College football's 25 biggest boom-or-bust players for 2026: DJ Lagway, Nico Iamaleava eye breakouts

In a sport often defined by volatility, every contender in college football enters the season with at least one player capable of swinging expectations in either direction. We've attempted to identify the nation's 25 biggest boom-or-bust players within the Power Four ranks, a collection of former five-star prospects, high-profile transfers, unproven quarterbacks or veterans facing one final opportunity to deliver. 

Some could become breakout stars and fuel a run toward the College Football Playoff, while others may struggle under expanded roles, new schemes or mounting pressure. 

These are not necessarily the nation's best players, but they rank among its most important variables, and many are all-conference caliber talents. Their ceilings are enormous, their floors are concerning, and their performances could determine whether their teams rise into contention or spend the fall chasing answers instead.

1. DJ Lagway, QB, Baylor

We've already seen both extremes from this talented but inconsistent signal caller. As a freshman at Florida, DJ Lagway flashed rare arm talent, explosive playmaking and the ability to elevate an offense. A year later, injuries and inconsistency led to 14 interceptions in a four-win season. 

Now Baylor is betting that a homecoming unlocks the former five-star quarterback's best campaign. If Lagway stays healthy and regains confidence, he could become one of the Big 12's biggest stars. If the turnover issues and durability concerns remain, Baylor's season could unravel quickly. 

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2. Ryan Coleman-Williams, WR, Alabama

At his best, Ryan Coleman-Williams is the nation's most talented wideout not named Jeremiah Smith or Malachi Toney. At his worst, he's watching from the sideline for Alabama's offense after another drop or ill-timed route. We've seen a superstar ceiling and a frustrating floor for the rising junior. His true-freshman breakout against Georgia showcased the speed, body control and game-breaking ability that made him a national sensation.

By the numbers

Then came a sophomore season plagued by drops and a lack of explosive plays. If Williams regains dependable hands, he becomes Alabama's premier weapon and an All-America candidate. If those mistakes linger, his inconsistency could cap the Crimson Tide's entire passing game with a first-year starter at quarterback. Perhaps a jersey number switch is good luck for Alabama's most important playmaker.

3. Makhi Hughes, RB, Houston 

This bruising ballcarrier's career includes two entirely different realities. At Tulane, Makhi Hughes eclipsed 1,300 yards rushing in consecutive seasons and looked like one of the nation's most dependable workhorses. At Oregon, he virtually disappeared, managing only 17 carries last season.

After reuniting with Willie Fritz at Houston, Hughes has the familiarity and opportunity to resurface. If his Tulane form returns, he transforms the Cougars' offense. If Oregon exposed limitations, this comeback could stall before it ever gains traction in the Big 12. Behind him is sophomore Re'Shaun Sanford II, who suffered a season-ending injury last fall and is ready to perform if Hughes goes missing.

4. Lincoln Kienholz, QB, Louisville

This is Lincoln Kienholz's opportunity to prove that years of waiting at Ohio State prepared him for something greater. The former four-star quarterback signed with Louisville without much meaningful experience, but Jeff Brohm's offense offers a chance to showcase his arm talent and mobility. There is no longer a developmental runway for Kienholz. Louisville will contend in the ACC if he thrives. If he struggles, his career may be remembered more for untapped potential than legitimate production as a starter.

5. LaNorris Sellers, QB, South Carolina

This quarterback's physical gifts remain undeniable, but consistency has not always followed. LaNorris Sellers flashed takeover ability as a powerful runner with a dangerous downfield arm in 2024, yet stretches of uneven decision-making last season limited the Gamecocks' offense. Enter Kendal Briles, whose system elevated his previous two quarterbacks and should maximize Sellers in space. 

By the numbers

If that marriage works, Sellers could become a national star — again. If the passing issues lingering the Gamecocks fail to protect their prized investment, South Carolina's ceiling collapses during a pivotal season for Shane Beamer. It's up to Briles to figure out the ideal blend of point-and-shoot passing and pushing Sellers outside of the pocket to let him improvise as a runner.

6. Chris Bracy, S, Michigan

Intel from those close to the program suggests the Wolverines are expecting an impactful campaign from Chris Bracy, who initially played at UAB before getting hurt and spent last season in the secondary at Memphis. He's never done it at the Power Four level, but after recording 81 tackles with the Tigers, he should provide Michigan with a boost back there alongside returning veteran Rod Moore.

