College football betting: Week 12 bets to make now or later according to expert, including Georgia vs. Texas

Each Sunday during the season I will preview some of the bigger college football games early in the week, give my initial lean, and recommend to either bet it early or wait for a better line. Just for clarification, I will always mention if I already bet the game personally so there is no confusion. 

My official Week 12 plays will be out later in the week and I will also post all my picks in the SportsLine Discord as soon as I bet them. This article is more about giving advice so you can get the best number in the higher-profile games every Saturday. 

Here are my early thoughts on the Week 12 matchups.

Notre Dame Fighting Irish (-10.5) vs. Pittsburgh Panthers

Notre Dame opened -10.5 on the road but I expect money to come in on the home dog. The Fighting Irish have been rolling since starting the season 0-2, winning seven straight by an average of 28.5 points. However, this is Notre Dame's last real test of the season and probably the only game standing between the Irish and the College Football Playoff. 

Pitt is an interesting team. The Panthers lost two straight games in September to West Virginia and Louisville, each by seven points. Since then, Pitt has rattled off five consecutive wins. Granted, the competition hasn't been overly tough, but the Panthers are playing their best football of the season and have the luxury of coming off a bye week. 

This is Pitt's Super Bowl, while Notre Dame just needs to survive to keep its playoff hopes alive. I think Pitt puts up a fight at home and I recommend grabbing the 10.5 points early. If you like Notre Dame, wait for a better number during the week.

Bet: Pitt +10.5

Michigan State Spartan (+8.5) vs. Penn State Nittany Lions

It's difficult to back Michigan State right now. The Spartans have lost six straight games with their last win coming on Sept. 13 over FCS Youngstown State. However, Penn State is in one of the worst spots of the season on Saturday. 

The Nittany Lions went from ranked No. 2 in the country to a team that lost its starting quarterback, fired its head coach and enters Saturday on a six-game losing streak. Credit to the Nittany Lions for still fighting. They lost to Iowa by one, competed for a half against No. 1 Ohio State, and almost upset No. 2 Indiana last Saturday. 

My question is how much do these players have left in the tank mentally after two emotional losses to Ohio State and Indiana? The loss to the Hoosiers was particularly gut-wrenching because Penn State came from behind to take a late lead before losing in the final seconds on one of the best catches you will ever see by Omar Cooper Jr. 

This is a tough spot for Penn State on the road laying over a touchdown. I can see a scenario where the Nittany Lions start off slowly and this settles into a close, low-scoring game. I think this number goes down, so I would grab the Spartans at anything over +7 early.

Bet: Michigan State +8.5

Georgia Bulldogs (-6.5) vs. Texas Longhorns

The biggest game of the week is also one of the toughest to gauge from a spread perspective. Georgia opened -5.5 at home and quickly jumped to 6.5. If you like the Bulldogs this week, I would be patient. I expect the number to settle closer to the opener and maybe even dip to 4.5. 

It's do or die this week for Texas. A third loss almost certainly eliminates the Longhorns from playoff contention, especially with so many other SEC teams in the hunt. A loss will be a big blow to Georgia as well. The Bulldogs would drop to 8-2 with a game at Georgia Tech still remaining. 

Texas went 0-2 against Georgia last season despite closing as the favorite both times. I think the Bulldogs are the better team here, although 6.5 points feels a bit inflated. The market is high on both teams but I expect money to come in on the Longhorns at some point during the week. 

I would grab Texas at +6.5 if the line is still available. I don't see the number going over seven. If you are planning to bet Georgia, wait for the line to drop. Look for -5 or better. I think the spread settles at 4.5 or 5.5 with pro money coming in on both sides of this matchup.

Wait: Georgia -5 or better