College football early Week 8 betting guide: Notes for Louisville at Miami and more

Everyone knows Saturdays are for college football, but we've got plenty of weekday action in Week 8, including a pair of massive matchups including ranked teams on Friday. Ahead of the weekend, be sure to check out Bruce Marshall's breakdowns of some of the best early-week games. 

Arkansas State at South Alabama (Tuesday, 10/14)

We've already seen the college coaching carousel spin wildly the past couple of weeks, though the Sun Belt has been one loop that has thus far resisted the temptation to hit the eject button on any of its coaches. That's partly a function of few of those entering the campaign in any imminent danger, though the one coach thought to be on the hot seat was Butch Jones at Arkansas State. A slow 1-4 break from the gate, including losses at Kennesaw State (which, in retrospect, might not be looking too bad) and UL-Monroe would ratchet up the pressure as the "Butch Watch" became a major topic of conversation in Jonesboro. Thus, coaching-wise, at least, the most significant result of the first half of this season in the Belt might have been the Red Wolves' 31-30 thriller over near two TD-favorite Texas State last Saturday at Centennial Bank Stadium, for the moment at least relieving a bit of the pressure on Jones. 

It took one of the wildest finishes of the season: 27 points in the last 3:45 and 20 points crammed into the last 1:20, with the Bobcats thinking they had won the game on a quick 66-yard drive that took just two plays at the one-minute mark, a 63-yard run by Brad Jackson to set up Lincoln Pare's 3-yard TD looking to be the decisive points. Only they weren't, as TSU would miss the PAT and leave the door ajar just enough for ASU QB Jaylen Raynor to steal the win with a hurried 75-yard drive in six plays, scoring the winner himself from 4 yards out with just seven seconds to play. Clune Van Ardel's PAT proved the final decisive point for ASU, and a bit of breathing room for Jones. 

Into the season, the Red Wolves were thought to be among the contenders in the Sun Belt, and it might not be too late for Jones to salvage his job and extend the Red Wolves' bowl string to three straight. The key is Raynor, a third-year starter and a legit dual-threat who's passed for nearly 7,000 yards and rushed for nearly 1,000 yards in his career, and whose presence should give ASU a puncher's chance in every conference game. Make no mistake, it's Raynor's show, with the running game (such as it is, with Raynor's scrambles a part of the equation) ranking well up the track at 108th nationally. 

Still, it's been enough to keep the last two meetings vs. the Jags very tight and low-scoring, with ASU covering each, and USA looks a very tough sell as a TD+ favorite after losing its last five in a row. Perhaps some of the starch was taken out of the Jags when their sell-out efforts vs. Tulane and Auburn in early September fell just short, but dispiriting losses to Coastal Carolina and in OT vs. Troy since are causing the natives to get a bit restless with second-year HC Major Applewhite. USA's own dual-threat QB, Bishop Davenport, has been a serviceable replacement for Gio Lopez (transferred to North Carolina), but has been hampered by occasional mistakes such as his four picks. Having lost five straight, the Jags look a very dubious favorite, and if recent series trends hold, approaching this high 50s total might be a chore, too. 

Arkansas State 27, South Alabama 25 

Delaware at Jacksonville State (Wednesday, 10/15)

There are dangers associated with blanket dismissals of FBS newcomers, especially when the enter the top tier at the lower levels (like Conference USA). There should be ample evidence in recent seasons from the likes of James Madison and Jacksonville State that an immediate jump might not be the football equivalent of Evel Knievel's Snake River Canyon debacle, especially as many of these programs, knowing in advance of the pending move up in class, will react accordingly, in some cases doing mass redshirting the year before making the move in hopes of improved depth and experience for the first shot at the FBS level. 

This brings us to the two schools making the leap this season in USA -- Missouri State and Delaware, the latter featured here vs. the aforementioned JSU, which showed how the jump was supposed to be done the past few years with Rich Rodriguez (now at West Virginia) in charge. For the Blue Hens, a long history of success and championships at lower levels, many of those led by legendary HC Tubby Raymond, infused U-Dee's program with success, and fourth-year HC Ryan Carty has had the Blue Hens punching hard in recent years, including a 9-2 finish a year ago in their final spin around the FCS track. They've had more than a bit to cheer about in Newark (that's New-ARK) with wins over UConn and a thumper at FIU, too, as junior QB Nick Minicucci has been winging the ball pretty good (already 1,379 passing yards and eight TDs) and might have played his best game in the Oct. 3 loss to C-USA leader WKU when he passed for 314 yards and had U-Dee poised to force OT with a dramatic last-minute, 70-yard drive that unfortunately fizzled at the final gun when Nate Reed missed a 42-yard field goal try. Still, impressive, and there is balance in this offense provided by RB Jo Silver, who danced through UConn for a whopping 179 yards in the Blue Hens' upset win over the Huskies last month. Meanwhile, the defense starred in the 38-16 romp past FIU in Miami, with a pair of interceptions in the second quarter setting up TD drives that helped extend the margin on the Panthers. 

