College football picks: Week 10 spread trends and betting angles from proven expert

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We spend much of our time in this space looking to identify point spread trends either before they exhaust, or early enough to take advantage of pending streaks. Yet there are so many angles to the weekly point spread puzzle that sometimes it makes sense to look beyond the current streaks to identify trends and patterns.

Late spread covers perhaps shouldn't be regarded as flukes; rather, an identifiable pattern. This brings us to Jonathan Smith's Michigan State team, which, despite what looks like another completely unremarkable season in East Lansing, has nonetheless managed unlikely spread wins in four of its last five games ... each of those four through the proverbial "back door." Knowingly or unknowingly, Smith's decision to kick what seemed like a meaningless last-minute 34-yard field goal by Martin Covington two weeks ago at Indiana with 33 seconds left cut the final margin to 25 points and inside of the 26.5-point spread. Last week against Michigan, backup QB Alessio Milivojevic fired a 21-yard TD pass to Michael Masunas with seven seconds left to cut the final margin to 31-20 ... and inside the 13.5-point spread. At Nebraska on Oct. 4, it was Milivojevic again leading a belated 75-yard TD drive that ended with his short sneak for a TD to cut the final margin to 38-27 ... inside the 12.5-point spread. In the preceding game two weeks earlier at USC, it was first-stringer Aidan Chiles firing up a 75-yard TD to Omari Smith with 2:39 left to get the Spartans to within 45-31 ... and inside the 18.5-point spread.

Will the Spartans come in the back door again this week at Minnesota? We're not sure, especially since there isn't a double-digit cushion involved. What we won't do, however, is dismiss the Spartans just because they have managed some late spread covers. For this team, playing the full 60 minutes and getting a late TD or field goal regardless of the score might simply be part of its makeup.

As we have throughout October, we note the weekly "point spread reversal" listing, wherein we identify teams off a spread result, win or lose, different from at least its two preceding spread results. Again, this is another potential indicator of teams perhaps ready for a turnaround ... good or bad.

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Point spread reversal plus (+)

The teams: Akron, Boston College, Jacksonville State, James Madison, Missouri State, Northern Illinois, Ole Miss, Oregon State, Penn State, Rice, Rutgers, South Alabama, South Carolina, Tennessee, Tulsa, UAB, UTEP, Virginia Tech, Wisconsin

*Through games of Oct. 25.

As the season progresses, the challenge with the above listing is to differentiate which teams might have just managed a random spread cover with no real indicator of a pending advance, or perhaps the start of late-season rush into November. For the former? We're reluctant to consider it a buy signal for a team like Oregon State, which hadn't managed a spread cover prior and only got one of those thanks to FCS Lafayette appearing on the October schedule. We might pay more attention to a team like South Alabama, as Major Applewhite's Jags have been competitive all season and might have finally turned a corner in the OT win at Georgia State.

We also admit to being impressed by recent Big Ten efforts from Penn State and Wisconsin, both among the major disappointments of the first half of the season but each displaying a sharper edge in recent games.

Point spread reversal minus (-)

The teams: Arkansas, Clemson, Colorado, Duke, New Mexico State, SMU, South Florida, Temple, UConn, Western Michigan

*Through games of Oct. 25.

It's a thinner list for the above grouping this week. We can say off the bat we don't foresee Clemson at the beginning of another downturn as the recent loss to SMU was largely due to the absence of QB Cade Klubnik. There was a big drop off to backup Christopher Vizzina in the SMU game and while there's no official word yet, sources say there's a good chance Klubnik's ankle has healed enough for him to start Saturday's game at Duke.

We're also watching Arkansas and interim HC Bobby Petrino, and we wonder where the Hogs go in November after kicking away a late lead against Auburn, a third straight loss since Sam Pittman walked the plank, with distractions and portal decisions mounting. Colorado might also bear watching, as the 53-7 loss at Utah might have been the worst effort of the Deion Sanders regime and regional observers are wondering if the earlier momentum from his tenure is lost.

Point spread win streaks

5: Miami-Ohio, Notre Dame, San Diego State, Troy

4: Hawaii, Kansas State, Kennesaw State, Northwestern, Pittsburgh, Wake Forest, Washington State, Maryland and Southern Miss (3-0-1 last four)

3: Arkansas State, BYU, Georgia, Georgia Tech, Houston, Wyoming

2: Boise State, Central Michigan, Cincinnati, Coastal Carolina, Marshall, Michigan State, Middle Tennessee, Mississippi State, North Carolina, North Texas, Ohio State, UCF, Vanderbilt

*Through games of Oct. 25.

As always, we hope we're not too late with some of those above. In Notre Dame's case, it's continued point spread excellence that has been a trademark of Marcus Freeman's time in South Bend.

We noted Miami-Ohio as a "shade" team last week as HC Chuck Martin looks in the midst of one of his patented late-season surges for the RedHawks. We also keep an eye on both Jake Dickert's new team (Wake Forest) and his former team (Washington State), both of which have proven substantial surprise packages this season.

Further down the list, Bill Belichick's North Carolina squad still isn't winning outright, but efforts the past two games (and resultant spread covers at Cal and home vs. Virginia) have been much improved from earlier in the season.

