College football betting: Week 9 bets to make now or later according to expert, including Texas vs. Miss. St
SportsLine college football expert Thomas Casale looks at the top Week 9 games to bet now and which ones you should wait on for better lines
Each Sunday during the season, I will preview some of the bigger college football games early in the week, give my initial lean, and recommend to either bet it early or wait for a better line. Just for clarification, I will always mention if I already bet the game personally so there is no confusion.
My official Week 9 plays will be out later in the week and I will also post all my picks in the SportsLine Discord as soon as I bet them. This article is more about giving advice so you can get the best number in the higher-profile games every Saturday.
Here are my early thoughts on the Week 9 matchups.
South Carolina +13.5 vs. Alabama
This is an interesting game for Alabama. The Crimson Tide have beaten ranked opponents four weeks in a row with wins over Georgia, Vanderbilt, Missouri and Tennessee. Now Alabama hits the road to face struggling South Carolina as a 13.5-point favorite.
The problem for the Gamecocks right now is an offense that can't score points. Then again, when a team hires Mike Shula to be its offensive coordinator, that is an inevitable outcome. Shula's predictable play calling has led to South Carolina averaging just 11 points against SEC opponents not named Kentucky.
As we get deeper into October, betting certain spots can be profitable. This looks like one of them to me. It's really tough for college kids to get up for games five weeks in a row. There is no question Alabama is the better team here, but South Carolina is getting the Tide at the perfect time right before their bye week.
Shane Beamer is always dangerous as a home dog and I expect the Gamecocks to play their best game of the season. I haven't bet this one yet but I have a strong lean to South Carolina +13.5. We have seen early money come in on the Gamecocks, so I would expect the number to dip a bit. Grab South Carolina early if you like the underdog in this matchup.
Bet: South Carolina +13.5
Texas -6.5 vs. Mississippi State
What is going on with Texas? The Longhorns continued to look like a mess on offense last week against SEC bottom feeder Kentucky. Texas needed overtime to reach 16 points while Arch Manning went a miserable 12-of-27 for 132 yards.
While I certainly don't trust the Longhorns right now, I do believe it might be time to buy low on Texas here given the matchup. Mississippi State is much improved this season under head coach Jeff Lebby. The Bulldogs are 4-3 with losses to Tennessee in overtime and Florida by two. Mississippi State is 3-1 as an underdog and I expect it will be a popular play again this week.
The thing that concerns me with the Bulldogs in this matchup is while the defense has improved, it's still not to the level of teams like Oklahoma and Florida. The Bulldogs gave up 30+ points to both Tennessee and Texas A&M. I can see Manning and the Texas' offense having some success on Saturday and the Horns' defense is still one of the best in college football.
I recommend waiting if you like Texas this week. I don't see this number moving a lot, although I believe it could go down to 5.5 with all the early money coming in on the home dog.
Wait: Texas -5.5 or better
Memphis +3 vs. South Florida
Sometimes college kids look ahead to a more important game and get caught. That was the case with Memphis last week. The Tigers went on the road to play a UAB team that just fired its coach with a huge game on deck against South Florida. So, what happened? Memphis lost outright as a 21.5-point favorite.
This week sets up as a great spot to back a quality Memphis team at home coming off an embarrassing loss. Remember, the Tigers may have lost to UAB but they also upset Arkansas. While I like this spot for Memphis, we have to monitor the health of starting quarterback Brendon Lewis throughout the week. Lewis injured his leg late in the fourth quarter against UAB and was replaced by true freshman AJ Hill.
Lewis was on crutches after the game, so it doesn't look like he will play. However, Hill is a highly-touted prospect who was competing with Lewis for the starting job deep into the summer. I expect this number to jump significantly during the week. I wouldn't be surprised if USF reaches -6.5 once we get more news on Lewis.
If you like USF on Saturday, I would bet them as soon as possible. I don't see a scenario where the line goes under three given Memphis' uncertainty at quarterback. There is no need to rush if you like Memphis here. Let the number continue to climb and wait for it to reach +6 or better. Even with Lewis likely out, I have a strong lean to the Tigers at that number.
Wait: Memphis +6 or better
