College football betting: Missouri, Arkansas among best Week 7 spots to target according to expert

Every Thursday during the college football season, I'll release my favorite spots to bet for the upcoming week. 

A great example of a "spot" play is Vanderbilt's upset over Alabama last season. The Commodores were returning home after two straight road losses, while Alabama was coming off an emotional win over No. 2 Georgia. Vanderbilt won the game outright as a 23-point underdog. We will see more opportunities like this once the season gets going based on travel, results, and injuries.

Just for clarification, I'll always mention if I bet the game personally. Sometimes, I will like the spot for a certain team but my numbers may not see enough value to make it an official play. 

Here are three strong betting spots for Week 7

Oregon State +3 vs. Wake Forest

Oregon State is 0-6, but I think the Beavers could win their first game on Saturday. This is an awful spot for Wake Forest coming off two emotional ACC games and now traveling across the country to Corvallis. 

Wake Forest starting quarterback Robby Ashford is also a little banged up and while he is expected to play, he could be limited as a runner. Ashford is completing just 59% of his passes with two touchdowns and four interceptions, so it will be advantage Beavers if he can't run as much on Saturday. 

Oregon State has played better at home than on the road. They should have beaten Houston before losing by three in overtime and fell to Fresno State because they couldn't execute a long snap. I'm selling high on the Demon Deacons after beating Virginia Tech and losing by one to Georgia Tech in overtime. 

The furthest Wake Forest has traveled this season is Blacksburg, Virginia. The Demon Deacons are a young team, so we will see how they respond to traveling through three time zones to face a winless opponent this week. I made this line closer to pick and gave out the Beavers at +3.

No. 14 Missouri +3 vs. No. 8 Alabama

I love this spot for Missouri. The Tigers get Alabama at home coming off the Georgia win and a big revenge game against Vanderbilt. 

Missouri hasn't played the toughest schedule, but something that can keep the Tigers in this game is on paper, they lead college football in rush offense and rush defense. Alabama obviously represents a step up in competition from Kansas and South Carolina - Missouri's toughest opponents to date. However, if the Tigers can compete in the trenches against one of college football's top offensive and defensive lines, they have a good chance to pull off the upset. 

While I do like the spot for Missouri, the reason I haven't bet it is because we lost value on the line. Last week, Alabama was -6.5 but the line re-opened at 3.5 and got bet down to -3. I make the number Alabama -5, so right now it's just not high enough for me to bite. 

I do expect this to be a very tight game throughout. I recommend taking Missouri at anything over +4 if the odds move closer to kickoff. Other options are to put the Tigers in a teaser or wait to see if we get a better number live.

Arkansas +12.5 vs. No. 12 Tennessee

Arkansas fired Sam Pittman during its bye week and named Bobby Petrino the interim head coach. Petrino then fired the defensive coordinator. The Hogs sure seem like a mess right now, so why is this a good spot for Arkansas?

The good news for the Razorbacks is they are catching Tennessee at a perfect time. The Vols are coming off a bye and face Alabama next week. It's not easy for college kids to spend an off week totally focused on a team that just canned its head coach without looking ahead to the Crimson Tide a little bit. 

Arkansas players seem to be responding well to the coaching change with no one opting out. It could just be lip service but a lot of the kids are saying they are re-focused on the rest of the season under Petrino. Let's be honest, they weren't focused the last time out against Notre Dame. The Fighting Irish are a good team but that was an embarrassing effort by the Hogs, leading to Pittman's firing. 

I also still have major concerns about Tennessee's defense. This is a unit that allowed an average of 34 points in its last three games against Georgia, UAB and Mississippi State. Say what you want about Arkansas but the Hogs can score. Take away the dud against Notre Dame and Petrino's offense has topped 30 points in every game this season. 

This line was 13.5 most of the week before moving to 12.5. I would consider the Razorbacks at that number. I also like Over 27.5 on Arkansas' team total . I think Taylen Green and Co. will have enough success offensively to stay within the number.