Point spread losing streaks

6: Baylor

5: Nebraska, Texas State

4: Buffalo, Florida State, Fresno State, Navy, Oklahoma State, ULM

3: California, Delaware, Florida, Georgia State, Iowa State, La Tech, Liberty, LSU, Old Dominion

2: Arizona, Bowling Green, Charlotte, Kansas, Illinois, Liberty, NC State, Purdue, San Jose State, Texas, Syracuse, UL-Lafayette

*Through games of Oct. 25.

For the moment, Baylor has overtaken Penn State and some other early-season underachievers as the worse spread team in the country. We admit to some surprise at continuing to see Navy's name included in the list above -- the Midshipmen haven't covered a game since Sept. 13 at Tulsa but they haven't yet lost a game outright either.

We always keep an eye on early stages of a slump for teams that had higher hopes this season now all but dashed. Even though the Jayhawks are likely bowl-bound after missing out on the postseason a year ago, Kansas was thought to have a puncher's chance in the Big 12 race, but instead the defense has leaked profusely in four losses to relegate the Jayhawks to minor bowl consideration at best.

Similarly, Illinois was fancied by some to be a fringe CFP contender this season, but after dropping a third game of the campaign last weekend in a subpar effort at Washington, the Fighting Illini look instead bound for another minor bowl.

Away from spread plus (+) past two decisions

Kennesaw State +25.00
San Diego State +23.00
Marshall +21.25
Kansas State +21.00
Washington State +18.75
Coastal Carolina +18.25
North Texas +18.25
Central Michigan +17.50
Western Michigan +13.50
Hawaii +13.25
James Madison +13.25,
UCF +13.25
Wake Forest +13.25
Texas A&M +13.00
Cincinnati +12.75
Utah +12.75
Wyoming +12.25
BYU +11.50
Iowa +11.25
Southern Miss +11.25
Indiana +11.00
Stanford +9.75
Troy +9.50
Pitt +9.25
Temple +9.25
North Carolina +8.75
Houston +8.25
Northwestern +8.00
Boise State +7.50
Arkansas State +7.25
UAB +7.00

*Through games of Oct. 25

We see various under-the-radar teams sneaking into the two-week "AFS" chart each week, and this edition is no different. A lot of 'cappers might have lost the scent on nondescript Sun Belt entries such as Marshall and Coastal Carolina earlier in the season, but suddenly the Thundering Herd and Chantacleers are among the biggest spread overachievers in recent weeks. Similarly, San Diego State and Washington State continue to show up within the "plus" list on a weekly basis.

We might also take note of Kirk Ferentz and his Iowa side that might be getting lost in the Big Ten hoopla with all of the attention being paid to Indiana and Ohio State, but the Hawkeyes have another roughhouse unit and are capable of pounding some of the loop's also-rans into submission, as was the case last weekend when claiming Floyd of Rosedale yet again over Minnesota.

Away from spread minus (-) past two decisions

Fresno State -27.00
Old Dominion -22.50
Florida State -19.25
Bowling Green -19.00
Colorado State -16.25
ULM -15.75
Buffalo -14.50
Rutgers -14.25
Charlotte -13.50
Iowa State -13.50
LSU -13.50
Nebraska -13.00
Virginia -12.50
UCLA -12.00
Delaware -11.0,0
Rice -11.00
Western Kentucky -11.00
Colorado -10.75
Memphis -10.75
Texas State -10.75
Troy +9.75
NC State -9.50
Baylor -9.25
Liberty -8.00
Purdue -8.00
Utah State -8.00
Florida -8.75
Illinois -7.75
West Virginia -7.75

*Through games of Oct. 25.

Keep in mind one big scoreline is always apt to distort a two-week average; take Rutgers, destroyed two weeks ago by Oregon 56-10 before recovering to beat Purdue. Others, however, might represent a developing pattern, such as with Eddie George's Bowling Green, which after some encouraging efforts in the first month of the season and some enduring fanfare with its new mascot cat Pudge, looks to be losing altitude fast.

We also think it illuminating, to a degree, that Virginia shows up on the above list despite moving into the rankings with only one loss this season. The Cavaliers, however, have won three games in overtime and their chops as a margin team look quite shaky after barely surviving outright as a significant favorite against Washington State and North Carolina the past two weeks. At the least, the Cavs might not be a team trusted to carry a big number.

Shade/Fade alert this week

Colorado State

Sometimes, we'd just like to call timeout on everything about CSU football, which has long had notions of itself as a big-time program. We have our doubts about a team that, among other things, has three completely different shades of uniforms.

Fashion aside, CSU has long considered itself too big for the Mountain West while not really doing much on the field to suggest as much, and it quickly jumped at the offer to join the reconfigured Pac-12 next season. The Rams will not be doing so with much momentum, having just hit the eject button on HC Jay Norvell while hardly rallying for interim Tyson Summers in his debut last week against Wyoming in a 28-0 loss at Laramie.

