Tom Fornelli's College Football Power Ratings: Big Ten hype gives way to hard truths

There isn't a conference in the country that has fumbled the bag quite like the Big Ten this year. Now, some of that is due to things outside of the league's control. Ohio State was living up to expectations, but is now dealing with an injury to its starting quarterback. Oregon stumbled out of the gate, but the poor start has been exacerbated by Dante Moore being sidelined for a month.

Still, even with those injuries, there's no denying the Big Ten has struggled mightily this season, and the timing is terrible. After all, the league had won three straight national titles with three different teams, and many projected that Oregon could become the fourth. Even the most ardent of SEC wonks begrudgingly admitted that the SEC had lost its grip on the sport.

And the Big Ten has thrown it all away through the first half of the season. You only have to look at the standings to recognize it, but the league isn't the only one. We've seen top contenders stumble in all the Power Four leagues so far, but the Big Ten is in a class of its own when it comes to failing to meet expectations.

From a gambling perspective, Big Ten teams are only 36-44-2 against the spread when favored this year. That .450 winning percentage is the second-worst among all conferences, just barely ahead of the American at .449. However, while the cover rates are nearly identical, the margins are not.

Big Ten favorites, on average, are failing to cover the spread by 1.82 points per game. The next worst league is once again the American, but they're failing to cover by 0.44 points per game. Here's a look at how things break down across all leagues.

To further drive this home, Big Ten favorites are struggling like this in a season when favorites are covering 52.6% of the time by an average of 1.16 points! Favorites have been relatively crushing it all year, just not in the Big Ten.

And it isn't hard to figure out which teams are primarily responsible. The Big Ten had seven teams ranked in the top 20 of the preseason AP Top 25. Ohio State has done its job. The other six (Oregon, Indiana, USC, Michigan, Washington, and Penn State) are a combined 8-28 ATS as favorites this season, and are failing to cover by an average of 7.76 points per game. That's more than a touchdown! It certainly doesn't make power rating them any easier.

Fornelli Power Ratings

1	Georgia
Like a lot of our top teams, the Bulldogs had last week off. As I wrote last week, while Auburn deserves credit for winning, it's not as if Georgia played poorly in their loss. Though I'm sure Kirby Smart hasn't been patting anybody on the back this week as they prepare for Florida. Last Week: 1 | Title Odds: +450
2	Miami (Fla.)
Did you notice in the table above that the ACC is one of three leagues where favorites are below 50% ATS, yet the average cover margin is still in the positive? Well, Miami is a big reason why. The Canes are 5-2 ATS this season and covering by an average of 5.00 points per game. Still, they can't hold a candle to Wake Forest, which is only 3-2 ATS when favored but covering by a hilarious 15.4 points per game. Last Week: 2 | Title Odds: +580
3	Ohio State
Ohio State was off this weekend, which allowed them some extra time to prepare Luke Fahey for his new role as the team's starting quarterback. You have to think there's a part of Ryan Day wishing USC had beaten Wisconsin over the weekend. Not because the Trojans were ever going to overlook Ohio State (turns out they may have been overlooking Wisconsin!), but because now Lincoln Riley has his back against the wall. Last Week: 3 | Title Odds: +530
4	Notre Dame
The Irish had the week off as well, and got to sit at home and stew in their loss to BYU a little longer. Of course, watching BYU lose probably didn't feel great, because this is a team that needs as much help as it can get on its resume. Kind of makes you wonder what they might do to Navy this week to make a win look more impressive. Last Week: 4 | Title Odds: +475
5	Alabama
Keelon Russell and the Tide had a nice bounceback from the Tennessee loss, beating Texas A&M 31-20. Sure, it was a little closer than most Bama fans would've liked, but I'm not concerned about it. Hell, even Russell's interception was one of the most impressive interceptions you'll ever see. The throw itself wasn't great, but the fact he escaped like 15 tackles before making a bad throw was cool as hell. Last Week: 6 | Title Odds: +1200
6	LSU
The Tigers make a large jump this week, and it's not all metrics-related. No, a good portion of this is a manual adjustment. Yeah, I'm making a judgment call. We've seen Jackson Harris separate and become a bit of a dude at the receiver spot over the last few weeks, and Trey'Dez Green was back in action against Auburn. Now LSU looks to have two real threats in the passing game, which makes this offense a bit more dangerous than it looked before Green got hurt. Last Week: NR | Title Odds: +1300
7	Indiana
At some point it's not a trend, it's just who you are. In Big Ten play, the Indiana offense is averaging only 2.14 points per possession with a success rate of 41.9%. Those are middling numbers. If we remove the Rutgers game, those numbers drop to 2.02 and 39.5%. In theory, the schedule eases up a bit now, so you'd like to see improvement down the stretch. But if we don't, the defending champs are likely a one-and-done in the playoff. Last Week: 5 | Title Odds: +750
8	Ole Miss
There's no question the Rebels struggled against Texas on Saturday night. The run defense that smothered Mizzou the week before was not the same in Austin, and the offense had its worst game of the season by miles. All that said, they're still one of the more dangerous teams in the country when they play their best, so I didn't dock them much. The fact they played so poorly and still had a chance to win the game late says a lot. Last Week: 8 | Title Odds: +1850
9	Texas
Yes, the Longhorns are behind Ole Miss after just beating them. It happens. What impressed me most about this game was how well the Texas defense played despite not having Colin Simmons. What I wasn't as impressed with was the offense. I still don't think that's fixed, though if they can find a way to keep things going with Raleek Brown and a healthy Hollywood Smothers, that would change things. When you have an elite defense, relying on your run game rather than your turnover-prone QB has proven a solid formula before. Just saying. Last Week: 11 | Title Odds: +1500
10	Utah
Devon Dampier threw for 204 yards and rushed for 150. That put him on an exclusive list of Big 12 QBs to pass and rush for at least 150 in a game with Eric Crouch and Vince Young. Pretty good company! Of course, Dampier also scored a touchdown when Houston let him in with two minutes left, which gave the Cougars the ball back. Had Dampier just gone down, it would've forced Houston to burn its timeouts. Luckily for Devon and the Utes, they survived (though it got hairy) and stayed undefeated. Still, I grow a little less confident in this team every week. This move back up to the top 10 is more about the teams above them that fell. Last Week: NR | Title Odds: +4800
11	Oregon
I feel a sharp pain in my temples when I see Oregon here. I should make the executive decision to punt them out of the top 12. I know, but here's the thing: even though they lost, they outplayed Illinois in most aspects of the game! Illinois hit more big plays on offense, including a touchdown to ice the game that was deflected and required an incredible catch by Collin Dixon. The Ducks also missed three field goals, and had they stuck with the run game, they probably would've won. The fact they didn't stick to it seemed to be the last strike for offensive coordinator Drew Mehringer, who was fired Sunday. Last Week: 7 | Title Odds: +35000
12	Tennessee
It wasn't hard to see the road loss to South Carolina coming after the win over Alabama, and I didn't dock the Vols all that much. Everything I wrote last week about this team still applies. I'm very skeptical about this offense, but the defense gives this team a chance to beat nearly any opponent it faces. Last Week: 9 | Title Odds: +5600

Dropped Out: Texas Tech, BYU