College football early Week 7 betting guide: Notes for USF at North Texas, more

There's some real action to be found on the Week 7 college football schedule before Saturday hits, including appearances by a Louisiana Tech team that's covered in every game so far this season and a Group of 5 showdown featuring South Florida and North Texas. Check out Bruce Marshall's breakdowns of some of the best early-week games. 

Missouri State at Middle Tennessee (10/8, 7:30 p.m. ET)

You know that old saying about "the best-laid plans or mice and men" and how they often go awry. That applies to Middle Tennessee, as the decision to bring Derek Mason back into the coaching world and let loose of the best coach in Blue Raiders history continues to resonate the wrong way in Murfreesboro. This might be an example of long-serving AD Chris Massaro being too clever by half, worried more about the optics, giving the personable Mason another chance while adding a head coach with an SEC pedigree, something they never had before in Murfreesboro. 

The decision to move out predecessor Rick Stockstill, an early hire by Massaro after he began his tenure in August of 2005, was not received warmly. Ten times in his 18-year tenure, Stockstill steered MTSU to bowl games, including six times in an eight-year span between 2015-22. At Georgia or Alabama, that would be considered underachieving, but it made Stockstill a folk hero of sorts in Murfreesboro, as he had at least lifted the Blue Raiders to college football's middle class and a position of prominence in Conference USA. Though the program seemed to reach its ceiling, MTSU could be counted upon to at least be competitive under Stockstill, yet after a 4-8 finish in 2023, that was considered a bridge too far. Enter Mason, whose tenure at Vanderbilt, while not necessarily to be held against him, nonetheless ended rather ingloriously with a winless mark in 2020. Regional sources, while speaking highly of Mason's character, also note that the sort of hunger that drives many coaches might have left Mason after walking away from Vandy with a big buyout. 

To say that MTSU has underachieved on his watch would be an understatement; the Blue Raiders are 4-13 both straight up and against the spread since Mason arrived last year and have already been humbled by the likes of Austin Peay and Kennesaw State this season. The offense ranks 119th nationally, neither running (ranking 130th) nor passing (QB Nicholas Vattiato has just six TD passes in five games) with much effectiveness. The defense, supposedly Mason's specialty, ranks 114th in scoring at 31 ppg. If not for Nevada blowing a 13-0 lead midway in the fourth quarter on Sept. 13 at Reno, the Blue Raiders would be 0-5.

That MTSU has sunken to the point it is a slight underdog at home vs. FBS newcomer Missouri State is another damning indictment of the Mason hire. As disappointing as the Blue Raiders have been, the Bears have been just as inspiring. Making a good fist of it in their FBS debut, head coach Ryan Beard redshirted many of his players last season, creating more depth for the next step up the class ladder. Former Minnesota transfer QB Jacob Clark, a three-year starter who tossed 26 TD passes a year ago, is at least providing fiery leadership, as the last four efforts since being overmatched at USC in the opener have produced a pair of outright wins (including vs. Marshall) and three spread covers, including a spirited fight vs. SMU and a narrow miss at CUSA leader Western Kentucky. These are all quality efforts against representative teams, hence Missouri State being a slight favorite for Wednesday. We surely don't want MTSU, and Missouri State hardly looks a bad alternative at this stage of the season. Clearing the posted total in the 50 range might also be a chore for two offenses that seem challenged to score in the 20s.

Louisiana Tech at Kennesaw State (10/9, 7 p.m. ET)

And then there were three. We're talking the only teams that have covered in every game, none of them from the Power 4. Among that trio is Louisiana Tech.

The Bulldogs' cover streak in regular season games actually runs back to last season and now counts a stunning 10 in a row for head coach Sonny Cumbie, a longtime offensive coordinator in the region who was fresh off an interim HC assignment at Texas Tech before getting the call from the Bulldogs. Upon his hire in Ruston, Cumbie got off to a slow start with back-to-back 3-9 campaigns after the team had spent much of the preceding decade qualifying for bowl games. About the middle of last season, however, a transformation began to take place as the defense allowed single-digit points in three of the last five regular season games. The offense began to cut out mistakes and has picked up where it left off last November under OC Tony Franklin, who has returned to Ruston after a 13-year hiatus. This is an offense that runs on about two-thirds of its plays, though several carries belong to QBs Blake Baker and Trey Kulek, utilized on various direct runs in the Franklin playbook but also able to wheel out of trouble when facing pressure in the pocket.

Where the host Owls must be careful is actually when they have the ball, as no team in the country has forced as many turnovers (13) as the Bulldogs, part of a whopping +8 TO margin that ranks second nationally. Luke Olson's secondary is the nation's runaway leader in interceptions with 11, and took a pair back for scores in the most recent win (30-11 at UTEP on Sept. 17). Ranking 13th in the country in scoring defense at a mere 13.6 PPG allowed, the Bulldogs' most impressive showing might have been in the one game they lost outright at LSU, easily staying inside of a five-TD spread in a 23-7 loss while flustering Tigers QB Garrett Nussmeier, whose modest numbers for the evening include only 237 passing yards and just one TD pass. 

