College football odds, picks: Washington vs. Michigan, Michigan State vs. Indiana lead underrated Week 8 games

Week 8 of the college football season looks like one of the best of the year on paper. We have a number of top 25 teams going head-to-head and even more ranked squads headed out on the road in conference for big tests. 

Those games will rightfully get the most attention and we've got picks for them all, but as I point out every week, there are opportunities for winners all over the college football slate beyond the marquee matchups. This week is Circle the Wagons Saturday for me, as I got smoked at the books last week to the tune of a 1-9 record that was only salvaged by a dicey Maryland cover. 

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We went back to the film room to try to figure out what went wrong and how to get back on the right side this week. It's back to basics this week, hunting out live dogs and some totals that feel ripe for the picking, as our climb back to respectability begins for the back half of the season. 

Last week: 1-9
Season total: 30-38

Washington vs. Michigan

This is a big game for Sherrone Moore, whose seat is getting warmer with every loss, but nothing I've seen from him as coach indicates he will suddenly take the training wheels off Bryce Underwood and see what this offense can fully do. I expect another fairly conservative game plan from Moore at home against a game Washington team that has gotten back on track after the Ohio State loss. The Huskies, meanwhile, haven't been great offensively against high-level competition this season. Their best games have been against Rutgers and Washington State, and I think the Michigan defense is a healthy step or two up from those teams. This game feels like it lands in the 20s for both sides. I can see either team winning this, but I feel pretty good about it coming in under the number. Pick: Under 50.5

Eastern Michigan vs. Miami (OH)

Yes, I'm back in the saddle with more MACtion, and yes I am once again asking you to back an Eastern Michigan team that lost to Long Island at one point this season. Still, 12.5 points is a lot for Miami to cover -- it has won by that many once, last week's 20-7 victory over Akron. Eastern Michigan, meanwhile, has kept it inside this number against all three MAC opponents, and while this might not be a fun game to sweat, I think the Eagles are the right side. Pick: Eastern Michigan +12.5

UConn vs. Boston College 

Boston College is having a dreadful season, and it might get worse. It has given up 28 or more points to every FBS opponent it has played. While all have been Power Four teams, that includes matchups with Stanford (away) and Cal (home). UConn, meanwhile, has steadied the ship and looks poised to make another run at a bowl game at 4-2, as Joe Fagnano and company have started to hit their stride offensively. They have picked a good time to find a rhythm, and I don't see this BC defense being the group to stop them. Take the Huskies on the road. Pick: UConn +1.5

Purdue vs. Northwestern

Northwestern just picked up its biggest win in a long time, putting the final nail in James Franklin's coffin in Happy Valley. Now it heads back to the lake to host a Purdue team that has been competitive but is still looking for its first breakthrough win in the Big Ten under Barry Odom. I think the Boilermakers get it this week, with the Wildcats likely dealing with a bit of a letdown performance. Purdue's offense has been good all year, and while the defense is leaky, that's less of an issue against this Northwestern offense. Pick: Purdue +2.5

Michigan State at No. 3 Indiana

I'll be interested to see how Indiana comes out of this one after its big win over Oregon last week and Curt Cignetti just inking a huge extension. That was the game the Hoosiers had been waiting on for a long time, and now they have to go back home and host a woefully bad Michigan State team. The last time we saw them after a huge win -- beating down Illinois -- they got into a rock fight with Iowa and had to escape with a 20-15 win. I'll be interested to see if Indiana is more focused here. While I'm not sure it will dominate all phases en route to a cover, the one thing I do expect is that it shuts down the Spartans' offense. Aidan Chiles is expected to play, but I don't think it matters who is under center for Michigan State -- it is going to have a bad time against this excellent Hoosiers defense. Pick: Michigan State team total under 13.5

Wyoming vs. Air Force

Air Force's defense is unfathomably bad. It is at the bottom of the country in just about every stat and metric. The good news for the Falcons is their offense scores a lot too, so they stay in games, but as evidenced by last week's 51-48 loss to UNLV, they are not stopping anyone. Wyoming just played in a shootout with San Jose State, proving it will dance if you want to, and I expect another high-scoring affair here in Colorado Springs. Pick: Over 57.5

Northern Illinois vs. Ohio 

We will be picking Northern Illinois unders until morale improves. I left it out of the column last week and it smashed, and I won't make that mistake again. The Huskies would like to play every game 17-13 if they can, win or lose, and I expect another slog when they take a trip to face the Bobcats. Pick: Under 41.5

UNLV vs. Boise State

The Runnin' Rebels have been living a charmed existence in their first season under Dan Mullen. They've had a number of close calls and probably should have a loss or two, but they come into this showdown with Boise State at a perfect 6-0. The Broncos have been a bit out of sight, out of mind since their disastrous opener against a good USF squad, but they've taken care of business otherwise. I was a bit surprised by how big this line is and like UNLV at -12.5, but I feel best about this game going over. Neither of these defenses is very good, both offenses put up points in bunches, and both quarterbacks are willing to throw one to the other team to set up a score. Pick: Over 62.5

Hawaii vs. Colorado State

The Bows are just one win away from bowl eligibility and will have a great chance to get that sixth win in Fort Collins against a Colorado State team that's had some strange results this year. The Rams are favored after destroying Fresno State a week ago in a rather shocking performance, forcing four turnovers. I'm not sure that scoreline fully represents Colorado State suddenly being a high-end Mountain West team, and I'll happily take the candy with Hawaii. Pick: Hawaii +2.5

Georgia State vs. Georgia Southern 

As a Georgia State alum, it pains me to see how bad my Panthers are right now. A week after getting routed by App State, the Panthers head down the road to Statesboro for Modern Day Hate, and I don't think that's going to go well for the team from Atlanta. Their lone win this season is over Murray State, and they have yet to keep it within seven points against any FBS team -- the only time they didn't lose by double digits was a strange 14-7 loss to James Madison. The Eagles aren't a great Sun Belt team, but they are competent and have been solid at home. I'd love to be wrong here, but this is one to lay the points with Southern. Pick: Georgia Southern -6.5