College football betting guide: Expert breaks down top Week 7 games, including Indiana at Oregon

Week 7 of the 2025 college football season has some massive games on tap, such as a top-10 clash between Indiana and Oregon and the ever-intriguing Red River Rivalry between Texas and Oklahoma, which has an added layer in regards to Sooners quarterback John Mateer's status for the game.

SportsLine college football expert Bruce Marshall, the longtime executive editor of The Gold Sheet, has gathered information on Saturday's top games and shares everything bettors need to know about Week 7 of the college football season. For those who are interested in college football betting, be sure to check out Marshall's plays.

Indiana at Oregon

We admit it has taken some getting used to with Indiana now involved in featured games these days. So long dormant have the Hoosiers been on the gridiron that in their long football history, only John Pont's Cinderella 1967 team, which literally came out of nowhere, made it to the Rose Bowl when the Big Ten champ was locked into the Pasadena date for decades. In the half-century-plus since, only on occasion has IU made any noise, mostly in a pretty good stretch from the mid-80s into the mid-90s under no-nonsense Bill Mallory. 

Last year's arrival of HC Curt Cignetti from James Madison, however, has changed the narrative in Bloomington. Though inheriting a veteran roster, Cignetti immediately proved he knew what he was doing as the Hoosiers unleashed a ferocious attack behind Ohio transfer QB Kurtis Rourke, who piloted the second-highest scoring offense (41.3 points per game) in the country. Not even Pont's Rose Bowl team did things like last year's IU, which won games by scores like 77-3, 56-7 (over Nebraska, by the way), 47-10 (Michigan State), and the coup de grace vs. in-state Purdue, suffering through a miserable campaign that was made even worse by a 66-0 Hoosier whitewash. 

After reaching the playoff last season, the Hoosiers arguably look more potent in 2025, recently having put 63 points on a very good Illinois team currently sitting 17th in the rankings. Cignetti's QB find from the portal this season has been ex-Cal pilot Fernando Mendoza, who reminds more than a few of Bernie Kosar at the same stage of development 40+ years ago, and has picked up where Rourke left off and then some, already with 16 TD passes (including five in back-to-back games, one of those vs. the Illini) to move into Heisman contention. The offense, however, might even have more balance than a year ago, with Maryland transfer RB Roman Hemby potentially en route to a 1,000-yard season, as might backfield mate Kaelon Black, who moved to Indiana from JMU along with Cignetti after the 2023 campaign. The Hoosiers also hit this weekend running some kind of parlay, ranking fifth nationally in both total offense and total defense, fourth in scoring offense (47.6 per game) and third in scoring defense (9.6 per game). 

The schedule hasn't been chock-full of patsies, either, with Illinois and Iowa already dispatched in Big Ten play. Cignetti is also 11-5 vs. the spread since last season, which includes a gift safety on the final play at Iowa City to allow the Hawkeyes to slip inside of that 6.5 spread. 

Like IU, the Ducks are also off of a bye week into this once-unlikely showdown at Autzen Stadium, and they served notice in the recent OT win at Penn State (still a high-quality result, despite what happened to the Nittany Lions last week at UCLA) that Dan Lanning has another legit national contender on his hands. Former UCLA transfer QB Dante Moore passed his litmus test at Happy Valley and looked so good against the Nittany Lions that he's been thrust into the thick of the Heisman discussion. Moore, with 14 TD passes and just one pick while completing nearly 75% of his throws, seemed to come of age in the Penn State win, but the defense deserves equal billing, ranking seventh overall (238 yards per game) and tied for sixth in scoring defense (12.2 points per game). 

While these respective offenses deserve all of the headlines they receive, we can't help but notice how well each of these stop units have been performing, too, and especially note the recent games involving the Webfoots in which the score lines have been landing Under (three straight), and also aware that the Hoosiers got into a defensive war at Iowa a few weeks ago before finally surviving 20-15. Thus, our first recommendation here is for these sides to land beneath the mid 50s on the totals side, with a secondary preference to the well-balanced Hoosiers, who have the sort of real gunslinger in Mendoza to trade points in Eugene. 

