College football betting: Expert tabs Indiana vs. Iowa among best Week 5 spots to target
SportsLine college football expert Thomas Casale has selected some Week 5 spots bettors should keep an eye on

Every Thursday during the college football season, I'll release my favorite spots to bet for the upcoming week.
A great example of a "spot" play is Vanderbilt's upset over Alabama last season. The Commodores were returning home after two straight road losses, while Alabama was coming off an emotional win over No. 2 Georgia. Vanderbilt won the game outright as a 23-point underdog. We will see more opportunities like this once the season gets going based on travel, results and injuries.
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Just for clarification, I'll always mention if I bet the game personally. Sometimes, I will like the spot for a certain team but my numbers may not see enough value to make it an official play.
Here are three strong betting spots for Week 5.
Iowa +7.5 vs. Indiana
I'm sure you aren't running to bet against Indiana after the Hoosiers just beat Illinois by 50. However, this is a good spot to back Iowa as a home underdog.
Betting is similar to the stock market. You want to sell high and buy low. After the Hoosiers' big win on Saturday, this is the highest Indiana will be in the betting market. There is a little overreaction because of what we just saw.
This is also Indiana's first road game of the season. As impressive as the Hoosiers have been, they beat Illinois and three inferior opponents at home. Iowa is always a tough place to play, especially when the Hawkeyes are underdogs.
The other thing to keep in mind is this is a sandwich game for Indiana with Oregon on deck. Iowa is one of those locations that is a sleepy place to play. The Hawkeyes have built their brand over the last two decades by beating good teams at home in low-scoring games. It will be interesting to see if the Hoosiers start slow in their first game away from home and fall into that trap.
I will say this might not be a great Iowa defense, and that could be a factor here. However, the lookahead line was Indiana -2.5, and it jumped up five points after the Hoosiers' big win last week. I see some value backing the Hawkeyes as over a touchdown underdog at home.
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Middle Tennessee +7.5 at Kennesaw State
Last week, Kennesaw State was in a good spot. The Owls were home underdogs against an Arkansas State squad that just played Iowa State tough. Now, the shoe is on the other foot, as Kennesaw State is a 7.5-point favorite over Middle Tennessee.
There's no question the Owls are improved this season. They already have two wins and played a tough game at Wake Forest, losing 10-9. The question here though is about value. While Kennesaw State looks like a team that will be profitable as an underdog this season, are we ready to lay over a touchdown with the Owls?
Middle Tennessee is coming off a 42-28 loss at home to Marshall and fell to FCS Austin Peay earlier this season, so this isn't a team I'm dying to bet most weeks. This is more about betting against Kennesaw State as a big favorite. The Owls have played 16 games since moving up to FBS. This is only the second time Kennesaw State has been a favorite, and the first over an FBS opponent. The other time was against FCS Merrimack.
I just can't get there with Kennesaw State being a 7.5-point favorite. I would consider Middle Tennessee at +7 or higher.
Air Force -6.5 vs. Hawaii
This is a great time to buy low on Air Force after back-to-back-losses to Boise State and Utah State.
Over the summer, I went on a couple of shows and talked about Air Force backup quarterback Liam Szarka. Someone I know around the Air Force program told me Szarka is the next great Falcons quarterback and said he would be the starter at some point this season.
Last Saturday against Boise State, Szarka replaced Josh Johnson and started the second half. The result was Szarka putting up 356 total yards, three touchdowns and 23 points against the best defense in the Mountain West Conference.
Air Force's offense has scored at least 30 points in every game but the defense has been shredded, allowing 49 points in consecutive games. While that is a concern, Hawaii isn't a team that can exploit Air Force's biggest weakness.
The Falcons got gashed on the ground by Boise State and Utah State with the two teams combining for 468 rushing yards. The Rainbow Warriors don't pose the same threat though, ranking 116th in rushing offense at 93.8 yards per game.
Hawaii has also played one of the easiest early schedules in the country with their three wins coming over Stanford, Sam Houston, and FCS Portland State. Despite the easy schedule, the Rainbow Warriors are averaging just 22 points per game.
I gave out Air Force early at -4.5 but like them laying anything under a touchdown at home.