College football betting: Texas Tech vs. BYU among expert's best Week 11 spots to target

Every Thursday during the college football season, I'll release my favorite spots to bet for the upcoming week. 

A great example of a "spot" play is Vanderbilt's upset over Alabama last season. The Commodores were returning home after two straight road losses, while Alabama was coming off an emotional win over No. 2 Georgia. Vanderbilt won the game outright as a 23-point underdog. We will see more opportunities like this once the season gets going based on travel, results, and injuries.

You can bet college football games this week at FanDuel Sportsbook, where new users get $150 in bonus bets with a winning $5 wager:

Just for clarification, I'll always mention if I bet the game personally. Sometimes, I will like the spot for a certain team but my numbers may not see enough value to make it an official play.  Here are three strong betting spots for Week 11.

TCU Horned Frogs -6.5 vs. Iowa State Cyclones

I have been waiting for this spot and gave out TCU -3 last Friday. I wanted to protect against Iowa State losing at home to Arizona State last week and the line re-opening higher. Well, the Cyclones lost and the number went from -3 to -6.5. 

I make TCU -7 at home, so there isn't a lot of value on the side anymore. However, I do think the Horned Frogs win easily on Saturday. If you missed out on -3 and don't want to lay 6.5, I think playing TCU in money line parlays and going Over the team total of 31.5 are other ways to bet the Horned Frogs. 

Iowa State comes into Saturday reeling after four straight losses. The Cyclones haven't been the same since losing both starting corners to season-ending injuries. During the four-game slide, Iowa State is allowing 31.2 points per game. Things won't get any easier this week against Josh Hoover and the explosive TCU offense that averages 38.5 points at home this season. 

Matt Campbell is always dangerous in the underdog role. That's why I was comfortable grabbing TCU last week laying just a field goal. However, this isn't a good Cyclones team right now. I mean, Iowa State lost to Colorado. Since that game, the Buffs have been outscored 105-24!

Again, -3 and -6.5 is obviously a big difference but I expect TCU to win a 48-27 kind of game at home coming off a bye week.

Texas Tech Red Raiders -10 vs. BYU Cougars

Doesn't it feel like oddsmakers are begging you to take BYU on Saturday? This line opened Texas Tech -9 and despite a lot of the money coming in on the other side, it moved up to 10.5 before settling at -10. It reminds me of the Utah-Cincinnati game from last week where the line kept going up despite money coming in on the Bearcats. The result? Utah won 45-14.

The Cougars enter this matchup of Big 12 heavyweights unbeaten and off a bye week. However, the market has been extremely high on Texas Tech all season and we are seeing that again with this line. The question I have gotten most this week is, "Why is BYU a 10-point underdog?" I think there are a couple of reasons.

I mentioned the market being high on the Red Raiders. I know some people have Texas Tech much higher in their power ratings. There is also the home field advantage. This is the biggest game Texas Tech has hosted in years. Lubbock is one of the toughest places to play in the country when the Red Raiders are good. 

Maybe I'm still undervaluing BYU, although I believe the Big 12 is Texas Tech and everyone else right now. It's the Red Raiders or pass for me in this matchup.

Miami Hurricanes -28.5 vs. Syracuse Orange

Miami needs a "get right" game after losing to SMU as a double-digit favorite. Enter Syracuse. Just what the doctor ordered. 

The Orange are struggling in Fran Brown's second year after losing so many key players from last season. Syracuse has dropped five straight games since upsetting Clemson on Sept. 20. Not coincidentally, that is also when starting quarterback Steve Angeli was lost for the season. The Orange have been outscored 167-60 during the losing streak and were defeated by an average of 21.4 points. 

Miami is likely out of the ACC title and College Football Playoff picture, so maybe the players don't show up mentally. However, the Hurricanes have a big edge on both sides of the ball, especially in the trenches. Miami ranks No. 2 in rush defense, while Syracuse is 102 allowing over 177 yards a game. I don't think Carson Beck and the passing game will need to do much on Saturday. 

Mario Cristobal isn't a great coach when the pressure is on him. However, his teams have shown the ability to rebound after a surprising loss to beat up on inferior opponents. Last season, after the unbeaten Canes fell to Georgia Tech, they defeated Wake Forest 42-14 in their next game. I think Miami gets right on Saturday and rolls at home.