Oregon is favored by 7.5, up a half-point from the opening line.

The Pick: Oregon 26, Indiana 23 

Florida at Texas A&M

Like those various insect species that can supposedly survive a nuclear attack, it's hard to get rid of Billy Napier. Take last week's game at the Swamp vs. Texas, which many thought would likely put an end to the mostly underwhelming Napier regime in Gainesville, now into its fourth season -- especially as the Gators entered last week off of three consecutive losses. Yet much like another current under-fire coach/manager in another sport, Manchester United's Ruben Amorim, Napier seems to be able to coax big efforts from his troops in the nick of time to ease the pressure. 

So it went again last Saturday, as the favored Longhorns were flustered and Napier's Florida pulled clear to a 29-21 win. While it hasn't totally removed the pressure on Napier (this is the SEC, after all, and there's this week's game at 5th-ranked Texas A&M, too), has bought Napier a bit more time. 

It is not lost upon savvy SEC observers, however, that Napier's Gators gave a glimpse of what they could be down the stretch last season when closing with a rush in November, looking like perhaps the SEC's best team as the campaign concluded with handy wins over LSU and Ole Miss (wrecking the playoff hopes of each), a romp past hated Florida State, and a cruise past Tulane in the Gasparilla Bowl. Along the way, Napier became a favorite of various sportsbook patrons across the country as Florida would cover nine of its last 10 vs. the spread, the only "L" vs. the number against the team the Gators vanquished last week, Texas, when Napier was down to his third-string QB, Yale transfer Aidan Warner, after freshman star DJ Lagway was forced to miss the game with a hamstring strain and early-season starter Graham Mertz was also out. 

Lagway remains the linchpin, and his struggles early in the season, when he recorded only five TD passes compared to six picks in the first four games, stalled the Gator offense, which managed only 11 points per game across a three-game skid. Several SEC sources, however, had a similar explanation, that Lagway's offseason and fall camp were spent mostly dealing with shoulder and calf injuries, as much of his prep time in the summer was spent in the treatment room. Brought along gingerly, Lagway would be ready for the opener vs. Long Island, but he was obviously a bit rusty when the scheduled ramped up in September. 

Now, however, Lagway seems to be back to normal and is off of his best game of the season as he passed for 298 yards vs. the Horns. Along the way, backfield mate Jadan Baugh finally had a breakthrough game vs. Texas with 107 rushing yards, and the pieces began to fit defensively as the many recent blue-chip Florida recruits made their presence felt on the stop end, especially voracious pass rush that sacked Arch Manning six times. This was the Florida everyone expected to see this season. Now, can Napier carry this new-found momentum into midseason and beyond? 

The Aggies look a tougher hurdle than the Longhorns a week ago, partly because A&M is getting more confident work at QB from sophomore Marcel Reed, whose stock has been on the rise since bursting upon the scene as a freshman last fall and burnishing his reputation when leading that last-minute drive to victory at Notre Dame on Sept. 13. Collin Klein's offense, however, is not shoot 'em up, rather well-balanced and leaning to the run roughly 60% of the time with senior Le'Veon Moss and sophomore Reuben Owens (combined 619 rushing yards) doing much of the work. 

In the last two wins, both also at College Station vs. Auburn and Mississippi State, Mike Elko's defense has reappeared after some shaky efforts out of the gate, especially the shootout at Notre Dame when the Reed-led offense had to score 41 to record a 1-point win. The Ags, however, haven't been especially good vs. the line lately, dropping eight of their last 10 vs. the spread -- and even last week's win and cover vs. MSU took a while to ferment, as the score line was still just 7-3 into the fourth quarter. 

