College football line movements for Week 11, including No. 7 BYU at No. 8 Texas Tech

The lead in the Big 12 will be on the line when the No. 7 BYU Cougars and No. 8 Texas Tech Red Raiders collide in a crucial matchup on Saturday at Jones AT&T Stadium in Lubbock. 

The Cougars (8-0, 5-0 in Big 12) sit atop the conference and are seeking back-to-back 9-0 starts for the first time in school history. Meanwhile, the Red Raiders (8-1, 5-1) are tied for second in the Big 12, with Cincinnati and are looking to end a 16-game losing streak against teams ranked in the top 10 of the AP Top 25.

The winner of Saturday's game will have an inside track to reaching the Big 12 Championship Game on Dec. 6 in Arlington, Texas, and move one step closer to a berth in the College Football Playoff. 

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Saturday's game may come down to Texas Tech's ability to generate turnovers. The Red Raiders lead the conference and are tied for second in the country in takeaways (20), but the Cougars have committed the fewest turnovers in the Big 12 (six) and lead the conference in turnover margin (+10).

Top sportsbooks have made Texas Tech a 10.5-point favorite over BYU. The line has risen slightly after opening at -10.

Is that line movement an overreaction or market correction? Here's a look at the BYU-Texas Tech point spread, as well as the line movement on the other two matchups featuring two top 25 teams in the CFP rankings and two other games with big line changes. All times Eastern.

No. 7 BYU at No. 8 Texas Tech (noon)

Open: Texas Tech -10 
Current: Texas Tech -10.5

The point spread for the game of the week has remained pretty steady from the start. Even the reports on Wednesday that Cougars running back LJ Martin is expected to play didn't drop this line into single digits. This is significant since A, the Red Raiders haven't been a double-digit favorite against a ranked team in the last 30 years, and B, BYU is just the fourth FBS team in the last 10 years to enter a conference game 8-0 or better as a double-digit underdog. Both teams have been bettors' best friends this season; Texas Tech is 7-2 against-the-spread, and BYU is 6-2 ATS.

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Bowling Green at Eastern Michigan (1 p.m.)

Open: Bowling Green -2 
Current: Eastern Michigan -2.5

This game features the biggest line move of the week, with Bowling Green (3-6, 1-4 in MAC) going from a small favorite to a small underdog. This seems like a market correction. The Falcons rank 124th in the country in total offense (304.9 yards per game) and 123rd in scoring offense (18.2 points per game), which prompted the firing of offensive coordinator Travis Partridge earlier this week. Bowling Green also played last week, while the Eagles are coming off a bye.

FIU at Middle Tennessee (3 p.m.)

Open: FIU -2.5 
Current: Middle Tennessee -1.5

Bettors prefer how the Blue Raiders (1-7, 0-4 in Conference USA) have played recently more than the Panthers (3-5, 2-3) have, making Middle Tennessee a small favorite after opening as a 2.5-point underdog. Though the Blue Raiders have lost five in a row, each of the last three games have been decided by three points or fewer. That includes a three-point defeat last week against Jacksonville State, which is currently tied atop the conference. On the other hand, the Panthers have lost four of their last five games, with the average point differential being 14.0 points a game. In addition Middle Tennessee has won nine of the last 10 meetings between the teams played in Tennessee.

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No. 3 Texas A&M at No. 22 Missouri (3:30 p.m.)

Open: Texas A&M -7 
Current: Texas A&M -7

Here's another point spread that has been pretty much spot-on from the start. This line has toggled between -7 and -6.5 all week and doesn't figure to move much if at all before kickoff since none of the players who are questionable are potential line-movers. This game will come down to whether the Tigers (6-2, 2-2 in SEC) can reignite their potent ground game after averaging just 3.1 yards per rush over the last two weeks. Missouri doesn't want to rely on true freshman quarterback Matt Zollers, who will be making his first college start, to drop back too many times against the defense that leads the country in sacks per game (4.00).

No. 9 Oregon at No. 20 Iowa (3:30 p.m.)

Open: Oregon -6 
Current: Oregon -6.5

This line opened at some places with the Ducks favored by 5.5 and has inched up to 6.5, but a couple sportsbooks have juiced this to -115 on Oregon, which tells me that they don't want to move this number to -7. That's interesting because the Hawkeyes have struggled in these type of games recently. They are 1-8-2 ATS in their last 11 games against ranked teams and 0-6 ATS in their last six games against top 10 teams. Meanwhile, the Ducks are 11-3 ATS as road favorites under coach Dan Lanning.