College football bowl eligibility: Penn State, Clemson, UNC among teams fighting for postseason berth

For Penn State and Clemson, preseason aspirations of getting to the College Football Playoff as respective champions of the Big Ten and ACC deteriorated quickly this fall, resulting in a coach firing at one of the programs and finger-pointing at the other.

The Nittany Lions and Tigers are among the 16 teams within Power Four conferences in need of one win -- or two -- over the season's final two weeks to reach bowl eligibility. Considering both were penciled in as playoff locks three months ago, fighting for scraps down the stretch was unexpected, but neither team appears to have thrown in the November towel.

We're expecting all available bowl slots with specific conference tie-ins to be filled next month without the need for any 5-7 teams in the postseason. In that case, Academic Progress Rate (APR) would be a factor in determining eligibility. 

Looking over the rest of the slate among bowl season's bubble teams, here's a projected look at how each will finish.

Bowl projections: Georgia moves into first-round bye in College Football Playoff, Oklahoma enters bracket

Brad Crawford

Auburn (4-6)

Remaining games: Mercer, Alabama

Tigers interim coach DJ Durkin would like nothing more than to spoil Alabama's season in the Iron Bowl later this month, a win that would keep the Crimson Tide out of the SEC Championship Game, push them outside of the playoff picture and get Auburn to bowl eligibility. Stranger things have happened, but that's an upset we're not willing to predict yet. Verdict: No postseason

Baylor (5-5)

Remaining games: at Arizona, Houston

Coming off his third 400-yard passing performance of the campaign, Bears quarterback Sawyer Robertson needs another huge outing over the final two weeks if he wants a crack at another bowl game this season. Baylor's last two losses have come to ranked teams in Big 12 play and they're matched up with two remaining opponents who have combined for 15 wins. Verdict: Armed Forces Bowl

Clemson (5-5)

Remaining games: Furman, at South Carolina

The thrilling win at Louisville virtually guaranteed Dabo Swinney's program is going back to the postseason. That was unexpected from the Tigers, who were road favorites and lucky to win after a pair of missed field goals. Now, seven wins is the goal with a rivalry victory over the Gamecocks before heading to Jacksonville in our updated projections. Verdict: Gator Bowl

Duke (5-5)

Remaining games: at North Carolina, Wake Forest

How crazy is the race in the ACC this season? Prior to Saturday's home loss to Virginia, the Blue Devils actually controlled their destiny in the league title conversation. Three losses to ranked teams and two others in letdown situations have evened Duke's record at .500, a far cry from what was expected after emerging at 4-2 midseason. Darian Mensah and this offense should handle the Tar Heels next week, however. Verdict: Birmingham Bowl

Florida State (5-5)

Remaining games: NC State, at Florida

Will the Seminoles pull the plug on Mike Norvell if he loses both of his final two games this season? Perhaps. Athletic director Mike Alford promised a "comprehensive assessment" of the program at season's end last month and a five-win face plant that followed a 2-10 disaster would be an extremely tough sell on Florida State fans. Verdict: No postseason

Mississippi State (5-6)

Remaining game: at Ole Miss

Failing to get to the postseason after a 4-0 start that included a win over Arizona State is going to be tough to stomach for second-year coach Jeff Lebby and the Bulldogs. After giving up 300 yards rushing to Missouri's Ahmad Hardy over the weekend, Mississippi State could have its hands full against Kewan Lacy after he galloped for 212 yards in the Rebels' victory against Florida last time out. Verdict: No postseason

NC State (5-5)

Remaining games: Florida State, North Carolina

NC State played its best football of the season during a recent win over Georgia Tech before Saturday night's failures at Miami. Dave Doeren has faced the music about his future throughout the campaign, but he has stiff-armed speculation and said he intends on finishing his contract in Raleigh. With seven wins, the Wolfpack should head to nearby Charlotte for the postseason. Verdict: Duke's Mayo Bowl

North Carolina (4-6)

Remaining games: Duke, at NC State 

Bill Belichick's team has shown signs of life in recent weeks, but Saturday's loss at Wake Forest was a step back in the first of three rivalry games in state to conclude his first season. The Tar Heels are a 7.5-point underdog against the Blue Devils at first glance and the line could be larger for the trip to Raleigh in two weeks. Winning both of those is going to be difficult. Verdict: No postseason

Kansas (5-5)

Remaining games: at Iowa State, Utah

Home losses to Kansas State and Cincinnati this season were defining moments for the Jayhawks, who will need one "upset" against the Cyclones or Utes to play in the postseason. If it happens, that likely comes against Iowa State, which has been equally inconsistent this fall despite sizable preseason expectations. Verdict: No postseason

Kansas State (5-5)

Remaining games: at Utah, Colorado

Utah on the road is not a favorable matchup for the Wildcats, but they should handle Deion Sanders' bad Colorado team on to get to the postseason. We're projecting Kansas State to be one of the Big 12's last teams to reach bowl season. Verdict: Independence Bowl

Kentucky (5-5)

Remaining games: at Vanderbilt, at Louisville

Winners of three straight since a 2-5 start, Kentucky's defense has been its calling card during the final stretch and the Wildcats are going to need at least one more impressive performance to get to bowl eligibility for the ninth time in the last 10 seasons under Mark Stoops -- the SEC's longest-tenured coach. Verdict: No postseason

Maryland (4-6)

Remaining games: Michigan, at Michigan State 

Now that the Terps have told Mike Locksley he's going to get the 2026 season to figure things out with enhanced resources toward football, maybe the struggling coach whose lost six straight can pull the unthinkable with consecutive wins. What's more likely is a 5-7 finish and then the obstacle that is retaining quarterback Malik Washington begins. Verdict: No postseason

Northwestern (5-5)

Remaining games: Minnesota, at Illinois

Near-miss. That's how the Wildcats are going to look at Saturday's loss to Michigan, another opportunity that slipped through their fingers against a quality opponent. Northwestern has a pair of contests left against squads with winning records, but we believe the Wildcats will get one of those and return to bowl season under David Braun after finishing 4-8 last fall. Verdict: Pinstripe Bowl

Penn State (4-6)

Remaining games: Nebraska, at Rutgers

While Pat Kraft and Penn State's search committee lock in on James Franklin's permanent replacement, interim coach Terry Smith and the Nittany Lions are playing for something over the next two weeks. The win at Michigan State coming off the emotional loss against Indiana showed this team still has fight. Now, it's going to take a victory against the Huskers inside Beaver Stadium and one more after that to get to bowl eligibility. For the most part, 6-6 Big Ten teams rarely go to the ReliaQuest in favor of a ranked option, but Penn State is a different commodity. Verdict: ReliaQuest Bowl

Rutgers (5-5)

Remaining games: at Ohio State, Penn State

Considering we've slotted Penn State in a bowl game, you know what that means for the Scarlet Knights. Finishing it out against the top-ranked Buckeyes and an improving Nittany Lions squad is unfortunate. That said, Rutgers gave itself a chance to finish strong after beating Maryland, 35-20, in Week 12. Verdict: No postseason

Washington State (5-5)

Remaining games: at James Madison, Oregon State

Narrow losses to Ole Miss and Virginia really sting for the Cougars, but it's the unexplainable setback against Oregon State a few weeks ago that's the real black eye this season. JMU's in the playoff conversation and is annihilating opponents this season, so we think there's a possibility Washington State gets revenge on the Beavers and wins the rare rematch on Nov. 29. Verdict: New Mexico Bowl