College football 2025: Looking ahead to marquee Week 1 showdown between Texas and Ohio State
SportsLine's Josh Nagel previews and gives his top play for this much-anticipated clash between the Longhorns and Buckeyes

In the ever-changing college football landscape, even the scheduling has become a zero-sum game.
For years now, the sprinkling of FBS contests we were treated to on the Saturday ahead of Labor Day weekend were officially grouped under the ambiguous "Week 0," to the amusement of some, indifference of others and confusion of many.
But just when it appeared the college football viewing world had come to embrace Week 0, it was unceremoniously stripped from us. Starting this year, the NCAA no longer acknowledges Week 0 and has decided the more practical route involves grouping all FBS games that take place on each of the first two college football weekends under the all-encompassing umbrella of Week 1.
Fair enough. With all due respect to the five contests taking place on the first Saturday of Week 1, we'll take a look at the unofficial main event the following week. This features the defending champion Ohio State Buckeyes hosting the top-ranked Texas Longhorns on Saturday, Aug. 30 (Noon ET kickoff).
It's the first time in modern college football history that the country's top-ranked team is an underdog in its season opener but, for those with a basic sense of how oddsmakers work, it's no surprise coming against the third-ranked Buckeyes.
The clubs met in the semifinals of last year's College Football Playoff, with Ohio State notching a 28-14 victory that saw the Longhorns' self-destructive ways ruin what was an otherwise respectable performance.
Of course, this rematch will hardly resemble the memorable battle that took place in January. The Buckeyes had 14 players taken in April's NFL Draft, including star receiver Emeka Egbuka and flashy running back TreVeyon Henderson, both of whom are expected to make an immediate impact at the pro level. The pro departures also include defensive end Jack Sawyer, whose forced fumble and 83-yard touchdown return sealed Ohio State's playoff victory over Texas.
The Longhorns saw 12 players taken in the draft, including first-round receiver Matthew Golden, tight end Gunnar Helm, running back Jaydon Blue and quarterback Quinn Ewers.
A lot of the intrigue surrounding this 2025 college football Week 1 matchup involves Texas QB Arch Manning, who enters his first season as the starter as the Heisman trophy betting favorite. Meanwhile, first-year Ohio State starter Julian Sayin, an Alabama transfer, threw 12 passes last year for the Buckeyes but has yet to lead the team under center. He will have a blue-chip target in celebrated receiver Jeremiah Smith, who joins Manning as among the Heisman favorites.
When live college football point spreads opened at sportsbooks weeks ago, Ohio State was a 4.5-point favorite with an over/under total of 51 points. The spread has since plummeted to Ohio State -2.5, suggesting serious action on the underdog Longhorns, and the total has dropped to 48 or 47.5, depending on the outlet, with early action coming in on the Under.
With so many variables in play, we're going to pass on making an ATS recommendation. We would have leaned toward Texas +4.5 but, with those important early key numbers now out of play (3 and 4), the value has been stripped from the Longhorns. They rate to have more talent man for man, but it's never easy for a visitor to win at Ohio Stadium, better known as the famed Horseshoe. Moreover, Texas has been known for its inability to close out tough games under head coach Steve Sarkisian.
But we believe the early money on the total has the right idea, and our recommended play for Ohio State vs. Texas is:
Under 48
Both clubs have the highest amount of returning talent on the defensive side. The Buckeyes will boast one of the most experienced defensive lines in the country, while the Longhorns should have one of the best linebacking groups and enough strength up front to again be among the top units in the country. Even though this total has lost some value, we'll still take the Under 48 and expect a defense-oriented battle that ends in the 24-20 range.
Josh Nagel is the assistant managing editor of SportsLine and one of its top college football analysts. He finished last year on a 10-3 run with his ATS selections.