Ohio State, Indiana and everyone else: Sifting through 2025 Big Ten Championship Game scenarios for contenders

Guess who's nearing lock status for an appearance in the 2025 Big Ten Championship Game? During a season of firsts, Indiana adds another program first to its laurels this fall if Curt Cignetti and the Hoosiers beat up on a favorable slate down the stretch.

Looking over more than a dozen Big Ten Championship Game tiebreakers, top-ranked Ohio State and No. 2 Indiana are running roughshod through the conference and make things easy on conference officials by cruising next month.

However, the path to Indianapolis is a bit trickier for the unbeaten Buckeyes, who could see pressure from a few others inside the top 25 with only one conference loss up to this point. The Big Ten produced four playoff teams last season and could equal that number in a couple of week if Michigan, Iowa or USC is able to win out from here and get to a 10th victory.

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Here's a comprehensive look at each team's path to the 2025 Big Ten Championship Game entering the final month of the regular season:

Indiana (8-0, 5-0)

Clearest path: The Hoosiers have the most favorable stretch of games to finish out the season, perhaps in Cignetti's coaching career. That's not hyperbole; Indiana's remaining opponents are a combined 1-17 in conference play this season. Avoid a massive upset as a double-digit favorite and the Hoosiers will play in Indianapolis.

Chaos scenario: Perhaps Penn State gives Indiana trouble at Beaver Stadium on Nov. 8? The Hoosiers have only beaten the Nittany Lions twice all-time, but this season's vastly different than those others. It's Indiana with the better team this time around despite Penn State being ranked No. 2 this fall before capsizing under recently fired coach James Franklin.

Tiebreaker talk: Indiana's road win at Oregon was one of the single-most impressive victories across college football this season and put the Hoosiers in the driver's seat within the league title race. That's an important tiebreaker should both teams finish with one conference loss, along with the last-second win at Iowa on Sept. 27.

Ohio State (7-0, 4-0)

Clearest path: Whatever Ryan Day's telling his team this season, it's working. They've blistered every squad they've played, and defensively, there's not an elite in the country performing at a more dominant clip. Win out and the Buckeyes are a guaranteed top four seed in the playoff and will be wearing scarlet at Lucas Oil Stadium.

Chaos scenario: The Buckeyes' most competitive Big Ten games this season came on the road against Washington and Illinois, a pair of 18-point victories. They've dominated in conference play and will be multi-touchdown favorites against Penn State, UCLA, Purdue and Rutgers next month before the potential fly in the ointment -- Michigan.

Tiebreaker talk: If unbeaten and top-ranked Ohio State loses to the Wolverines on Nov. 29, that could create a multi-team tie for second place in the conference standings and may send Oregon to the league title game against Indiana based on record against the three tied teams' common opponents.

Oregon (7-1, 4-1)

Clearest path: The Ducks need help. There's no yellow brick road to Indianapolis since the Hoosiers and Buckeyes are unbeaten heading into Week 10 in conference play, and Oregon already lost to one of those titans at home. Finishing 11-1 and getting some rest before the playoff might result in a better showing in December this time around.

Chaos scenario: Indiana or Ohio State losing twice would be an early Christmas present for the Ducks if Dan Lanning's team wants a crack at defending its conference crown. That's unlikely and would take World War III down the stretch within the conference from a collection of bad teams suddenly playing well for that to come to fruition.

Tiebreaker talk: Oregon will play for a conference title if the Ducks beat Iowa, Minnesota, Washington and USC and get some assistance from Michigan against Ohio State during rivalry weekend. That would create a three-team tie and Oregon has the edge there since the Wolverines would hold a head-to-head tiebreaker over the Buckeyes and Michigan's lone Big Ten loss -- USC -- would've been a win for the Ducks.

Michigan (6-2, 4-1)

Clearest path: Control what you can control. That's got to be the message for Sherrone Moore with his team entering the final stretch. If the Wolverines take care of business against Purdue, Northwestern and Maryland, then the home finale against Ohio State could be for a spot in Indianapolis. They do not control their own destiny, however, even by winning out.

Chaos scenario: Grab a chair for this. Michigan needs to win its last four games -- including a victory over the Buckeyes for the fifth straight year -- and must get another loss by USC since the Trojans hold a head-to-head tiebreaker. Also, Oregon needs to lose to Minnesota or Washington, which aids the Wolverines in avoiding getting into -- and losing -- a three-team, one-loss tiebreaker situation.

Tiebreaker talk: Much of this changes if Indiana struggles in November with multiple losses and the entire conference title conversation is thrown for a loop, but that's not happening. For the most part, Wolverines fans won't sweat losing any sort of tiebreaker in getting to Indianapolis if it means beating Ohio State, finishing 10-2 overall and getting into the playoff.

Iowa (6-2, 4-1)

Clearest path: The Hawkeyes are a late stop against Indiana away from being unbeaten in the Big Ten and ranked inside the top 10 this season. Really. With opportunities next month against nationally ranked Oregon and USC, the Hawkeyes could torch most current playoff projections by staying hot and running the table.

Chaos scenario: Picture this -- Indiana wins out and Ohio State loses to Michigan during rivalry weekend. Where would that leave Iowa, in a three-way tie for second place with the Buckeyes and Wolverines? Iowa would get the nod since its record against common opponents with Michigan would be 4-0 vs. the Wolverines 3-1 (loss to USC).

Tiebreaker talk: Laid out above, Hawkeyes fans are going to be glued to Ohio State-Michigan in late November as long as this team doesn't get tripped up over the next four weeks and beat Nebraska on Black Friday.

USC (5-2, 3-1)

Clearest path: Think USC would love a do-over against Illinois? That late blown lead is the only game keeping the Trojans out of the Big Ten's top-tier at this junction. The rebound win over Michigan was much-needed, and if USC wins out from here, it applies pressure to Indiana and Ohio State at the top.

Chaos scenario: Excluding Indiana from the conversation, USC will play in Indianapolis if the Trojans go 5-0 next month and Michigan beats Ohio State on Nov. 29. That would put USC in a three-way tie for second and gives the Trojans the nod due to their head-to-head win over the Wolverines.

Tiebreaker talk: Getting to the playoff should be the goal for Lincoln Riley with a Big Ten title game appearance secondary. If USC wins out, including victories over Iowa and Oregon, the 10-win Trojans should be in the at-large mix when the selection committee meets for a final time in December.