College football early Week 10 betting guide: Notes for North Carolina at Syracuse and more

Everyone knows Saturdays are for college football, but we've got plenty of weekday action in Week 10. Things have been spooky in Chapel Hill in Bill Belichick's first season at North Carolina, but his Tar Heels will have a chance to pick up a much-needed win when they visit an ailing Syracuse team on Halloween. That's just one of four games expert Bruce Marshall has analyzed for Week 10. 

UTEP at Kennesaw State (Tuesday, 10/28)

All of a sudden, Kennesaw has another attraction besides several Waffle Houses. We're not sure many in nearby Atlanta are aware, as they're preoccupied as usual with Georgia and Georgia Tech, but neither has a better evolving storyline than the KSU Owls. In just their second season of FBS action, the Owls sit atop Conference USA (along with Jacksonville State). Kennesaw also might be coming to a bowl near you as they're just one win away from qualifying for a bowl berth. If this winning (four in a row straight up and against the spread) continues, could there be a few votes for Jerry Mack for Coach of the Year? 

Mack, who had success in his previous head coaching experience at NC Central between 2014-17 (31-15 record), moved into the FBS ranks thereafter, including a three-year stint on Josh Heupel's Tennessee staff before a year in the NFL as the Jaguars' RB coach in 2024. Mack's year in the NFL didn't impact his ability to work the portal, which can also prove a lifeline for a low-level FBS program like Kennesaw. Those adds have complemented a better-than-advertised returning core of players. 

Speed is the name of the game for the Owls. It's a run-based offense featuring a pair of mobile transfer QBs including Amari Odom (from Wofford) and Dexter Williams II (from Georgia Southern), who have been sharing duties while posting similar stats, including five TD passes and just one pick for each. Another transfer, RB Coleman Bennett, leads the team in rushing and is gaining nearly 5.0 yards per carry, but it's the ability of Odom and Williams to both sneak deep passes downfield that is causing C-USA defenses fits. The Owls rank a very respectable 24th nationally in yards per completed pass at 12.89. Speed is also apparent on a defense allowing just above 21 PPG,

Meanwhile, UTEP hasn't quite made the same advance under second-year head coach Scotty Walden, and the locals seem checked out -- the Miners haven't even been drawing five-figure attendances lately (only 9,286 for the last home game vs. Liberty). There was some encouragement in early September thanks to a credible performance at Texas in which a scrappy UTEP defense bothered Arch Manning. But a major disappointment for Walden has been QB Malachi Nelson, named Gatorade Player of the Year out of high school but unable to crack the lineups at either USC or Boise State. Some were sure that UTEP would finally be where Nelson would blossom, but it hasn't happened. Continued ineffectiveness and sloppiness (eight TD passes but nine picks) got him benched in favor of holdover Skyler Locklear, a dual-threat who performed with some flair last season and went all the way in the recent win over lowly Sam Houston, completing 21 of 26 passes in the process. 

Though Locklear has given the offense some spark, the Miners still rank well up the track in national rushing stats (123rd at just 105 yards per game), and might need more to slow down the attacking Owls defense. That KSU defense has been central in five of the last six Owls games landing on the Under side, and we expect Locklear to be harassed greatly. At some point, the Owls' offense, looking ever more capable each week, is likely to explode with the big plays needed to extend the margin, while this score likely stays in the low 50s.

Jacksonville State at Middle Tennessee (Wednesday, 10/29)

The Conference USA standings contain a few surprises, though maybe we shouldn't be shocked the Gamecocks are again near the top. After all, Jacksonville State did win the conference last year and pummeled Western Kentucky 52-12 in the title game. But the 2025 Gamecocks bear about as much resemblance to 2024 JSU as they do to last year's South Carolina, with graduation and the portal tearing away most of last season's roster. Not to mention the head coach who stewarded the move up to FBS a couple of years ago and led the Gamecocks to those recent glories, Rich Rodriguez, couldn't resist the call to return to West Virginia.

