College football is back, which means Chris Hummer and I are once again putting our reputations — and sometimes questionable decision-making -- on the line every week.
This tradition dates back a decade to our days together at 247Sports, where we learned quickly that predicting results against the spread can humble anyone by Saturday night. The format remains simple: We'll select the biggest games on the schedule each week, make our picks against the number and explain where the value lies.
We'll also keep a running tally throughout the season, celebrating the winners and publicly documenting every bad beat, missed read and selection we immediately regret.
There will be disagreements, upsets and inevitable overreactions. That is part of the fun. The goal is profitability. The reality is accountability. Either way, every pick will be here for everyone to judge.
All odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
North Carolina v. TCU (-7.5)
Hummer (TCU -7.5): It's easy to dunk on North Carolina after last season, but I do think the Tar Heels can present value to betters this year. They got better as the 2025 campaign went along, and there's more talent on the roster than people think. All that said, give me TCU to win and cover. I know exactly what I'm getting from TCU: an experienced roster with a clear identity on both sides of the ball. The final result won't be as one-sided as last year's 48-14 TCU win, but the Horned Frogs do enough to cover. … TCU 31, North Carolina 20.
Crawford (TCU -7.5): International games often produce sluggish starts, communication issues and unexpected mistakes. Those concerns are magnified in an offense breaking in a new centerpiece. That's the case on both sides, with Harvard transfer Jaden Craig operating the Horned Frogs and Billy Edwards at the controls for the Tar Heels. Bobby Petrino will eventually get North Carolina moving, but asking everything to click immediately feels ambitious. TCU's defense should control the game's tempo and perhaps capitalize on UNC's early growing pains. ... TCU 31, North Carolina 17.
NC State at Virginia (-5.5)
Hummer (NC State +5.5): This is a heck of an ACC opener between a pair of teams with conference championship aspirations. Recent history with this game hasn't been kind to Virginia. The Wolfpack have won the last four in this series dating back to 2018, and they're the team with a high-level QB returning in CJ Bailey. That's where I see the value: the experience for NC State on offense and in the secondary. Winning on the road in Week 1 is tough, but I think the Wolfpack are set up to do so. … NC State 24, Virginia 21.
Crawford (NC State +5.5): The Wolfpack will be a trendy pick here on the moneyline against the Cavaliers, but I'm hesitant. Virginia's the only team in the ACC graced with upperclassmen starters at every position, and that means something coming off a potentially program-changing campaign. Not all of those starters return, but the belief inside the program is that Virginia can get back to the ACC's upper tier in 2026. That said, the best player on the field is Bailey, and the outcome will be on his shoulders. ... NC State 27, Virginia 26.
Hawaii at Stanford (-5.5)
Hummer (Hawaii +5.5): Let's reintroduce the world to Davis Warren, who will be Stanford's starting QB. You'll remember Warren from his time as Michigan's starter in 2024, a walk-on-to QB1 story that captured the attention of many — even if the results (5.7 YPA, a negative TD-to-INT ratio) were poor. But Warren is entering 2026 with a positive offensive context around him. Four returning offensive linemen, a standout running back (Micah Ford) and a head coach who's coming straight out of the NFL in Tavita Pritchard. Hawaii will keep this game close -- Micah Alejado is one of the top returning quarterbacks in the Group of Six -- but Stanford manages to pull this out. … Stanford 27, Hawaii 24.
Crawford (Stanford -5.5): Many of you will say my Power Four bias is showing, but if Stanford doesn't win this one, the first victory for this new staff might not come until October. Hawaii has a chance at double-digit wins this season if Alejado has the year most are expecting in the Mountain West. I wasn't kind to Stanford in last month's game-by-game predictions for every ACC team, but this was one of the projected wins. ... Stanford 31, Hawaii 24.
Memphis at UNLV (-5.5)
Hummer (UNLV -5.5): It won't get as much attention as the two Power Four vs. Power Four games on this list, but this may be the best matchup of the week between a pair of Group of Six playoff hopefuls. Memphis is a team of big question marks. You trust the staff with Charles Huff taking over as head coach, but the Tigers return just one starter and brought in 53 transfers. UNLV is more of a known commodity. Dan Mullen led the Rebels to 10 wins last season, and at least some experience (seven total starters) return from that team. Memphis will get better as the season goes along. I just like the idea of continuity -- and home field -- in Week 0. … UNLV 34, Memphis 27.