7. Nico Iamaleava, QB, UCLA

This former five-star is running out of time to turn elite traits into consistent quarterback play. Bob Chesney needs an immediate tone-setter to be a player in the Big Ten and not a Year 1 rebuild. Nico Iamaleava has the arm talent and mobility to provide it. The Bruins become dangerous quickly if everything clicks. It's the inconsistency that needs to be improved from this signal caller.

8. Richard Young, RB, Colorado

Take your pick of the Buffaloes' portal pickups this cycle that has found themselves on the first team for Deion Sanders. This former five-star prospect never carved out a consistent role during three years at Alabama, but the physical traits and recruiting pedigree remain intriguing. Colorado offers the touches Richard Young never received in Tuscaloosa with Brennan Marion's go-go offense, along with a chance to finally prove he can handle a featured workload. 

9. Xavier Chaplin, OT, Florida State

Xavier Chaplin is on his third program after spending a couple of years at Virginia Tech before posting his best season last fall at Auburn. Chaplin was whistled for a false start in the red zone in Week 0, but performed better overall than the Seminoles' other starting offensive tackle by comparison. Chaplin's success may hinge on Mike Norvell's ability to rediscover his offensive touch. With Norvell calling plays in what amounts to a make-or-break season for him, the opportunity is there for Chapin to become a central piece up front. However, projection remains part of the equation. 

10. Keon Keeley, EDGE, Notre Dame

At some point, potential must become impact for Keon Keeley, and that point is now. He'll be in the early rotation at edge rusher for the Fighting Irish, but isn't going to see significant snaps unless he proves he can be a reliable, every-down factor for the first time in his career. Keeley could further bolster this defense if he becomes a disruptive edge presence. If not, his career will be remembered far more for projection than performance. Keeley had three sacks last season at Alabama, a career-best from the No. 3 overall player in the 2023 recruiting cycle.

11. Luke Work, OT, Missouri

The Tigers targeted Luke Work as a plug-and-play signing from Mississippi State, given the talent losses along the offensive front, and they're going to need him to be a steady addition. He'll start at right tackle, protecting fellow transfer Austin Simmons (Ole Miss) in what should be a run-based attack under Chip Lindsey, with Ahmad Hardy and Jamal Roberts returning in the backfield. Work played in 22 games, including 14 starts, over his two seasons with the Bulldogs, with mixed results across multiple positions.

12. Chase Sowell, WR, Penn State

After consecutive impressive seasons at East Carolina, Chase Sowell's production dipped a bit at Iowa State as a junior, with 32 receptions for 500 yards, after going for 34 catches and 678 yards in nine games the previous campaign. Sowell, like many other Iowa State players, followed Matt Campbell to Penn State, where he has earned a starting role on offense. Brett Eskliden should take some of the pressure off Sowell, who could have a big season from the X position.

13. Jayvon Thomas, CB, SMU

One of three new starters in the secondary, Jayvon Thomas is the only Power Four addition at the back end for the Mustangs. However, he also played the fewest snaps last season after never cracking Texas A&M's starting lineup, playing behind star corner Will Lee III. SMU brought numerous Dallas natives home this portal cycle and is hoping the recruiting pipeline pays off. More than half of SMU's defense will be transfer starters, making the opportunity to gel in the early-season slate paramount for co-coordinators Maurice Crum and Rickey Hunley.

14. Dylan Edwards, RB, Kansas

If Dylan Edwards is a 1,000-yard running back, the Jayhawks are going bowling as a factor in the Big 12. If he's quiet and subdued as a playmaker, this Kansas offense will struggle. He's electric in the open field and one of the nation's best when he gets to the edge with a career average of 5.8 yards per carry, but has only shown flashes since bursting onto the scene as a true freshman at Colorado in 2023. He rushed for 546 yards and five touchdowns as a sophomore at Kansas State before only playing in four games last season. 

15. Christopher Vizzina, QB, Clemson

Christopher Vizzina enters the season with Clemson's keys to the offense under coordinator Chad Morris, but his margin for error feels thin. The former blue-chip prospect waited his turn and now must prove he can elevate an offense that has lacked consistency. Tait Reynolds is the talented option waiting behind him, meaning every uneven performance will amplify the noise. We've seen this before at Clemson -- from Cole Stoudt to Deshaun Watson and Kelly Bryant to Trevor Lawrence. If Vizzina settles in quickly, Clemson has a chance. If not, Dabo Swinney could face an early quarterback decision this fall.

16. Ethan Day, EDGE, Utah

Ethan Day, a North Texas transfer who accumulated 53 tackles and 4.5 sacks for the Mean Green last season, has huge shoes to fill off the edge as the replacement for John Henry Daley -- Utah's top defender, who left for Michigan. Day hasn't yet proved himself at the Power Four level, and considering Daley's production from last season, he faces sizable expectations.