Riding a three-game home winning streak, its longest since moving up to the FBS ranks last year, KSU also gets this one at home. Wofford transfer QB Amari Odom, a dual-threat who rushed for 101 yards in the recent win over Arkansas State, has provided a spark since replacing Dexter Williams II, who was completing barely 42% of his passes. New head coach Jerry Mack has KSU running nearly 60% of the time as well, so expect this game to move along quickly, which is why we suspect the score will be hard-pressed to reach the posted 46 total. It looks like the Owls are going to try to beat Louisiana Tech at its own game, which recent foes like New Mexico State, Southern Miss, and UTEP have found very difficult to negotiate. We need a few better reasons that those offered by the Owls to not respect this long Bulldogs streak.

Southern Miss at Georgia Southern (10/9, 8 p.m. ET)

Complete transformations of rosters in the portal era no longer constitute Earth-shaking news. While Deion Sanders might have been the first to go all-in with this template upon his hire at Colorado a couple of years ago, several have followed suit. Few, however, have done it quite the way Southern Miss has done after the Golden Eagles hired away head coach Charles Huff from Marshall following last season.

Huff's Thundering Herd went 10-1-1 ATS, the best mark in the nation, but he left for Southern Miss for a salary raise -- and brought a whopping 21 players with him through the portal. Therefore, the closest analogy to this year's Golden Eagles would be last year's Thundering Herd. Among those who joined Huff at his new locale is QB Braylon Braxton, a onetime Tulsa transfer who was near mistake-free last year for the Herd, tossing 19 TD passes with only two picks... not to mention going 8-0 as a starter. Several of his targets from Huntington have joined him with the Golden Eagles, including top receiver Carl Chester, who for good measure was also with Braxton at Tulsa before moving to Marshall.  At 3-2, the Golden Eagles have honorable losses to Mississippi State and Louisiana Tech but have served notice with thumping wins over Appalachian State and Jacksonville State, scoring 40 PPG in those wins. Offensive coordinator Blake Anderson's attack has also flashed considerable balance, splitting nearly 50% between run and pass. As for Braxton, he's already passed for 1,236 yards.

While the Golden Eagles look to be on the ascent, we're hardly as sure about Clay Helton's team, which has rated as a mild disappointment thus losses. Three thumping losses by 25 points or more, including in Helton's return to USC have tempered the enthusiasm at GSU. The recent 35-10 hammering inflicted by James Madison on Sept. 27 didn't help. The Dukes not only dominated the scoreboard but physically abused the Eagles, pounding for 331 rushing yards while at the same time holding the Statesboro bunch to just 27 yards on the ground. In fact, after last week, Helton's Eagles ranked last nationally at defending the rush, allowing more than 262 yards per game on the ground while also conceding a nation's worst 6.5 yards per carry, contributing mightily to the second-worst overall defense in the country (481 YPG). 

This is hardly a positive development and will continue to hamper Helton's Eagles for the rest of the season until a remedy is sought. It's also put added pressure on the offense, QB JC French IV in particular, who has a potential gamebreaker in Auburn transfer WR Camden Brown (19.6 yards per catch) but rarely airs it out -- in 142 attempts thus far, French's longest gain is just 43 yards. There just isn't enough offense in Statesboro to compensate for the defensive frailties. Given Huff's recent spread prowess, the apparent improvements on the Southern Miss side and the shortcomings at GSU, this short price looks like a bargain. 

South Florida at North Texas (10/10, 7:30)

We hate to use the term "eliminator" for any game taking place before Columbus Day, but there are some showdown aspects to this matchup. Along with Memphis, Tulane and Navy, these two rate among the top tier of the AAC and could be tabbed as the representative of the Group of 5 conferences for that last at-large berth to the College Football Playoff. The loser of this matchup is going to suffer a real blow in the quest to win the conference, but that's not all that supporters of both of these programs are concerned about, as the respective head coaches (Alex Golesh at USF; Eric Morris at North Texas) are already getting their names mentioned in the rumor mill for jobs at the Power 4 level.

The visiting Bulls have already struck a couple of big blows for the American, first hitting the Mountain West's Boise State with a 34-7 haymaker in the opener, then stealing win at the Swamp vs. Florida for two of the better non-conference wins by an American team that we can recall. Getting back dual-threat QB Byrum Brown, who was a breakout performer two years ago when he accounted for more than 4,000 yards of offense before being sidelined for much of last season with a leg injury, has been huge. Brown has a team-best 282 rushing yards and has already accounted for 13 TDs. The offense has hit overdrive the past two games, tallying a whopping 117 points. 

The Mean Green are creating quite a bit of buzz themselves with their 5-0 start that. The big surprise has been QB Drew Mestemaker, who saw little action behind Chandler Morris (now at Virginia and doing quite well for the Cavaliers) a year ago before called to active duty in the First Responder Bowl, when he responded with a whopping 398 passing yards in a narrow loss to Texas State. Picking up where he left off in the bowl game, Mestemaker has completed nearly 68% of his passes while tossing 11 TDs and no picks through five starts. He's spread out his completions among multiple receivers, five of whom having already recorded double-digit catches. A serviceable rushing attack has also churned out better than 180 YPG on the ground. 

If there's a concern, it's a schedule that hasn't been nearly as demanding as South Florida's, and one that has already required UNT to work in overtime twice, while it took a very late 27-yard TD run by Caleb Hawkins to allow the Mean Green to just barely clear a 12-point spread against South Alabama. As we believe the visiting Bulls, despite their one loss, have been significantly more battle-tested than has undefeated UNT, we're recommending USF at what is essentially a pick 'em price, and wouldn't be surprised to see this one go back and forth and have a decent chance to clear that high 60s total.