The quick adjustment phase for the Blue Hens has also been duly noted in the marketplace, with U-Dee garnering enough respect to be made a slight favorite on the road against the Talladega Superspeedway's home team, JSU. The Gamecocks have had to adjust in the wake of Rich Rod's departure, with longtime defensive assistant from a variety of locales, Charles Kelly, now calling the shots for a team that not only lost its high-profile coach, but most of the players from last year's C-USA champs. 

While hardly falling off the map at 3-3, the Gamecocks have also failed to cover their last four, with Kelly pulling former Rutgers and Kentucky transfer Gavin Wimsatt (who had been completing only 42% of his passes) in the Sept. 27 loss at Southern Miss, replaced by frosh Caden Creel, whose main duties last Thursday at Sam Houston were either handoffs to RB Cam Cook (who gained 218 rushing yards) or keeping the ball himself (Creel ran for 132 yards). The run dimension provided by Creel adds a potential different twist to the offense, but the Gamecocks cut it awfully close vs. the winless Bearkats, needed Garrison Rippa's 52-yard FG at the final gun to pull out a 29-27 win. Regional sources believe this team rates a cut or two below Rich-Rod's entry from a year ago. 

That close shave vs. Sam Houston and recent spread underachieving makes JSU a tough sell, especially as the Blue Hens have already proven they can compete with and beat this sort of company. The Gamecocks' recent Over trends also suggest clearing this 57.5 is very possible. 

Delaware 34, Jacksonville State 28

Nebraska at Minnesota (Friday, 10/17)

We remain a bit curious why the marketplace seems to be so invested in the Cornhuskers, though we suspect it's partly because so many in sports media continue to cheer a Nebraska revival, much as they have done the past month at Florida State (that's not working out too well for the Seminoles the past few weeks). Though Matt Rhule has Nebraska punching at 5-1 thus far, make no mistake, these aren't Bob Devaney's or Tom Osborne's Cornhuskers, or even Frank Solich's Nebraska, which actually played for the national title. There's the rub, however, as it's been almost a quarter century (24 years) since Solich gave Nebraska a chance at its last hurrah before losing to Miami in the 2001 title game, and almost three decades since Dr. Tom retired from the sidelines in Lincoln with yet another national title (albeit shared in 1997 with Michigan). 

They're a bit excited in Lincoln after the fast start, but as so often the case the past quarter century on the plains, there seem to be a swarm of locusts approaching, in this case the menacing shadow of Penn State and reported interest (though it's early) in alum Rhule to succeed James Franklin, who walked the plank in Happy Valley on Sunday. As Rhule didn't categorically reject the thought he could end up at Penn State, the rumor mill has started to swirl in Lincoln, and we'll see if this proves a distraction for the Huskers, who, it should be noted, have yet to cover a spread (0-4) vs. a Power 4 entry this season, though the opening 20-17 win (but non-cover) vs. Cincinnati isn't looking too bad in retrospect. 

Last week, Nebraska left it very late in a see-saw battle at Maryland before a TD pass from Dylan Raiola to Dane Key proved the winning score in a 34-31 barnburner...but it was a spread cover for the Terps. This was after a suspect Michigan State (with aid of a late TD) covered the spread the previous week in Lincoln vs. the Huskers. Nebraska also has a home loss -- close, but a loss nonetheless, vs. Michigan, and Raiola has often been under siege, sacked a combined 12 times across recent consecutive games vs. the Wolverines and Spartans. This is also not the second coming of Osborne's old "Black Shirt Defense" after the Huskers have been letting average, or maybe slightly above-average, offenses like Michigan's and Michigan State's and Maryland's do some business in recent weeks. 

