If you keep your ear close to the ground in the South this weekend, you should be able to feel tremors emanating from Oxford, Mississippi, upon Lane Kiffin's return to Ole Miss.
One of the 2026 college football season's most-anticipated September matchups is here to headline Week 3 as seventh-ranked LSU and No. 8 Ole Miss crunch pads in the SEC. SMU vs. Louisville is another top-25 tilt this weekend, along with Houston vs. Texas Tech on Friday night. The winner of that one in Lubbock takes the early poll position alongside BYU in the Big 12.
We've made our picks for the week's eight most interesting games, including a couple involving teams just outside of the national rankings.
Season results: Brad Crawford (14-1 straight, 10-4-1 ATS), Chris Hummer (12-3 straight, 5-9-1 ATS)
Both of us nailed the Texas win over Ohio State, though it did not look like an accurate pick for three quarters. I felt good about Mississippi State's chances on the road against Minnesota with Kamari Taylor at quarterback, and that cashed, but the same could not be said for Oklahoma's trip to Michigan. The Sooners still have major offensive issues that don't appear to be resolved, though some of that has to do with the Wolverines' fierce front and talented secondary.
All odds via FanDuel.
No. 5 Miami (-22.5) at Wake Forest -- Friday
Hummer (Wake Forest +22.5): Miami's been a buzzsaw so far this year, but I think there's decent value with Wake Forest in this matchup. The Demon Deacons have shown the ability to score this season, averaging 38 points per game, and 10 starters return to a team that won nine games last season. The one thing that gives me pause is the Wake secondary. Miami is the most explosive passing offense in the FBS, and Wake has given up 243 passing yards per game so far, including 329 last week against Purdue. But Wake Forest scores enough to cover at home on a Friday night. … Miami 42, Wake Forest 21.
Crawford (Wake Forest +22.5): Picking a cover from the Demon Deacons here is dangerous given the Hurricanes' electric start to the season, but at some point, Miami will find itself in an unexpected competitive game by halftime. It may or may not happen this week, but Wake Forest quarterback Gio Lopez, a transfer from UNC, looks more comfortable in his new scheme and hasn't turned it over. Yet. He'll need to help this offense produce a couple of touchdown drives to stay within the number because you know Miami is coming into town to score points. Hurricanes cover late. ... Miami 38, Wake Forest 17.
No. 22 Houston at No. 13 Texas Tech (-8.5) -- Friday
Hummer (Houston +8.5): On paper, this is a pretty easy cover in Houston's favor. The Cougars even looked more impressive than Texas Tech against a common opponent in Oregon State -- both won by double-digits, but Houston had 533 yards compared to just 352 for Texas Tech in the win. But what I wonder with the Cougars is how they'll perform offensively when the Red Raiders take away the run. Houston's offense is predicated on pounding the football, and Texas Tech's front seven is as good as any in college football. Houston, which actually has the top-ranked rushing defense early this season, will be tested against a high-flying Red Raiders passing attack. There is legitimate potential for upset in this one. But I think Texas Tech does just enough at home to squeak out a victory. … Texas Tech 27, Houston 24.
Crawford (Houston +8.5): I've seen enough from the Texas Tech offense through two games to form a strong opinion that this unit is not as explosive as it was last season, despite much of the same talent outside of the quarterback switch. The addition of Tommy Castellanos as a package threat doesn't do much for me. My biggest concern is the run game, which averages just 3.8 yards per carry. There's time to get it together, but the Red Raiders' stranglehold on the Big 12 is already starting to slip. This was almost an outright upset pick for me. ... Texas Tech 31, Houston 24.
Florida (-2.5) at Auburn
Hummer (Florida -2.5): I don't think this game sets up well for Auburn. Florida's defensive front is a strength, and the Tigers looked horrendous up front against Baylor, surrendering 22 pressures. And until I see it against high-level SEC competition, I'm going to have questions about Byrum Brown, who's been just OK this year since transferring in from South Florida. Give me the Gators on the road to make a statement. … Florida 27, Auburn 20.
Crawford (Florida -2.5): Jon Sumrall and long-time buddy Alex Golesh both want it known this week that there's going to be no friendly banter between the hashes when these teams get together Saturday night at Jordan-Hare. This should be one of the SEC's most competitive games of the weekend, and the right team is favored here since the Gators have the best player on the field -- running back Jadan Baugh. The junior is averaging 10.6 yards per carry and has five touchdowns with consecutive 100-yard outings. Give him No. 3 in Week 3. ... Florida 26, Auburn 23.
Florida State at No. 10 Alabama (-20.5)
Hummer (Florida State +20.5): Maybe Alabama dominates and manages to cover that line. But I don't think the Tide are three touchdowns better than Florida State. The Seminoles have the benefit of coming off a bye, and their run game, led by Ousmane Kromah, can slow the game down and keep it somewhat in check. Could it get out of control? Absolutely. The Tide has an elite run defense and a pass rush that could give a shaky FSU O-line trouble. But the value is with FSU at that number. The Seminoles take away a still suspect Tide run game and score enough to cover. … Alabama 31, Florida State 13.
Crawford (Florida State +20.5): Picking a side here comes down to this -- how much life do the Seminoles have left in them under Mike Norvell? Will FSU go into Tuscaloosa and get blitzed this weekend, or is this a team that will fight, scratch and claw its way to a competitive finish? Last season's win over Alabama feels so long ago for the Seminoles. FSU's 2-8 against Power Four teams since clocking the Crimson Tide, which is why Norvell's seat continues to warm. This is still a team with a pulse, for now, after losing close to SMU. Fading Alabama bit me last week, but I'll try it again. ... Alabama 35, Florida State 17.
