College football betting: Expert shares best Week 3 spots to target, including South Florida at Miami

Every Thursday during the college football season, I'll release my favorite spots to bet for the upcoming week. 

A great example of a "spot" play is Vanderbilt's upset over Alabama last season. The Commodores were returning home after two straight road losses, while Alabama was coming off an emotional win over No. 2 Georgia. Vanderbilt won the game outright as a 23-point underdog. We will see more opportunities like this once the season gets going based on travel, results and injuries. 

Just for clarification, I'll always mention if I bet the game personally. Sometimes I will like the spot for a certain team, but my numbers may not see enough value to make it an official play. 

Here are three strong betting spots for Week 3: 

Arkansas State Red Wolves +21 vs Iowa State Cyclones  

Iowa State may be in the worst spot of the season so far. The Cyclones will be playing their fourth straight game to start the year in a stretch that includes a matchup versus Kansas State in Ireland and an emotional win last week at home over in-state rival Iowa. 

Now Iowa State has to travel to Arkansas in what could be a sleepy spot against a not-very-good Arkansas State squad. While the Cyclones are 3-0, there are some metrics that suggest they are a little overvalued in the betting market, especially on defense. 

According to PFF, Iowa State's defense ranks 114th in pass rush and 91st in coverage. The hope here is Arkansas State quarterback Jaylen Raynor can take advantage of these weaknesses and keep the Red Wolves close. 

Betting a "spot" is just one part of the equation. There are obviously other variables that go into making a wager. However, I think Arkansas State is worth a play at +21. I wouldn't go below that number, though. Now, hold your nose and hang on for dear life. 

Miami Hurricanes -17.5 vs. South Florida Bulls  

This is an awful spot for South Florida. After opening the season with two upset wins over Boise State and Florida, the Bulls now have to travel to face a rested Miami squad. 

I give South Florida a ton of credit for going on the road and upsetting Florida. However, I thought that outcome had more to do with the Gators not being prepared and playing sloppy. Florida committed 11 penalties and went just 4-of-12 on third downs. 

Ironically, if the Bulls had lost last week, the situation would be reserved. Miami faces Florida next week. However, now the Hurricanes won't be caught looking ahead after South Florida's big upset. And remember, Miami head coach Mario Cristobal is old-school U from the '90s. He hates losing to Florida schools. 

Florida closed -18 and the Hurricanes are -17.5. I have Miami rated quite a bit higher than the Gators, so last week's results are creating some value on the number. I took Miami -16.5 and would back the Canes at anything -18 or less. 

Old Dominion Monarchs +7 vs. Virginia Tech Hokies

Old Dominion is a team I loved entering the season. I bet the Monarchs to win the Sun Belt and took them in Week 1 as big underdogs against Indiana. I had planned to bet Old Dominion here as well, although the line moved so fast that I missed the good number. 

Obviously I'm not the only person who thinks this a terrible spot for Virginia Tech. The line opened Hokies -13.5 and dropped to 7.5 in a few hours before setting at Old Dominion +7. You rarely see a six-point line movement that fast for a college football game. 

There are a couple of things going on with Virginia Tech that explains why all the early money came in on Old Dominion. First, the Hokies are coming off two straight games against SEC teams to start the season. Virginia Tech lost a close game to South Carolina in the opener then followed that up by getting blown out in the second half at home against Vanderbilt last week. 

The other reason is Virginia Tech head coach Brent Pry came into the season on the hot seat. Well, his seat is burning hot after starting 0-2. If he loses at home to Old Dominion, it could be lights out. There's a lot of pressure on Pry this week, and sometimes that transfers over to the players. 

I mentioned all offseason that Old Dominion is a dangerous team because of quarterback Colton Joseph. If the Hokies' defense doesn't come to play, Joseph will cause a lot of problems for them. The Monarchs just missed my card because the value is gone in the line, although I won't be surprised if they win outright on Saturday. I might look to get in on Old Dominion with a live bet during the game.