College football betting: Week 8 bets to make now or later according to expert, including Notre Dame vs. USC

Each Sunday during the season I will preview some of the bigger college football games early in the week, give my initial lean, and recommend to either bet it early or wait for a better line. Just for clarification, I will always mention if I already bet the game personally so there is no confusion. 

My official Week 8 plays will be out later in the week, and I will also post all my picks in the SportsLine Discord as soon as I bet them. This article is more about giving advice so you can get the best number in the higher-profile games every Saturday. 

Here are my early thoughts on the Week 8 matchups:

Iowa Hawkeyes (-2.5) vs. Penn State Nittany Lions

This line is on the move for obvious reasons. Penn State was -10.5 on the lookahead line and then re-opened -1.5 on Saturday night. The number quickly switched to Iowa being a small favorite and was sitting at the Hawkeyes -2.5 at the time this article was written. 

The obvious reasons I mentioned are Penn State has lost three games in a row and starting quarterback Drew Allar is out for the season. The Nittany Lions are in shambles right now and the freefall shows no signs of stopping any time soon. 

If you like Iowa, run to bet the Hawkeyes at anything under -3. This line will continue to rise throughout the week, and I can even see a scenario where it goes up to Iowa -5. I can't imagine why anyone would want to wager money on Penn State right now, but if you are one of those brave souls, there is no reason to bet the Nittany Lions early. Wait for the line to get above three. 

Bet: Iowa -2.5 

Notre Dame Fighting Irish (-8.5) vs. USC Trojans 

I like Notre Dame in this spot, although 8.5 is a bit much for me. I mentioned all summer that the Fighting Irish would get better throughout the season, and we are seeing that over the last couple of weeks, especially on defense. 

Notre Dame allowed 98 points in its first three games. Since then, the Irish have given up a total of 27 points in wins over Arkansas, Boise State and NC State. Yes, Notre Dame did face Miami and Texas A&M early, but the defense has looked much better recently under new coordinator Chris Ash. The Fighting Irish won't completely shut down USC's high-powered offense on Saturday. However, I like the way they are playing on both sides of the ball right now. 

The market has been high on both of these teams this season. In that scenario, I always project the line to move towards the underdog. I expect this number to go down to 7.5, and if it hits -7 or less, I would strongly consider betting the Fighting Irish. 

Wait: Notre Dame -7 or better

Clemson Tigers (-10.5) vs. SMU Mustangs

Clemson is my top play this week, and while the Tigers have played much better recently, this is more about SMU. The Mustangs just don't look right. 

SMU beat Stanford 34-10 on Saturday, although the final score is misleading. The score was 24-10 with five minutes left and Stanford scored a touchdown. However, a penalty wiped the touchdown off the board and the next play, quarterback Ben Gulbranson threw an interception that was returned 96 yards for a touchdown. 

SMU's defense is having trouble getting off the field, which is limiting the offense's possessions. Lowly Stanford held the ball for over 36 minutes, ran 74 plays and racked up 23 first downs. That is a bad open facing the rejuvenated Clemson offense on Saturday. 

While I like the Tigers, 10.5 is a little high. I do expect some early money to come in on SMU, though. We already saw the line drop from 11.5 to 10.5. My target number is 8.5, but I would feel comfortable backing Clemson at anything less than 10.

Wait: Clemson -9.5 or better