Crawford (UNLV -5.5): Since the Rebels are my Group of Six College Football Playoff pick this season, I'll be watching this one closely Saturday night. A Group of Six team's margin for error is virtually nonexistent when it comes to the CFP. A loss immediately forces the Rebels to chase style points and hope for outside help the rest of the way. Win convincingly, however, and UNLV begins building the résumé and national credibility necessary to remain in the selection committee's conversation. ... UNLV 35, Memphis 24.
Predicting Power Four conference winners
Hummer and I were nearly unanimous across the board, besides a slight difference of opinion within the SEC. If you missed our preseason bowl projections and College Football Playoff picks, you can find them here.
ACC
Hummer (Miami -150): Miami is the deepest and most talented team in the ACC. It's as simple as that. The Hurricanes -- as long as their new-look o-line holds up -- don't really have any weaknesses. The schedule also sets up incredibly well for Miami in conference play, with the only really difficult road game coming against Clemson. There are draft picks scattered across Miami's two-deep. They're by far the most talented team in the ACC.
Crawford (Miami -150): AP voters will soon regret not slotting the Hurricanes inside the top five this season. The Hurricanes are loaded at the line of scrimmage, explosive at the skill positions and experienced enough on defense to handle inevitable adversity. Darian Mensah gives Miami a proven distributor who does not need to force the action with Malachi Toney and Mark Fletcher surrounding him. The road game at Notre Dame is the only danger area, and that comes in the nonconference. Cristobal has accumulated championship-level talent. This is the season the Hurricanes turn potential into weekly dominance at last.
Big Ten
Hummer (Oregon +270): The three teams atop the Big Ten are loaded, but there just aren't any holes in Eugene. The Ducks have a first-round quarterback prospect, elite skill players, a good offensive line and arguably the best front seven in college football. The schedule isn't easy -- road games at USC and Ohio State along with home matchups with Michigan and Washington -- but Oregon's shown the ability to navigate the regular season with relative ease the last two years. The most talented Oregon team of its Big Ten era wins the league.
Crawford (Oregon +270): The Ducks have one of the league's most complete rosters, beginning with a veteran-laden defense built to survive the weekly grind. The Ducks have enough experience, speed and depth at every level to dictate games, while Dante Moore gives this offense a proven quarterback capable of delivering championship-level play. Oregon should not need Moore to carry the roster every Saturday, but he can win games when necessary. The concern is obvious: Lanning is replacing both coordinators, and that may create early turbulence.
SEC
Hummer (Texas +340): This is, on paper, the most talented team the Longhorns have fielded since the 2000s. There are first-round talents splashed across the depth chart, and you could argue the Longhorns upgraded at every position on their roster. Are there a few concerns for Texas entering the year? Sure. The offensive line needs to play to its talent, losing a starting linebacker two weeks before the season isn't ideal and Arch Manning needs to play like an All-American for Texas to reach its ceiling. But every roster has some questions this time of year, and the talent in Austin is undeniable.
Crawford (Georgia +270): The Longhorns could be the SEC's best team and not even reach the league title game. That's how challenging this year's slate will be. That's part of the reason I'll take the Bulldogs, who have a considerably more favorable schedule, and Kirby Smart hasn't lost to Texas. Both of these squads will get to the CFP, but I'm more comfortable going with Georgia to win the league title right now.
Big 12
Hummer (-105 Texas Tech): Texas Tech won the Big 12 with relative ease last season despite questionable quarterback play. I don't see why that would change now. The Red Raiders are loaded. They have one of the best defensive lines and linebacker units in the entire country, an experienced o-line and plenty of skill talent around Will Hammond at quarterback. The schedule sets up incredibly well, too, avoiding both BYU and Utah in the regular season.
Crawford (-105 Texas Tech): You'll get more bang for your buck going with BYU (+500), Utah (+900) or even Houston (+1500), but there's a reason the Red Raiders are nearly at even odds to win another conference title. The roster is better than any other program in the league, and no league matchup should give Joey McGuire and his coaching staff pause. Keeping Hammond healthy is paramount. The Red Raiders should have no issues with that given offensive line talent and a three-headed monstrous backfield.