We suspect it might even be harder to extend the margin on the Gators, who have been especially competitive with Lagway, when 100% or close to it, on the field. Remember, Lagway was very early into his freshman campaign and alternating at QB with the veteran Metrz when A&M won 33-20 at the Swamp last September. It's a different Lagway now who can likely keep Florida competitive at Kyle Field. 

Texas A&M is favored by 7.5 points, down two from the opener.

The Pick: Texas A&M 25, Florida 23 

Michigan at USC

The old "eye test" can sometimes deceive. Certainly, there were few style points scored by either side in Michigan's workmanlike 24-10 win over Wisconsin last Saturday at the Big House. Indeed, so drab was the action that it was rumored watching replays of the game were being used in lieu of community service during sentencing in some Ann Arbor courtrooms this past week. Yet, that is exactly what makes the Wolverines so intriguing week to week, especially when made an underdog...and especially when on the road. 

To wit: in its last seven games since late last season, Michigan has played four games away from home: at the Big Horseshoe against Ohio State, at the Reliaquest Bowl vs. Alabama, at Norman against Oklahoma and at Lincoln against Nebraska. The Wolverines won three of those despite being an underdog in each of those games (indeed a high-teens dog in two of those wins, vs. the Buckeyes and Crimson Tide). The Wolverines really didn't excel offensively in any of those clashes, either, though they did break for three long TD runs against the Cornhuskers. One of those, a 37-yard scoring scamper, was courtesy ballyhooed freshman QB Bryce Underwood, who has only made two road starts in his fledgling career, which has progressed a bit slowly but is progressing nonetheless during the first month of this campaign. 

Underwood won't yet be mistaken for Dan Marino, but he did pass for a career-high (it's only five games, but play along here) 270 yards last week against Nebraska, while his legs did much of the damage in preceding games vs. Central Michigan (when he gained 114 yards rushing) and aforementioned Nebraska. Importantly, Underwood has also kept mistakes to a minimum, tossing just one pick to date. Though the star of the offense to date has unquestionably been Alabama transfer RB Justice Haynes, already at 654 rushing yards and eight TDs before the halfway point of the season, and getting some "others to watch" mention in the wide-open Heisman race. Meanwhile, Sherrone Moore's defense again ranks in the top 20 (18th, allowing just 283 yards per game), while foes are barely scoring 16 points per game. It's not necessarily exciting football, but it's effective football nonetheless. 

The challenge for host USC is to prove it can stand up to one of the "line of scrimmage" Big Ten teams like the Wolverines that have proven a tough matchup since the Trojans joined the league last year. Wins over downgraded Nebraska and Wisconsin, both at home last season, don't quite qualify, and while most of these losses have been on the road (such as two weeks ago at Illinois, and last season at the Big House, Minnesota, Washington and Maryland), SC hasn't beaten a true Big Ten powerhouse at the Coliseum since entering the league, either. 

The questions we have regard the USC defense, which on the surface might seem like it can deal with the still-learning Underwood, though remember the Trojans couldn't hold off a very one-armed Wolverines entry last year at Ann Arbor when Michigan was even more imbalanced (since-transferred QB Alex Orgi "led" the wolverines passing game with 32 yards through the air), yet played good-enough smashmouth to the tune of 290 yards rushing to eventually wear down the Trojans, especially on the game-winning 10-play, 89-yard drive in the final minutes when completing only one pass, good for 10 yards. 

Granted, SC wins the style points argument here, especially with QB Jayden Maiava now fully indoctrinated into the Lincoln Riley offense and having passed for almost 1,600 yards already this season. Yet, D'Anton Lynn's Trojan defense, while improved from the Alex Grinch versions earlier in Riley's USC tenure, has been giving up too many big plays lately while getting gashed for 65 points across the past two games (vs. Michigan State and Illinois) and unable to keep the Illini from driving the field for a game-winning field goal in the final seconds two weeks ago. 

Recent history says Michigan can win this game outright and might not need any of the small help it is getting from the oddsmakers. Besides, style points matter in Olympic figure skating and synchronized swimming ... not college football! 

