College football line movements for Week 12, including No. 10 Texas at No. 5 Georgia

The two teams that played in last season's SEC Championship Game will square off for the third time in 13 months when the No. 5 Georgia Bulldogs and No. 10 Texas Longhorns reunite on Saturday at Sanford Stadium in Athens, Ga.

Last year, the Bulldogs beat the Longhorns twice: 30-15 on Oct. 19 in Austin, Texas, and then 22-19 in overtime in the SEC title game. This year, both teams cannot afford another loss if they hope to get back to the conference championship game. Georgia (8-1, 6-1 in SEC) already has lost to Alabama, while Texas (7-2, 4-1) has lost to Florida. 

In addition, the loser of Saturday's game will be in danger of missing the College Football Playoff. 

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Longhorns quarterback Arch Manning will start for the first time against the team he rejected in favor of Texas. In June 2022, the latest quarterback in the Manning family committed to the Longhorns, picking them over the Bulldogs and, to a lesser extent, Alabama. That decision comes full circle on Saturday.

Top sportsbooks have made Georgia a 6.5-point favorite over Texas. The line has risen slightly after opening at -5.

Is that line movement an overreaction or market correction? Here's a look at the Georgia-Texas point spread, as well as the line movement on the other three matchups featuring two teams in the CFP rankings and one other game with a big line change. All times Eastern.

No. 9 Notre Dame at No. 22 Pitt (noon)

Open: Notre Dame -11 
Current: Notre Dame -12.5

The line movement in favor of the Fighting Irish makes a lot of sense. They are on a roll, having won seven consecutive games by 26.1 points per game. They also are in the conversation for an at-large bid to the College Football Playoff, so style points are important to them, which can explain some of this money coming in on Notre Dame. Also, the Panthers have struggled to run the ball this year (104th in the country, at 124.2 yards per game), which eliminates one of the ways the Irish defense can be had.

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Texas State at Southern Miss (3:30 p.m.)

Open: Southern Miss -7 
Current: Southern Miss -3

This game features the biggest line movement of any of the Week 12 games, and there's an easy explanation: Golden Eagles quarterback Braylon Braxton left last week's game with a right knee injury but returned to throw what would end up becoming the game-winning touchdown pass. Braxton, the Sun Belt Conference preseason Offensive Player of the Year, is listed as probable for Saturday's game, but bettors don't seem to be believers. Southern Miss (7-2, 5-0), which is on a collision course to play James Madison in the conference title game, has much bigger games remaining. The Bobcats (3-6) are winless in conference.

No. 21 Iowa at No. 17 USC (3:30 p.m.)

Open: USC -5 
Current: USC -6.5

This line touched Trojans -7 briefly before dropping back down to below a touchdown. USC welcomes another Big Ten team from the midwest to the Coliseum, and the Trojans have excelled in those situations this season. They have clobbered Michigan State (45-31), Michigan (31-13) and Northwestern (38-17) in L.A. this year. If the Hawkeyes fall behind early, this game could have a similar result.

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No. 11 Oklahoma at No. 4 Alabama (3:30 p.m.)

Open: Alabama -6.5 
Current: Alabama -6

This line opened at some spots at Crimson Tide -7.5 but has fallen to less than a touchdown. This seems to be an overreaction to the Sooners' 33-27 victory last week at No. 14 Tennessee, but I have to admit that I haven't had a good read on Oklahoma this season. While the Sooners' defense has been elite, the offense has been average at best, ranking 64th in the country in scoring offense (28.9 points per game) and 77th in total offense (373.7 yards per game). That offense will face an Alabama defense coming off its best game of the year, giving up just three field goals to LSU.

No. 10 Texas at No. 5 Georgia (7:30 p.m.)

Open: Georgia -5 
Current: Georgia -6.5

Bettors don't seem to believe the Longhorns (7-2) are suddenly right because of one victory over Vanderbilt and have shifted this line to almost a touchdown. Remember, Texas has had four true road games this season, losing at both Ohio State and Florida and escaping with overtime victories over Kentucky and Mississippi State. Meanwhile, the Bulldogs are 35-1 in their last 36 games between the hedges and are coming off their most complete game of the season. Based on the betting, I don't get the sense that this line will rise to -7.