Michigan State at No. 3 Notre Dame (-29.5)
Hummer (Michigan State +29.5): This will be a good test of Notre Dame's somewhat underwhelming rushing attack. The Irish are averaging just 3.58 yards per carry so far, and they'll be up against a Michigan State defense that's been just OK in that area. This is the type of game Notre Dame's rushing attack should dominate. If it doesn't, that's a bad sign long term. As for the game itself, Michigan State could have a hard time keeping up. The Spartans rank just 90th nationally in yards per play. The question will be how long MSU, which leads the Power Four in time of possession, can keep the ball. I think it's long enough to cover. … Notre Dame 42, Michigan State 13.
Crawford (Notre Dame -29.5): Notre Dame's physicality should overwhelm Michigan State, a team that hasn't yet faced an offense with this combination of power, speed and efficiency. The Irish should control the line of scrimmage, create explosive plays off play-action and wear down the Spartans before delivering the knockout punch in the second half -- as they did against Wisconsin in the opener. With Notre Dame's defense playing at an elite level, this has blowout potential. The number is substantial, but the talent gap is wider. Notre Dame wins and covers. ... Notre Dame 41, Michigan State 7.
Mississippi State at South Carolina (-3.5)
Hummer (South Carolina -3.5): This is a big test for the Gamecocks, who enter the game wondering if standout edge rusher Dylan Stewart and top tackle Jacarrius Peak will return to action. The good news for South Carolina, at least along the offensive line, is that the Bulldogs are generating the second-lowest pressure rate in the SEC. The Bulldogs play a lot of man coverage, which will put the onus on an untested group of South Carolina wide receivers to get open. On the other side of the ball, the Gamecocks have to avoid busts. The Bulldogs have the fastest wide receiver group in the country and a quarterback, Kamario Taylor, who can find them deep. This is a big moment for Shane Beamer. His team responds. … South Carolina 31, Mississippi State 27.
Crawford (South Carolina -3.5): This one's being billed as the Kamario Taylor vs. LaNorris Sellers Show, but truthfully, the offense that produces the most highlight-worthy plays from its backfield talent wins this one. Mississippi State is coming off a convincing win at Minnesota, and the Gamecocks haven't yet been tested. Saturday afternoon is potentially tenure-defining for Shane Beamer, by the way. He needs this one. Eight of the Gamecocks' 10 wins in this series have come in the last nine meetings since 2000. It's a one-sided matchup recently, and this one feels like a must-win for South Carolina with the treacherous portion of the SEC slate soon to begin. ... South Carolina 31, Mississippi State 24.
No. 16 SMU at No. 23 Louisville (-2.5)
Hummer (SMU +2.5): The ACC isn't doing SMU many favors early this year with September trips to Florida State and Louisville. The Mustangs are going to have to do a few things well to win this one: 1. Run the ball. SMU leads the FBS with 442 passing yards per game. But in order to slow down Louisville's excellent pass rush, the Mustangs need to do better than the 4.51 yards per carry they're averaging, especially against a pedestrian run defense. 2. Stop turning over the football. The Mustangs did it four times against FSU, nearly costing them the game. Louisville, for its part, hasn't turned the ball over this year. I think SMU is better in both areas, and Kevin Jennings, who's been awesome against the Cardinals in two career starts, makes the difference. … SMU 34, Louisville 31.
Crawford (SMU +2.5): Until SMU proves otherwise, I'm sticking with my second projected ACC CFP team and rolling with the Mustangs outright on the road. SMU's Kevin Jennings has thrown for 767 yards and eight touchdowns this season, shouldering the load offensively. Louisville's only loss was a 41-38 setback to Ole Miss in the opener, with two transfers -- QB Lincoln Kienholz and WR Tre Richardson -- making quite a splash thus far. It's time the Cardinals get Isaac Brown more involved with the game plan if they want to win this one at home and make their early move in the ACC. ... SMU 28, Louisville 27.
No. 7 LSU (-3.5) at No. 8 Ole Miss
Hummer (Ole Miss +3.5): I thought the entire offseason that Ole Miss would win this game. It means more to the Rebels players. That environment in Oxford will be venomous toward the Tigers. But then I watched LSU the first two weeks. The Tigers are equipped to hit at Ole Miss' weaknesses. They have an elite pass rusher, which could be a problem for the Rebels' O-line, which struggled at times against Louisville. They have speed at receiver, which will challenge the Rebels' secondary, which busted far too often against the Cardinals. Most importantly, LSU has an elite quarterback in Sam Leavitt, capable of handling the environment in Oxford. It's hard to pick against the best player in the game -- that's Trinidad Chambliss -- but LSU gets it done thanks to a last-second field goal. … LSU 27, Ole Miss 24.
Crawford (LSU -3.5): Take away all of the hoopla involving Lane Kiffin's return to Oxford, and what remains? An elite (LSU) defense against an elite (Ole Miss) offense. That's the determining matchup in this one. Pete Golding has harped on his secondary for consecutive weeks, hoping to finalize his five-man rotation, while Kiffin just wants his offense to stop giving away possessions. Defense travels, and the Rebels are going to be so jazzed up for this one that an enormous amount of pressure is on the home team. ... LSU 34, Ole Miss 27.