Rather than select from Rodriguez's staff, JSU went outside of the program to enlist Charles Kelly, a longtime defensive assistant at various outposts in the region. Kelly has kept elements of Rodriguez's ground-gobbling read option offense for JSU, which has been inhaling yardage on the ground for new OC Clint Trickett. JSU is third in the country in rushing (276 yards per game). Run-first freshman QB Caden Creel, who supplanted  Gavin Wimsatt earlier in October, hyperextended his left elbow in the win over Delaware on Oct. 15 and is iffy for Wednesday, in which case Wimsatt would slide back into the first-string role. The main job for either Creel or Wimsatt, however, is to give the ball to RB Cam Cook, who leads the nation with 949 rushing yards. Both QBs are mobile, helping Trickett's offense run the ball roughly 70% of the time. As they did vs. the Blue Hens two weeks ago, the Gamecocks will dare Derek Mason's defense to stop the run.   

MTSU hasn't done a bad job against the run -- there are worse rush defenses in the country than Mason's 67th-ranked unit. Yet the Blue Raider defense has made few big plays this season (forcing just eight turnovers in seven games) and hasn't been able to get stops at key moments, such as the Sept. 20 game vs. Marshall when the Thundering Herd roared back with three consecutive TD drives in the fourth quarter of an eventual 42-28 win. It also hasn't faced a rushing attack like JSU's or dealt with a runner like Cook. Unfortunately for Mason, his offense suffers from the same lack of dynamism, unable to effectively balance the attack to take some pressure off QB Nicholas Vattiato (11 TD passes), who remains MTSU's top threat. And it would be hard to find two more polar opposite rushing attacks, as only UMass and New Mexico State rank beneath the Blue Raiders' paltry 85 yards per game on the ground. 

There are simply too many things MTSU doesn't do well to trust the Blue Raiders with a recommendation, and even with a couple of spread covers on the spin, MTSU is only 6-13 vs. the line since Mason arrived last season. The Gamecocks' five Overs in their last six also make us think their ground game helps push this score just past the posted 54.5 points.

Tulane at UTSA (Thursday, 10/30)

The coaching carousel has already started to spin and the accompanying rumor mill continues to feature Jon Sumrall's name at a variety of potential destinations. It's understandable, as it has been a given since his hire at Tulane to replace Willie Fritz after the 2023 campaign that Sumrall's stay in New Orleans might not be very long. Having established his head coaching chops in two decorated seasons at Troy, Sumrall has kept on winning in the Big Easy, where his two-year record is 15-6. Add in those seasons with the Trojans, and Sumrall's record since 2022 is a sparkling 38-10. Most in the region have acknowledged that Sumrall's name is the on the speed dial of AD Mitch Barnhart at alma mater Kentucky, if and when Mark Stoops ever steps down (or is forced out). 

Whatever the distractions with Sumrall, it hasn't seemed to impact the Wave, still in contention for the American crown and a possible berth in the playoff. Shotgun marriages don't work much better than former BYU QB Jake Retzlaff landing in Sumrall's lap late in summer after Retzlaff ran afoul of some LDS dictates in Provo. Retzlaff has proven a pretty good fit, especially as he has avoided mistakes (only one interception in seven games), and, for good measure, leads Tulane rushers with 450 yards. Still, it hasn't been easy for the Wave, which have only covered three of their seven games this season, as lately Sumrall has been lacking a bit of the spread magic he had at Troy and for most of his first season in New Orleans. In fact, since late last season, Tulane has covered in only three of its last 10 games (3-6-1 ATS). The team has been forced into nervy finishes in its last two games -- both at home -- in combative 7-point wins over East Carolina and Army. Sumrall's defenses also usually rank better than the Wave's current 87th placing nationally (last year Tulane finished a respectable 24th).

Jeff Traylor's name has spun the rumor mill consistently the past few years as well, though regional insiders aren't expecting Traylor to leave UTSA anytime soon. Though he did interview at nearby Texas A&M two years ago, he also instructed his agent to get him the longest deal possible to stay in the Alamo City back in 2021 and was rewarded with a 10-year contract. A Texas product through-and-through and having spent all but two of his coaching years in the Lone Star State, Traylor is quite happy to be settled in San Antonio.

