College Football Week 11 picks, score predictions: Texas Tech takes control of Big 12, Georgia wins a shootout

Week 11 of the college football season will be the first time teams at the top know exactly where they stand with the College Football Playoff committee. 

We'll get the first committee rankings on Tuesday night, and that'll set the tone for what should be a very fun weekend of games, headlined by six matchups involving top 10 teams that have something to prove. The most unique element of the College Football Playoff is the need for style points, as not all wins are created equal. And for teams that have already played their toughest competition, they have to keep the gas pedal down to keep the committee impressed. 

Then there are the conference championship game implications, with plenty still to be sorted out in the Big Ten, SEC, ACC and Big 12. Chaos reigns in the ACC, especially after Georgia Tech's loss last week, while the Big 12 once again has a million scenarios in play, as is a seemingly annual occurrence. The SEC has two undefeated teams in conference play in Texas A&M and Alabama, but both still have some big games to navigate on their schedule, including this week. The Big Ten title race is much simpler, as Ohio State and Indiana have cleared an apparent path to a showdown in Indianapolis, but they still need to take care of business to ensure that No. 1 vs. No. 2 battle happens. 

All of that sets the table for an exciting Week 11, and here are our predictions for the six biggest games on the schedule for Saturday. 

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Chip Patterson

No. 8 BYU at No. 9 Texas Tech

The only top-10 battle in the country will take place in Lubbock where undefeated BYU takes on its biggest test of the season against Texas Tech. This game figures to be decided in the trenches, where both teams have had the advantage on most opponents all season. 

BYU has leaned on teams with one of the nation's best rushing attacks, as it averages 5.4 yards per carry and 216 rushings yards per game. LJ Martin and Bear Bachmeier present a difficult problem for opposing defenses attacking downhill and challenge opponents' physicality and desire to hit for all 60 minutes, but they've yet to face a defense quite like Texas Tech. 

The Red Raiders lead the nation in rush defense, allowing just 74 yards per game and 2.4 yards per carry. Not having Skyler Gill-Howard in the middle anymore has weakened them a touch, and we saw last week Kansas State had the most success of any opponent all season (126 yards and two TDs on 4.2 yard per carry) with an offense that features a running QB. Still, they will make life difficult for BYU up front and whichever of the BYU offensive line and the Texas Tech defensive line win more consistently will likely determine this football game. 

Texas Tech's performance against K-State impressed me. I thought that could be an upset spot and while it took some time for the offense to get going, they opened things up late and the defense got big stops when they needed them to put the game on ice. I think this game might look a lot like that one, with BYU finding some success on the ground but struggling to hit the kinds of explosives in the run game. Over 60 minutes, I think the Red Raiders pull clear and move back on top of the Big 12 standings. PICK: Texas Tech 34-27 over BYU

No. 2 Indiana at Penn State

Penn State comes home after giving everything it had in Columbus and it simply not being enough, and will be greeted by an Indiana team that's handing out beatdowns to the rest of the Big Ten like candy on Halloween. Credit to Terry Smith for getting the boys to battle as hard as they did against Ohio State and keeping it close for a half, but I'm concerned this Penn State squad might not have a whole lot in the tank for this game. 

The Hoosiers have won their last three games by an average of 40 points, as there are no signs that Curt Cignetti's group is satisfied with just getting through the weak points of their schedule. It is clear the message in that locker room is that the mentality each week has to be the same, especially after they almost got caught sleepwalking in Iowa City the week before going to Oregon. That message has been received, and there is no letup on either side of the ball for 60 minutes -- whether it's starters or backups in the game. 

Nothing I saw from Penn State last week indicates there's a sleeping giant about to get woken up in Happy Valley, and I expect this game to look a lot like most every Indiana game we've seen this season. It might be close after a quarter, but by the time the final whistle blows, Beaver Stadium will be mostly emptied out except for the folks in red that made the trip from Bloomington. PICK: Indiana 38-13 over Penn State

No. 5 Georgia at Mississippi State

The all-Bulldog battle in Starkville will be an interesting test for a Georgia team that has not looked dominant much at all this season. Georgia eked out a win over rival Florida last week and now faces a much-improved Mississippi State team on the road. 

Mississippi State finally picked up its first SEC win in two years in a thriller in Arkansas last week after coming up painfully short of upset wins over Tennessee, Florida and Texas. Now they'll get one more shot at taking down one of the SEC's big dogs (pun intended), and Georgia better be ready from the jump or it could find itself down quickly. 

Slow starts have been the M.O. for the Dawgs under Kirby Smart for some time, as they've had a propensity to play with their food early and then try to hit the gas in the second half after making adjustments. This season it's taken a little longer to get it in gear than they'd like when they do try to flip that switch, and the result has been some extremely stressful games.  