17. Dilin Jones, RB, LSU

Speaking with sources close to the program, most are unsure who will be the Tigers' lead back this season. Dilin Jones was one of three running backs who earned first-team reps during camp, joining Harlem Berry and Caden Durham. Jones started seven games at Wisconsin last fall, averaging 3.9 yards per carry before a turf toe injury that required surgery sidelined him for much of the second half. Turf toe can permanently reduce acceleration strengths, but not in all cases. LSU is hoping Jones is a difference-maker.

18. Zeke Durham-Campbell, EDGE, West Virginia

One of seven new defensive starters from the portal for the Mountaineers, Zeke Durham-Campbell is another Group of Six difference-maker hoping to make an easy transition to a Power Four program as an every-down threat. Durham-Campbell's career began at Division II Lenoir-Rhyne before he transferred to Louisiana Tech for two seasons and played last fall at Coastal Carolina, where he was a third-team All-Sun Belt nominee. In 13 games in 2025, Durham-Campbell registered 42 tackles and 5.5 sacks.

19. Austin Romaine, LB, Texas Tech

The assumption is that this former All-Big 12 Kansas State linebacker will alleviate much of the leadership and statistical loss the Red Raiders lost following the NFL departures of Romello Height, Jacob Rodriguez and David Bailey within the front. However, those were three dominant defenders, and Austin Romaine's going to need help from the all-new pass rush in front of him. Texas Tech is well-coached on defense, but expecting Romaine to have All-American numbers might be asking a bit much considering how much the Red Raiders replaced in the trenches.

20. Jordan Lyle, RB, Miami

All signs early this offseason and recently out of fall camp pointed to Jordan Lyle challenging for RB2 carries behind Mark Fletcher Jr., but that came prior to his arrest for aggravated fleeing and reckless driving. His situation will be handled internally during what amounts to a defining campaign for the junior. Lyle rushed for 400 yards in 2024 before a high-ankle sprain torpedoed his progress last fall. He's healthy again, but needs to ensure his focus is 100% on the team.

21. Jordan Norman, OLB, Tennessee

This Tulane transfer steps into a starring role in the SEC at the Vols' hybrid linebacker-edge position after Chaz Coleman was dismissed. The opportunity has arrived faster than expected following the personnel decision for a player who managed six sacks in the American. Jordan Norman's ability to handle that jump remains uncertain. Given the schedule this season with Jim Knowles taking over as defensive coordinator, the Volunteers could have a glaring weakness off the edge unless Norman is an instant difference-maker.

22. Preston Zachman, S, Indiana

Playing his seventh season of college football, Preston Zachman missed the final nine games of 2025 due to a leg injury and was signed to help the Hoosiers overcome the loss of Louis Moore and Devan Boykin at the back end. Zachman has 20 career starts with seven interceptions over 35 games, but he'll be in the spotlight for the first time after spending all of his career at Wisconsin. Having a playmaker like Amare Ferrell beside him should help.

23. Rashid Williams, WR, Washington

This boom-or-bust label centers on availability and whether the former four-star prospect can finally turn flashes into sustained production. The fourth-year Washington receiver started twice last season before a collarbone injury sidelined him for two months. Just as Rashid Williams neared a November return, a practice accident -- his hand became caught in a teammate's face mask -- ended that comeback bid. At 6-foot-1 and 205 pounds, Williams has the physical tools to become a featured weapon. Now, staying healthy is everything for a starter who's never had more than 11 catches in a season during his career.

24. CJ Baxter, RB, Kentucky

CJ Baxter arrives at Kentucky with the pedigree of a former five-star prospect, but his Texas career produced more projection than consistent dominance. Injuries interrupted his development, and his performances fluctuated when opportunities arrived following his splashy 659-yard showing as a freshman in 2023. Kentucky needs Baxter to become a dependable centerpiece in Will Stein's offense, not merely a talented rotational option. If healthy, he owns difference-making upside. If the inconsistency follows him, the Wildcats could be searching for answers in the backfield again.

25. Isaiah Horton, WR, Texas A&M

Isaiah Horton brings immediate intrigue to Texas A&M after spending last season at Alabama, but his projection comes with some variance. The former highly regarded playmaker has the size and athleticism to become a matchup problem, especially within a new offensive setup, but didn't become an impact player at Miami until his third season in Coral Gables (2024). The Aggies have had success with portal adds at the position, and Horton is expected to be part of a triumvirate that includes Ashton Bethel-Roman and Mario Craver after the offense lost KC Concepcion to the NFL Draft.