Traylor's name hasn't come up quite as much lately as UTSA's fortunes have flattened a bit the past two years, and the Roadrunners (3-4) are going to have to scramble to get bowl-eligible for the fifth straight year. Having had an extra week to stew after getting blitzed 55-17 in Denton by North Texas should at least have UTSA motivated to rebound at the Alamodome, where the Roadrunners put 61 points on Rice in their last home game. Traylor's offenses are always balanced (this edition has run 230 times and passed 227), and southpaw QB Owen McCown, in his second year as a starter, has 38 TD passes vs. 14 picks over the past two seasons. Senior RB Robert Henry Jr. provides an ample running game with his 868 rushing yards, ranking third nationally. Traylor's rebuilt defense (which returned no starters from last year) has had the occasional difficult times like vs. UNT, but the McCown-led offense, with Henry running the ball, can trade points, and as Tulane keeps flying awfully close to the flame, there's no reason to think this one will be any different. UTSA has consistently closed the season fast on Traylor's watch, and Tulane looks like a potential upset candidate this week. 

North Carolina at Syracuse (Friday, 10/31)

How appropriate for Bill Belichick's Tar Heels to be performing on Halloween, disguising themselves as a football team. To be fair, UNC has shown signs of progress in recent weeks. The losing streak has reached four, but the Heels are getting close, only a matter of inches away from winning last week's thriller vs. Virginia in overtime after playing well enough to win before being cruelly denied by Cal the previous Friday. For all of the flack taken by Belichick from his critics, maybe he was right when he recently said he didn't think his team was far away. The Heels controlled the line of scrimmage vs. the Cavaliers, stalling the UVA ground game and piling up six sacks of Chandler Morris. The Cavs were held to only 259 yards, and the UNC offense, which can be generously called a work in progress, recorded a season-high 359 yards. Those aren't Indiana numbers, to be sure, but if not for three red zone giveaways last week, the Heels would have claimed their first ACC win of the season. Back-to-back spread covers, however, might be a start.

Perhaps we should have expected this to take a while at Chapel Hill, with 30 transfers reporting after spring practice, including QB Gio Lopez (via South Alabama). Belichick also entrusted an old friend, Michael Lombardi, to be the UNC GM of Football, though Lombardi hadn't held an official football role in a decade. Yet since the bye week (and talk of Belichick perhaps angling to get out of his contract, and the Hulu documentary being cancelled) the Heels look like they have actually gotten back to basics. The fundamentals have looked better the past two weeks, and while it's hard to win games when the offense can't score more than 20 points, Lopez (who missed the Clemson loss on Oct. 4) just had his best game and first 200-yard passing effort for the Heels. For the first time this season, North Carolina is showing some real fight... can a league win be far away?

Lost amid some of the Belichick-bashing is the fact that Syracuse hasn't been playing much better the past month. There's a clear demarcation point in the season for the Orange, which came late in the high-water mark of a 34-21 win at Death Valley over Clemson on Sept. 20. That's QB Steve Angeli, who had been channeling his inner Kyle McCord and was leading the nation in passing through the first three weeks of the season, suffered an Achilles tear. Nothing has been the same since for head coach Fran Brown. 

That's mostly because LSU portal add Rickie Collins has proven a massive disappointment, to the point where Brown is asked in weekly press briefings if he's contemplating a change, perhaps to freshman Luke Carney. Those in the know say Collins is afflicted by tunnel vision, unable to throw (yet) in progression. He's thrown eight picks already, including three each in losses to SMU and Pitt. In the four consecutive losses, the Orange haven't scored more than 18 points, and the only cover came vs. the Mustangs, who had built a 31-3 lead inside of 10 minutes to play before Collins led a couple of decorative scoring drives to help the Orange slip in the back door. 

Bottom line?  Right now, Syracuse is playing worse than North Carolina, and while Lopez looks like he might be on an upward trajectory for the Heels, Collins certainly doesn't for the Orange. First team to 20 (or maybe 17) likely wins, and the Under (UNC 5-1 that way its last six, Syracuse 3-1 to the Under with Collins at QB) might be the preferred call. To pick a winner, however, this time we're going with Carolina.