopez has had his two best passing efforts of the season (200+ yards for the first time) against the Cavs and Syracuse. Meanwhile, the defense now looks better organized, something that could be expected from a Belichick team. 

It's not quite what some were expecting, but the Heels could finish on a nice uptick and get Belichick a bowl bid with wins in three of the last four, which looks very achievable. 

Next game: Saturday vs. Stanford

Lean: Shade

Pittsburgh

We wonder if we're a bit late to the party with Pittsburgh, which we've been tracking closely if not highlighting the past several weeks. The Panthers are suddenly being mentioned as a possible playoff entrant out of the ACC, which could be reduced to a one-bid league after a recent string of results.  

There was a clear demarcation point this season for the Panthers when HC Pat Narduzzi made the switch at QB from Eli Holstein to freshman Mason Heintschel, who, along with Trinidad Chambliss at Ole Miss, has emerged as one of the most unlikely stars of the 2025 season. Heintschel is 5-0 SU and against the spread as a starter and while there have been a few rough edges, he has shown the knack for making the big play when needed, including a 423-yard, four-TD blockbuster effort against NC State two weeks ago. The only question Narduzzi might be asking is if he waited too long to switch to Heintschel.  

Meanwhile, another gnarly Narduzzi defense ranks a respectable 28th in the country. If nothing else, the Panthers, on a bye this week, are going to be an interesting watch in mid-November, as their last three games (Notre Dame, Georgia Tech, Miami) all have potential CFP consequences. It's not quite "all roads lead through Pitt," but who expected to say even consider bringing up such an idea back in September?  

Next game: Nov. 15 vs. Notre Dame

Lean: Shade

West Virginia

Various Big 12 insiders were thinking that bringing back Rich Rodriguez for a second tour of duty in Morgantown was probably a good idea, though they weren't holding their breath for a quick breakthrough. "Rich Rod" had a lot of work to do in the portal to get his "Mountaineers 2.0" roster up to acceptable, and needed to find a proper pilot to execute his patented read option offense. 

For the latter, Rodriguez had to settle upon holdover Nicco Marchiol, whose scrappiness endeared him to the new staff, though he was not quite the fit Rodriguez was hoping for to run his offense, which hit a few high notes with Marchiol but had mostly underperformed. Marchiol would eventually suffer a foot injury that will likely keep him out for the duration of 2025, and after a brief test run for freshman Khalil Watkins, Rodriguez has settled upon another freshman, Scotty Fox Jr, who has looked the best fit for the Mounties' offense in the past two games, chasing TCU down to the wire two weeks ago and then stunning heavily-favored Houston last week. If nothing else, Rodriguez might have found his quarterback.

Next game: Saturday vs. Colorado

Lean: Shade