B1G Time: Ohio State vs. Michigan encore in Indianapolis? Terry Smith's case for Penn State's full-time job

It has long felt a foregone conclusion that the Big Ten Championship Game will be No. 1 Ohio State versus No. 2 Indiana this season. However, the Big Ten wants you to know that this is not the case. It turns out there are actually seven different title game scenarios that are still possible this weekend.

However, the reality of the situation is that of those seven scenarios, three are still Ohio State versus Indiana. They just might have records that aren't 9-0 when they play. Indiana could be 8-1 in the other two. Essentially, if Ohio State beats Michigan this weekend, Indiana is in no matter what it does against Purdue. Indiana is a 28.5-point favorite against Purdue, so I think we all know what it's going to do, but, hey, crazier things have happened. Like, did you know there was one time when Indiana went to the College Football Playoff in consecutive seasons? Insane!

Also, of the seven "different" scenarios, there's only one that doesn't feature either Ohio State or Indiana. There is potential for a Michigan versus Oregon matchup. This would happen if Purdue upset Indiana, Michigan upset Ohio State, and Oregon beat Washington. In a way, this might be the league's best path to getting four teams into the College Football Playoff.

Ohio State and Indiana would certainly remain in the field (though I'd love to see the anger some people would have over an Indiana team with a loss to Purdue getting in over a team with "three good losses"), and if Michigan beat Oregon to win the conference, there's a decent chance the Ducks would still sneak in as well. The committee does not like to punish championship game losers too harshly, and if Oregon is 11-2 with a loss in the Big Ten Championship, it could get preferential treatment over a 10-2 team that had the weekend off. This could be a Notre Dame nightmare scenario.

Still, while this scenario brings potential for the Big Ten to get four teams in the field, there's another scenario the Big Ten might want even more. I know it's the one Fox (which is broadcasting the game this season) would like.

It's similar to the last scenario we discussed. If Purdue upsets Indiana, Michigan upsets Ohio State, but then Oregon loses to Washington instead of beating it, the Big Ten Championship Game would be, you guessed it, Ohio State versus Michigan. It would come down to record against common opponents, and both Ohio State and Michigan would be 2-0 against Purdue and Wisconsin. Indiana would be 1-1, knocking the Hoosiers out.

Imagine if that were to happen, and Michigan beat Ohio State twice in the same season, but the Buckeyes went on to win the national title anyway. I don't know that Ohio State fans would know how they feel about all of it.

What are the chances of this happening? Well, if we use the current odds for this weekend's games (not a perfect measure, but a measure), a parlay of Purdue, Michigan and Washington all winning pays out at +28420. Using implied odds, that's a 0.35% chance of it happening!

Penn State and Terry Smith

There is momentum building among some circles at Penn State for the school to remove the interim tag from Terry Smith's name and make him the permanent coach to replace James Franklin, who has already found another job not too far down the road at Virginia Tech. Smith certainly has the support of the locker room.

The last three weeks have been great weeks for Penn State. They nearly pulled off the upset over Indiana and have followed up on it by beating Michigan State and Nebraska. I don't know if that alone should be enough to give Smith the job, though.

The decision about the interim coach is no different than hiring a coach in any situation. Sometimes, making the interim permanent works out incredibly well, and you win multiple national titles. That's what happened at Clemson with Dabo Swinney. He finished the back half of the 2008 season as the interim after Tommy Bowden's resignation, and went 4-3. The decision wasn't popular among the Clemson faithful, but it worked out pretty well!

That's generally the exception to the rule, though, and you don't want to get caught up in the emotional aspect of a decision. Penn State athletic director Pat Kraft has a monumental decision to make, and he's making it for a program that is a desirable destination for a lot of coaches across the country.

Terry Smith should definitely be considered, but many of the players in the locker room fighting for him to get the job won't be there next year. Their endorsement should only go so far.

Coaching malpractice

Michigan State blew a 17-7 fourth-quarter lead against Iowa Saturday night, losing 20-17, and has nobody to blame but itself. The Iowa offense was held to only 142 yards through the first three quarters of the game, and the lone touchdown it scored came on a 62-yard punt return from Punt Return God Kaden Wetjen in the first quarter.

You might think this would've taught Michigan State a lesson about giving Wetjen a chance to do that. After all, he's one of the best punt returners in the country, and had already returned two punts for touchdowns this season. It did not! What I haven't told you yet was that the 62-yard touchdown was Wetjen's second punt return of the game. Yes, he'd already returned one 45 yards earlier in the quarter, but Iowa QB Mark Gronowski threw an interception on Iowa's first play afterwards.

It was after Michigan State went three-and-out following the interception that it tempted fate again, and Wetjen burned them.

So, later, in the fourth quarter, with the Spartans clinging to a 17-10 lead with under three minutes to play, they wouldn't punt the ball to Wetjen again, would they? 

They would. 

Wetjen would return this one 40 yards to set Iowa up in Michigan State territory. Five plays later Gronowski hit Jacob Gill with a beautiful throw (and better catch) in the end zone to tie the game at 17-17.

The good news is, Michigan State seemed to finally learn its lesson after blowing the lead. The Spartans went with a pooch punt from midfield with QB Allessio Milivojevic on the ensuing possession, and perhaps Milivojevic should've been punting all night. He kicked it out of bounds at the 21, denying Wetjen a chance to make the Spartans look idiotic again.

Then Iowa marched downfield and kicked a game-winning field goal as time expired. Alas, sometimes even the correct decisions don't help.

Fun fact of the week

Following their 27-10 upset over Illinois Saturday night, the Wisconsin Badgers now have two wins over Power Four opponents with winning records in the last three weeks. That also gives them two on the season. That's as many wins over Power Four teams with winning records as Miami, Ole Miss, Pitt, Texas, Utah and Vanderbilt currently have. It's more than teams like Arizona, Iowa, Missouri (0), Tennessee (0), and Washington have.

I only bring this up because a lot of those teams might be ranked by the College Football Playoff this week. I wonder how much consideration Wisconsin will receive? I mean, look at their overall strength of schedule! I'm told that must be accounted for!

Going with my gut

Every week I pick the Big Ten games against the spread based on nothing but my gut reaction to the number. No digging into numbers -- just vibes, baby. I even track my record to embarrass myself publicly. Any game not included is due to there not being a posted line at time of publishing.

Ohio State at Michigan: I might be opening myself up to looking ridiculous here, but even though this Michigan team is better than last year's team, I just don't see it happening again. That said, while I don't think the Wolverines will pull off the upset, I don't think they'll be blown out of the water, either. Still, I'm leaning Ohio State. If the spread was 10 points or more I'd be on Michigan, but I don't trust Bryce Underwood enough yet. Ohio State -9.5

Iowa at Nebraska -- Nebraska +6.5
Indiana at Purdue -- Indiana -28.5
Oregon at Washington -- Oregon -6.5
Wisconsin at Minnesota -- Wisconsin +1.5
Penn State at Rutgers -- Rutgers +12.5
UCLA at USC -- USC -21.5
Maryland at Michigan State -- Maryland +3.5
Northwestern at Illinois -- Northwestern +7.5

Last Week: 4-4
Season: 57-48