USC is favored by 2.5 after opening as a 1.5-point underdog.

The Pick: Michigan 29, USC 26 

Oklahoma vs. Texas at Cotton Bowl

Forgive us for feeling like we've been sold a bill of goods by someone regarding this version of the Longhorns, and sophomore QB Arch Manning in particular. Who, or what, then, is to blame? Steve Sarkisian, perhaps? How about Peyton and Eli? Maybe members of the national sports press and media brigade? Rampant overhype from Instagram and other social media platforms? Or a combination of any of those mentioned? 

The latter explanation might be best, not that it matters much in regard to Manning, who, to this point in the season, at least, looks like the biggest false alarm since the Comet Kohoutek, showing only brief glimpses of the supposed potential that had made him the consensus Heisman favorite entering the new season and one of the main reasons the Longhorns were a consensus preseason No. 1 in the polls for 2025. Needless to say, it hasn't gone as planned for Arch, whose best game came against a woeful Sam Houston, while tossing picks in his other four starts. Texas also slipped out of the polls entirely after last Saturday's 29-21 loss at Florida. 

We're not quite ready to give up on Arch, or the Horns, however, reckoning that Texas has been dealt two of college football's most daunting and hostile road assignments (the Big Horseshoe in Columbus, and The Swamp in Gainesville), which handed the Horns their two losses. We'd still rather give the benefit of the doubt to Sarkisian, a noted QB whisperer who was literally gushing over Manning in the preseason and still believes Arch will deliver. Manning has hardly been the only disappointment with the offense. Heck, Arch even leads the team in rushing with just 160 yards in five games. What in the name of Earl Campbell is going on with the RB corps, with Jerrick Gibson leading the way with only 155 rushing yards through the first five games? 

Meanwhile, Pete Kwiatkowski's defense has been mostly up to the task, conceding only nine points per game, though team meetings for the stop unit since the Florida game might have been a bit tense after the Horns were rarely able to make Gators QB DJ Lagway uncomfortable last week as he passed for his season-best 298 yards while Jaden Baugh (107 rushing yards) became the first back to rush for 100 yards against Kwiatkowski's defense this season. 

Yet the real key to this Red River Showdown at the Cotton Bowl probably lies on the Sooners side and if QB John Mateer is available after undergoing hand surgery two weeks ago. The original timetable for Mateer's recovery was one month, but as is often the case with gridiron stars, the timeline tends to move up, especially when other factors are involved. Not as much, perhaps Mateer's Heisman campaign that was going with all guns blazing into late September before the hand injury sidelined him last week vs. Kent State. The dropoff to backup Michael Hawkins is fairly steep. Hawkins, who seemed to be playing somewhat under wraps last week vs. the Golden Flashes, does have some experience from last season when he started a handful of games, including a win at Auburn. Hawkins has never posted Baker Mayfield-like stats, however, and indeed was also at the controls for the Armed Forces Bowl loss to Navy last December as well as last October's Texas game here in Dallas, when he was mostly overwhelmed in a 34-3 loss. 

As Mateer remains iffy late in the week, if it's Hawkins again on Saturday, there will be even more pressure on Brett Venables' defense, which has been mostly up to the task this season and sacked former QB and now Auburn signal-caller nine times back on Sept. 20. Therein could lie another key, as Manning's shaky pocket presence (at least to this point) makes him an inviting target for OU's edge rushers (led by Taylor Wein) who have already recorded a nation-leading 21 sacks. 

For those reasons and others (especially if Hawkins remains at QB for OU), we suspect clearing the total at 43 is going to be a real challenge -- Under might be our top preference. As the Horns also aren't a real visitor for one of these showdown games, this also figures to be the spot where Sark's team draws a line in the sand and keeps any hopes alive of competing for the SEC title ... though that angle is an easier sell if we know for sure that Hawkins, not Mateer, will be taking the Sooners' snaps. 

Oklahoma is favored by one, unchanged from the opener.

The Pick: Texas 20, Oklahoma 16