Boise State vs. South Florida prediction, odds, time: 2025 college football Week 1 picks by expert on 14-3 run

The 25th-ranked Boise State Broncos take on the South Florida Bulls in a Week 1 college football non-conference season opener on Thursday. Boise State will look to extend two streaks this season -- consecutive winning seasons (27) and consecutive seasons qualifying for a bowl game (27). The Broncos (12-2 in 2024), who won the Mountain West Conference at 7-0, were 5-1 on the road last season. The Bulls (7-6 in 2024), who finished tied for sixth in the American Conference, were 3-3 on their home field a year ago.

Kickoff from Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, Fla., is set for 5:30 p.m. ET. This will be the first meeting between the teams. The Broncos are 6.5-point favorites in the latest Boise State vs. South Florida odds from SportsLine consensus, while the over/under for total points scored is 63.5. Before making any Boise State vs. South Florida picks, make sure you check out what SportsLine expert, Josh Nagel, has to say. New users can also target the DraftKings promo code, which offers $300 in bonus bets instantly plus over $200 off NFL Sunday Ticket:

Nagel is a Reno-based analyst and radio host who has worked in the sports handicapping industry for more than 20 years. SportsLine's assistant managing editor has covered the wagering industry on a variety of platforms, and has won numerous sports handicapping contests. He's an incredible 14-3 (+1268) on his last 17 picks involving Boise State. Anyone who has followed him could be way up.

Now, Nagel has zoned in on Boise State vs. South Florida. You can head to SportsLine now to see his picks. Here are several college football betting lines for South Florida vs. Boise State:

Why Boise State can cover

Junior quarterback Maddux Madsen returns to lead the Broncos. In 14 games last season, he completed 247 of 396 passes for 3,018 yards and 23 touchdowns with six interceptions. He also rushed 57 times for 221 yards (3.9 average) and five scores. In a 31-14 College Football Playoff quarterfinal loss to Penn State on Dec. 31, he completed 23 of 35 passes (65.7%) for 304 yards and one touchdown. He was intercepted three times.

His top returning target is senior tight end Matt Lauter. In 14 games played in 2024, he registered 47 receptions for 619 yards (13.2 average) and seven touchdowns. In the loss to Penn State, he caught four passes for 96 yards and one touchdown. He caught four passes for 96 yards and two touchdowns in a 45-24 win over Washington State on Sept. 28. See which team to back at SportsLine. 

Why South Florida can cover

After missing a big chunk of last season due to a leg injury, senior quarterback Byrum Brown returns. He played in five games a year ago, finishing with 836 yards passing, two touchdowns and a 59.1 completion percentage before being lost for the season. He also rushed 68 times for 269 yards and three touchdowns. In his sophomore campaign in 2023, he completed 64.8% of his passes for 3,292 yards and 26 touchdowns, with 11 interceptions. He also carried 203 times for 809 yards (4.0 average) and 11 touchdowns.

Brown's top target could be junior wide receiver Keshaun Singleton. In just six games a year ago, he caught 26 passes for 408 yards (15.7 average) and three touchdowns. In a 41-39 five-overtime win over San Jose State in the Hawaii Bowl, he caught four passes for 41 yards, including a long of 17. In a 35-28 loss to Rice on Nov. 30, he caught seven passes for 107 yards (15.3 average) and one touchdown. See which team to back at SportsLine, and new users can also check out the latest bet365 bonus code to get $200 in bonus bets after placing a $5 bet:

How to make Boise State vs. South Florida picks

For Thursday's Boise State vs. South Florida matchup, Nagel is leaning under the total, but he also says a critical X-factor makes one side of the spread a must-back. See what it is at SportsLine.

Who covers in South Florida vs. Boise State and what critical x-factor do you need to know about? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Boise State vs. South Florida spread you need to jump, all from the expert who returned $1,268 to $100 players over his last 17 Boise State picks, and find out.