Golden Gophers fans might feel justifiably aggrieved by this spread that approaches double digits, especially as PJ Fleck has mostly had Nebraska's number in recent seasons; though these two haven't met since 2023, at that point Minnesota (and Fleck) had won and covered five straight vs. the Huskers. The Gophers are about where most thought they would be at midseason, sitting at 4-2, likely bound for another minor bowl where Fleck has had great successes in recent years, winning six straight. The infantry hasn't worked quite as well as Fleck had hoped, with leading returning rusher Darius Taylor missing a couple of September games, though redshirt-freshman QB Drake Lindsey has been able to handle a bit more of the offensive burden than expected, including a 324-yard, three-TD pass effort vs. Rutgers on Sept. 27 in a 31-28 Minnesota win. Twice Lindsey has put the ball in the air 40+ times, though those were wins over the Scarlet Knights and last week vs. Northwestern, and it's worth noting that the home team has won in all five Minnesota games to date, including the first three for the Gophers in Minneapolis. 

Perhaps this is the year that Nebraska breaks the series losing streak, and there seems enough offense on the field to get this score line past the 46.5 total, but technical and other factors suggest clearing this point spread hurdle might be asking a bit much. 

 Nebraska 27, Minnesota 24 

Louisville at Miami (Friday, 10/17)

More than any team, save perhaps Ohio State, there looks to be a straight line for the Hurricanes into the College Football Playoff after the recent 28-22 win at Florida State (a score line that greatly flatters the Seminoles). The path to the ACC title game has only a couple of more potential roadblocks, though considering its current No. 2 rank in the recent polls, the Hurricanes are likely to be around there when the first playoff rankings are announced in a couple of weeks. Even an early December slip-up in Charlotte does not project to keep Miami out of the 12-team tourney, especially if SMU could survive a loss in the ACC title game a year ago and make the playoff. 

Still, let's not get over our skis too much with the Canes, who still have more than half of their regular season still to play...and a couple of potential detours to avoid. Though recently-resurgent Pitt might think differently, as could aforementioned SMU, many ACC observers suggest this matchup vs. the 'Ville is where Miami might have its most danger before it gets to the postseason. 

Admittedly, Jeff Brohm's Cards have not been covering point spreads very consistently (indeed, they're only 1-4 vs. the number, though that deceives a bit as Brohm pulled off of the accelerator in a couple of non-ACC wins), but the 'Ville should probably be 6-0 and not 5-1 entering Hard Rock Stadium on Friday. Night. The recent OT home loss to Virginia really gnaws because the Cards let the 'Hoos score two defensive TDs, one on a 61-yard fumble return and the other a 47-yard pass interception (a very fluky score on the latter), which proved too much to overcome despite owning a hefty 383-237 edge in total yardage. Noted QB whisperer Brohm has been increasing the workload for USC transfer Miller Moss, who has gone over 300 passing yards in each of the past three games and fired a combined 99 passes with five TDs across his last two starts vs. Pitt and Virginia, so Miami will need to prepare for an aerial assault. 

 As the last two games have been close, Brohm has veered a bit away from balancing the attack more with his ground game, as featured RB Isaac Brown hasn't been over 100 rushing yards since the first two games of the season. Though there's temptation to throw towards WRs Chris Bell and Caullin Lacy, with 62 receptions between them already, it might behoove Brohm to present a bit better balance if serious about an upset. 

There are some Canes backers, however, who are remaining only cautiously optimistic, knowing how Mario Cristobal's previous Miami editions have tended to slow down as the season has progressed, offering last year as the most-recent evidence when a pair of unexpected November losses at Georgia Tech and Syracuse scuttled what was an unbeaten record and kept Cam Ward's team out of the playoff. The Canes might just be built a bit better this time around to deal with the later autumn as regional sources suggest that Georgia transfer QB Carson Beck likely has more skill-play weaponry at his disposal than did Ward a year ago, as frosh Malachi Toney and LSU transfer CJ Daniels have already combined for 52 catches and eight TDs, while RB Mark Fletcher, Jr looks well on his way to a 1,000-yard season. 

Meanwhile, Miami's defense ranks ninth nationally in scoring (just 13.6 points per game), with DE Reuben Bain Jr. looking like the next coming of Warren Sapp and generating Heisman buzz (if a bit peripheral) as is Beck. The Canes, however, were pressed by Notre Dame in the opener, and Brohm's sophisticated offense, piloted by the veteran Moss, looks to have a puncher's chance. The Brohm/Moss combo should allow the 'Ville to chase the Canes and create plenty of opportunities for the score line to exceed 53.5. 

 Miami 33, Louisville 26