Coming into the season, many Mountain West observers believed QB Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi might be overrated and weren't surprised he was benched in September, but backup Jackson Brousseau hardly seemed a better option. Now, CSU might be ready to turn to pint-sized freshman Darius Curry, but only because there don't seem to be many more alternatives. The offense has been in shambles all season, ranking 113th overall and 119th in scoring (19.1 PPG), and a late-season rally with the roster and staff alike looking at escape routes out of Fort Collins all suggest the next month might not get any better.

Next game: Nov. 8 vs. UNLV

Lean: Fade

Fresno State

A quick look at the Mountain West standings and you might wonder why we have our doubts about the Bulldogs. After all, they're sitting at 5-3 and are just one win from bowl eligibility.

The last two efforts, however, have been particularly unsightly, a thumping loss to a bad Colorado State team and a listless shutout loss against San Diego State last week. Some cracks are appearing in the foundation, perhaps, for first-year HC Matt Entz, hired off Lincoln Riley's USC staff after some real success as head coach at North Dakota State, including FCS titles in 2019 and 2021. Yet many in the Central Valley, and reportedly many Bulldog players, were hoping that last year's interim, Tim Skipper, would instead get the job on a full-time basis.

On the field, Fresno State seems to be unraveling, too, with Entz benching much-traveled and error-prone QB EJ Warner last week against the Aztecs, only to see the offense get blanked behind Sacramento State transfer QB Carson Conklin. The recent trends are cause for concern in Fresno.

Next game: Saturday at Boise State

Lean: Fade

San Diego State

Sometimes, the worst thing to do might be to watch a team play a particularly bad game. Take the Aztecs, who looked mostly awful in a 36-13 loss at Washington State back on Sept. 6, suggesting it might be more of the same for second-year HC Sean Lewis after an especially bumpy ride in his first season a year ago on Montezuma Mesa.

It didn't take long, however, for SDSU to forge a turnaround behind what has been one of the nation's most-dominant defenses, harkening to some of the bests top units from the decorated Rocky Long era for the Aztecs. SDSU hasn't lost or failed to cover a spread in five since the debacle in Pullman, and now counts three shutouts to its credit just past midseason. National defense stats show the Aztecs in some rarified air, ninth overall (just 255 YPG allowed) and second in scoring (10.4 PPG, behind only mighty Ohio State).

The offense isn't quite a smooth-running machine, but Michigan transfer QB Jayden Denegal has proven a modest upgrade at a position. At 3-0 in the Mountain West, SDSU's win margin in league games is a whopping 26 PPG. Could this be a sleeper team to sneak into the Group of Five at-large spot in the CFP?

Next game: Saturday vs. Wyoming

Lean: Shade

Southern Miss

We're talking about Golden Eagles HC Charles Huff, who steered Marshall to an unexpected Sun Belt title a year ago as well as a 10-1-1 spread record. We'd have thought Herd administrators would have done everything they could to keep Huff in Huntington, but after they dragged their feet on a contract extension after Marshall's win in the Belt title game last December, Huff decided to take the offer (and a reported $200K annual raise) to move to Hattiesburg, where the USM program had fallen into disrepair while Marshall was left without much of a team or coach for its Independence Bowl date against Army, which the Herd eventually had to pull out.

Disrepair doesn't need to last long in these days of the portal in college football, however, and Huff, who had worked the transfer market well at Huntington, brought more than 20 Herd players with him to USM, including QB Braylon Braxton. After four TD passes in last week's 49-21 romp past ULM, Braxton's 1.5-year stat line at Marshall and USM now includes 37 TD passes to just six picks.

Even in two prior losses to SEC Mississippi State and likely bowl-bound La Tech, Huff's rebuilt Golden Eagles didn't play badly, and now they're on a roll, leading their half (the West) of the Belt along with surprising Troy, and are on a four-game unbeaten run (3-0-1 vs. the spread). It's looking a lot like Huff's Marshall from last season.

Next game: Nov. 8 at Arkansas State

Lean: Shade

Washington State

As noted earlier with the Aztecs, there is always a danger to watching a team play a particularly bad game, or two. Take the Cougars, who in back-to-back weeks in September allowed 59 points each to North Texas and then old rival UW in the Apple Cup. Who could blame anyone for dismissing WSU after those efforts? The Cougs have looked a different team since, reeling off four spread wins on the spin.

Granted, skeptics remain, claiming the schedule worked against recent foes Ole Miss and Virginia, each in the rankings and in the midst of heated conference races. A non-conference game against WSU, stuck in the middle of the league slate, looked a likely flat spot. Yet both the Rebs and Cavs were lucky to escape with their lives against WSU, with the Ole Miss insiders in particular impressed by the Cougs' speed and execution, which had them on the verge of a huge upset. Virginia might have been more fortunate to escape, trailing almost the whole way and needing a late safety to win.

Last week, MAC contender Toledo was taken apart in the Palouse. Schedule breaks? Perhaps. But under first-year HC Jimmy Rogers, who's coming off of a successful run at Big Sky South Dakota State, the Cougs can argue they're the most balanced team in the country while QB Zevi Eckhaus, who impressed in his first real action in the Holiday Bowl against Syracuse last December, has emerged as a capable dual-threat pilot for the offense.

Next game: Saturday at Oregon State

Lean: Shade