The Six Pack: Picks for Oklahoma vs. Ole Miss, Texas A&M vs. LSU and Tom Fornelli's lock for Week 9

We're at the point of the college football season where teams are who they are. Sure, there are rare cases where you see mediocre teams level up, or great teams fall apart, but for the most part, we know who's who in the zoo.

That team that's struggled to block all year? Yeah, they're probably not going to figure it out this week. The quarterback who has struggled against the blitz? He will continue to struggle against the blitz.

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In theory, it makes it easier to figure out how matchups will play out. In reality, the folks setting the lines know all of this stuff, too. Still, there are a few games this week on the board I'm feeling confident about, which isn't something I've been able to say much this season. I mean, the results in this column speak for themselves.

Games of the Week

No. 8 Ole Miss at No. 13 Oklahoma: When you think of Ole Miss' offense, you don't typically think of the team's rushing attack first because Lane Kiffin and company have done such a great job of scheming explosive plays in the passing attack during their tenure. This season has been no exception. The Rebels' offense ranks 19th nationally in explosive pass rate. The rushing attack ranks 77th in explosive rate, but while it's not ripping off huge chunks, it's been something the Rebels have routinely relied on to move the ball.

In their first six games, all of which were wins, Ole Miss averaged 204 rushing yards per game. Last week, Georgia took it away. Ole Miss rushed for 88 yards and only 3.7 yards per carry. It lost. Now, some of that was Ole Miss not throwing often, but when you look under the hood, it's not difficult to see that the Rebels' worst games have all come when they had their lowest EPA per rush efforts.

This week, they're facing an Oklahoma defense that ranks fifth nationally in EPA per rush allowed and second in success rate against the run. Honestly, Oklahoma's defense is great at everything. It's much better than the Georgia unit Ole Miss faced last week, and being at home, I suspect the Oklahoma defense will do a better job of slowing Ole Miss down than any other team. The fact that this is Ole Miss' second consecutive road game won't help matters for the Rebels, either.

Offensively, Oklahoma has not been nearly as impressive. Essentially, the Sooners' offense is "Mateer or bust." He either makes it happen or he doesn't. This feels like a matchup where Mateer can make it happen enough to get the Sooners what they need, and it also feels like a game where Oklahoma's defense can earn the offense some short field opportunities. For all the Sooners' struggles on offense, when they get in scoring range, they finish drives in the end zone frequently. The Pick: Oklahoma -4.5 (-115) at Fanduel

No. 3 Texas A&M at No. 20 LSU: Earlier, when I wrote about a team that hasn't been able to block anybody all season, and won't learn how to block, LSU was most definitely a team I had in mind. When LSU's offense got off to a slow start to the season, there were plenty of available excuses. They began the year on the road against Clemson and were replacing four starters on the offensive line. You figured that as the competition eased a bit and those guys gained experience, they'd figure it out.

Even if we remove Clemson from the equation, LSU's offensive line hasn't figured out anything other than how to let a defender get past them in new and sometimes exciting ways. Garrett Nussmeier has been under fire all season long and looks like a soldier who has been at war for too long. Now the Tigers are facing yet another excellent defense in A&M, and I don't think being at home in Tiger Stadium at night will be enough to overcome the reality of the situation.

Defensively, the Tigers are good enough to keep them in games, but at some point, the dam will burst. It would not surprise me if that point was this weekend, because this is an Aggies offense that's not easy to deal with. They aren't truly elite at anything, but they're good at everything, and those teams are tough to stop. You look to take one thing away, and they just do the other thing.

These are the things you can do when you have a good offensive line, and A&M's is one of the best in the country. Marcel Reed has taken steps forward as a passer, but a big reason why is that he rarely finds himself under duress while in the pocket. The few times he is, he's able to escape because he's one of the best scramblers in the country. And that's another thing that will break a defense's will. When you do everything right to get the stop and then the QB just takes off and picks up the first down, it's mentally deflating.

I would never rule out LSU at home. It's certainly possible the Tigers' defense can force a bunch of turnovers and make this game a rock fight that allows the offense to squeeze just enough points to win, but that outcome isn't nearly as likely as the Aggies winning. The Pick: Texas A&M -2.5 (-115) at DraftKings

Lock of the Week

No. 11 BYU at Iowa State: Iowa State comes into this game on a two-game losing streak, which shouldn't come as much of a surprise. It's hard to win games when you suffer as many injuries as this team has on both defense and special teams. If you didn't know, the Cyclones have spent games without a kicker in recent weeks, and they've lost multiple cornerbacks to injury. Last year, this team dealt with injuries to every linebacker within 100 square miles of Ames, Iowa, but was able to overcome them.