So far, Alabama is the only team to punish them for it, but Tennessee, Auburn, Ole Miss and Florida have all had early leads on Georgia only to watch the Dawgs nose in front by the final whistle. It would not surprise me at all if the cowbells are ringing like crazy early in Davis Wade Stadium as Mississippi State jumps out in front, but everything about how this season's gone for both teams says in the fourth quarter Georgia is going to find a way to escape with a win. PICK: Georgia 37-31 over Mississippi State

No. 6 Oregon at Iowa

Oregon's offense has not been as dynamic in Big Ten play as we've come to expect, and the Ducks will get quite the test on the road this week when they travel to Iowa City to face the Hawkeyes. 

As is always the case with Iowa teams under Kirk Ferentz, this year's Hawkeyes try to lean on defense and solid special teams. They're fourth in the country in points per game allowed (13.1), and for an Oregon offense that has had some struggles with consistently moving the ball, they're going to have to have one of their best performances of the season to avoid an upset loss on the road. 

This is an Iowa defense that held Indiana to its lowest scoring output of the season (20 points) and they are among the best in the country at limiting explosives. The Hawkeyes have allowed the second-fewest plays of 10+ yards (56) in the nation, tied with Ohio State and Oregon. With big plays at a premium in this game, it'll come down to sustaining drives and, perhaps, which defense can create a critical turnover or two. 

It's hard to know how much to take away from Oregon's 28-7 win against Wisconsin in terrible weather, but going on the road to Iowa City in November is no easy task. There's a reason this line is a short 5.5 and it certainly feels like the Ducks are going to have to prove their bonafides in their new conference by winning an old-school Big Ten kind of game where points are hard to come by. PICK: Oregon 20-16 over Iowa

Watch Oregon vs. Iowa live Saturday at 3:30 p.m. ET on CBS and streaming live on CBSSports.com, the CBS Sports App and Paramount+ Premium.

No. 3 Texas A&M at No. 19 Missouri

Beau Pribula's injury put a bit of a damper on the excitement for this game, but Matt Zollers played pretty well after being thrust into action against Vanderbilt, and Eli Drinkwitz had a bye week to get him up to speed and adjust the offense to his strengths. 

That latter point will present the biggest challenge to Texas A&M, as they'll be flying a bit blind into this one. Based on what we saw in Nashville, Zollers won't be near the rushing threat Pribula was, but the Tigers might open things up more in the passing game. The Aggies won't have much in the way of tape to figure out exactly what Mizzou will want to do in key situations with Zollers under center, and they'll have to be nimble with their game plan and ready to make necessary adjustments if the Tigers look a bit different than what they prepared for. 

On offense, the Aggies have been lighting opponents up all season, scoring 31+ in all but one game. Despite losing Le'Veon Moss against Florida, the rushing attack hasn't skipped a beat and Marcel Reed has been spectacular as both a passer and runner this season. 

They will present the biggest test for this Mizzou defense yet, as the Tigers have been excellent on defense this season but have also benefitted a bit from playing some teams that are happy to grind it out in a slugfest. The Aggies will want to push the tempo and if Mizzou opens up the passing game a bit more with Zollers, I could see this game being more of a shootout. I won't be surprised if there's some early success from the Mizzou offense coming off the bye with a new QB, but I do expect Texas A&M to be able to keep pace and eventually pull ahead to remain unbeaten. PICK: Texas A&M 34-27 over Missouri

LSU at No. 4 Alabama

How much did LSU's players dislike Brian Kelly? That's what I'm excited to find out this week. The Tigers have looked flat on offense all year and the vibes in Baton Rouge finally got rotten enough that Kelly was ousted despite his massive buyout. Now the Tigers turn things over to Frank Wilson in the interim and his first task is to go into Tuscaloosa and face a Crimson Tide team that is undefeated in SEC play and fresh off a bye week. 

Aside from the opening loss to Florida State that looks weirder and weirder each week, the Alabama offense has been able to score on everyone, and if the LSU defense can't get back to the form they showed early in the year, they'll be in trouble. I'm curious to know how much of that was a team that just didn't believe in what their coach was preaching and how much of it is just a team that maybe got figured out.

They will need the offense to show something they haven't been able to all season, because Alabama is going to put 24+ points on the board, even if the Tigers play well on the defensive side of the ball. Garrett Nussmeier has taken a beating this year, and the LSU line is going to need to find a way to control the line of scrimmage to give them a chance. We haven't seen that this year, but a coaching change can sometimes light a fire and bring the best out of a group. 

If this game were in Baton Rouge, you could talk me into the Tide being on upset alert. They have been far more gettable on the road this year, with three one-score wins and the FSU loss. At home? It's been a very different story. Alabama's been a buzzsaw at Bryant-Denny, winning all four games by at least two touchdowns -- including visits from Vanderbilt and Tennessee. I think this will be tight at the half, but Ty Simpson and company will just be too much for LSU's offense to keep up with for four quarters. PICK: Alabama 33-24 over LSU