Well, no shade to linebackers, but in this era of football, it's easier to scheme around your linebackers than it is your corners.

What's truly concerning about this matchup in particular is what happened a couple of games ago. Iowa State gave up 260 yards on the ground against Cincinnati in a 38-30 loss. While they aren't exactly the same, there are a lot of similarities between the Bearcats' offense and the BYU offense the Clones will face here.

BYU ranks sixth nationally in EPA per rush and ninth in explosive rush rate. They also run the ball a lot, as their 60.8% rush rate is the ninth-highest rate in the country. I expect the Cougars will find success running the ball here, even if I do worry about a possible letdown coming off last week's Holy War win against Utah. The Pick: BYU +3 (-112) at DraftKings

Over of the Week

Baylor at No. 21 Cincinnati: I'm not sure there's a more slept-on team in the country right now than the Cincinnati Bearcats. Like BYU, they're undefeated in the Big 12, and if not for one bad decision by Brendan Sorsby late in the season-opener against Nebraska, the Bearcats might be undefeated period. Well, Sorsby hasn't made a mistake since and is putting up exceptional numbers that nobody is paying attention to.

My thought here is that Cincinnati's offensive prowess will once again be on display against Baylor because everybody's offensive prowess is on display against Baylor. You know that Auburn offense that hasn't cracked 20 points in SEC play this season? It put up 38 against Baylor! The only team Baylor has held below 27 points this season is Samford. FBS opponents are averaging 35.5 points per game against the Bears.

The Bears' only defense is their offense. It's not as explosive or efficient as Cincinnati's has been, but that's mostly because the Bears don't run the ball as effectively. They throw it pretty dang well, and Cincinnati's defense ranks 103rd nationally in EPA per dropback. The Pick: Over 66.5 (-115) at DraftKings

MACtion of the Week

UMass at Central Michigan: Sometimes it's as simple as finding the worst team in the world and betting against them. Perhaps UMass isn't the worst team in the world, but it's the worst team in the FBS, and I can't help but wonder about its mental state right now. Last week, the Minutemen held a 21-20 lead over Buffalo in the fourth quarter but missed a field goal that would've given them a 24-20 lead. They recovered by getting an interception with 59 seconds left in the game.

The first win of the season was so close they could taste it.

The Minutemen were then hit with an unsportsmanlike conduct penalty that put them in second-and-20. The next thing you knew, it was fourth-and-24 at the UMass 5-yard line, and only 10 seconds had come off the clock. You know what happened next. They punted, and the Bulls went 50 yards in 20 seconds for the game-winning touchdown.

Can UMass get off the mat after that? I don't know. Even if they do, I don't know if they can hang with the Chippewas, who look like one of the better teams in the MAC this season. The Pick: Central Michigan -15.5 (-115) at Fanduel

Upset of the Week

Ball State at Northern Illinois: Let's stay in the MAC a little longer so we can fade a favorite that hasn't done a whole lot to deserve being favored this year. It's one thing when a MAC team struggles in nonconference play, because they're often playing much stronger programs. For instance, Miami (Ohio) started the season with losses to Wisconsin, Rutgers and UNLV, getting outscored 103-55, but they're 3-0 in MAC play and have outscored opponents 89-51.

One of those opponents was Northern Illinois, which started the season slowly and has continued moving slowly. The Huskies are winless in MAC play, including a loss to an Eastern Michigan squad that hasn't looked very good itself. Yes, they're home here, but if you were to ask the Huskies what the one thing they do well is, I don't know that they'd have an answer for you. It used to be running the football, but they've been worse in the MAC than they were coming in! Don't get me wrong. I don't look at Ball State as some kind of juggernaut being slept on, but that's an awfully big price on the Cardinals considering how Northern Illinois has looked all season. After all, the Cardinals beat the Ohio team that beat Northern by 27 last week. The Pick: Ball State (+185) at DraftKings

SportsLine's proven computer model has simulated every Week 9 college football game 10,000 times. Visit SportsLine now to see all the picks, all from the model that is 42-30 since the beginning of last season on top-rated money-line and over/under picks.